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This Element reviews and augments research on changes over time in U.S. crime rates during the past several decades. Major topics include the data sources for studying crime trends; the relationship between homicide rates and rates of property crime, imprisonment, and firearm availability; trends in crime by sex, race, and age; the relationship between crime trends and economic conditions; crime trends and social institutions; abrupt changes in crime rates and exogenous shocks; forecasting crime rates; and the future of crime trends theory and research. The study of crime trends is as intellectually rewarding and practically important as any topic in criminology. But attracting scholars to this field of study of crime trends will require significant advancements in theory, methods, and policy application.

AbstractThe study of crime trends has proceeded along two paths: 1) normal science investigations of slow‐moving and tractable changes in crime rates and explanatory conditions and 2) research encounters with unexpected and abrupt changes in crime rates resulting from exogenous shocks. I draw from my research on the relationship between crime rates and changing macroeconomic conditions to illustrate the pains and pleasures of studying crime trends with the tools of normal science. I describe my exploratory investigations of the recent homicide rise in the United States to underscore the theoretical importance and methodological challenges of research on exogenous shocks to crime rates. Finally, I hope to convey to the next generation of criminologists the intellectual excitement that comes from the study of crime trends.

Graphic presentation of the costs of incarceration and the benefits of alternative sentencing in Missouri. Data representations include graphs and tables. ; Presented at Missouri Legislative Academy Luncheon University of Missouri--St Louis, March 14, 2003.

Skyrocketing violent crime rates obsessed Americans for decades. Crime rates have now been dropping for 10 years. What has happened, and how can we learn from it?

This paper assesses the theoretical and policy significance of one of Robert Merton's most influential contributions to modern sociology, the anomie or "strain" theory of deviant behavior. The enduring theoretical significance of strain theory lies in its sociological completeness. Strain theory preserves the interconnection between culture and social structure which is neglected or defined away by cultural and control theories of deviance. In its emphasis on socially structured contradictions in the relations of consumption, strain theory is also broadly consistent with and complements more conflict‐oriented theories of crime and deviance. A major weakness of Merton's argument is its failure to clearly distinguish the etiological significance of the distribution of opportunities (mobility) and the distribution of outcomes (equality), which has led to misinterpretations of the policy implications of strain theory. Ironically, these problems are revealed through a kind of self‐criticism that applies the basic tools of Mertonian functional analysis to strain theory. The paper concludes that, ambiguities notwithstanding, for purposes of theoretical integration and substantive insight, strain theory remains an important sociological perspective on deviance, especially when set in the context of Merton's broader sociological legacy.

Despite its long history in criminology, research on the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and rates of common crime remains limited. That is in part because many analysts doubt that any systematic relationship exists and in part because of disagreement with regard to the validity of the indicators typically used to measure economic conditions. We argue in this article that good theoretical reasons exist to expect macroeconomic effects on crime rates, but many theories imply that collective perceptions of economic hardship should have effects on crime that are independent of those of more "objective" economic indicators. To evaluate this argument, we examine the relationships between the Index of Consumer Sentiment and regional robbery, burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft rates in the United States between 1970 and 2003, which was a period of large swings in both consumer sentiment and instrumental crime. Controlling for several factors thought to influence temporal variation in crime rates, we find that consumer sentiment had significant effects on robbery and property crime rates over the period that were largely independent of the effects of unemployment and economic growth. We also find that consumer sentiment accounted for a sizable fraction of the crime decline during the 1990s and yields reasonably accurate predictions of changes in the four offenses in 2004 and in two of the four offenses in 2005. We conclude that the effects of collective economic perceptions should become an important focus of future research on crime trends.

"In the current economic climate, this book could not be more timely. One of the world's leading experts explores the connections between crime and economic conditions, linking the formal economy to the operation of illegal markets and both, in turn, to changes in the forms and levels of crime over time. The book offers a readable, interesting and accessible analysis, covering a range of theoretical and empirical approaches. It addresses a range of different criminal activities, including: violent crime ; burglary ; drug crime ; white collar crime ; organised crime ; fraud ; corporate crime. Crime and the Economy is written in plain English, technical terms (when used) are be explained clearly, examples punctuate the discussion, and visual material is used throughout to explain the topics under discussion. It is essential reading for undergraduates and graduates in criminology and sociology."--Publisher's website

"After reviewing the area's performance on the standard indicators of growth and development, this volume identifies several hidden assets that distinguish St. Louis from other metropolitan areas"--Provided by publisher

Research on race effects in police traffic stops is theoretically underdeveloped. In this study, we derive propositions from Donald Black's theory of law to explain the interaction effects of officer and driver race on searches in traffic stops in St. Louis, Missouri. Our citywide results and those for stops in predominantly White communities are generally consistent with the theory: Searches are more likely in stops of Black drivers than in those of White drivers, especially by White officers, controlling for other characteristics of the officer, driver, and stop. In predominantly Black communities, however, stops of White drivers by White officers are most likely to result in a search. We interpret both sets of results as manifestations of racial profiling in segregated communities and suggest that Black's theory of law remains a promising theoretical framework for future research on the continuing significance of race‐based policing in the United States.

Trends and year‐to‐year deviations in UCR and NCS data on burglary and robbery are examined for the period 1973 to 1985. We find strong correspondence between year‐to‐year deviations in UCR crime rates and NCS victimization rates for both crime types. The difference between the two data series lies primarily in their contrasting trends, although there is some evidence that trends in UCR and NCS crime rates have been converging in recent years. Ex post forecasts reveal that the UCR/NCS relationships estimated from the 1973–1985 data continued through 1986 and 1987. Although the UCR rates in 1986 were somewhat influenced by unusual increases in the proportion of crimes reported to the police that year, changes in crime reporting for the period as a whole have had little effect on UCR burglary and robbery rates. We conclude that, within the two serious crime types examined in this study, there is strong consistency between the alternative data sources on variations in crime rates over time.