Austerity policies coupled with rising inequality in Europe have resulted in a prolonged stagnation and a vicious circle of chronically low demand, slow down in investment and productivity, and economic, social and political instability. In order to end this vicious cycle, Europe needs directed public investment policies accompanied by industrial policy, higher equality, stimulated demand, and regulation of finance and corporate governance. Our research presents strong empirical evidence that expansionary fiscal policy is sustainable when wage and public investment policies are combined with progressive tax policy; the impact is stronger when these policies are implemented in a coordinated fashion across Europe due to strong positive spill over effects on demand. A strong investment performance also requires a process of de-financialization of the economy and a new approach to corporate governance.
The economic, financial and institutional crisis which started in 2008 looks like it is never going to end. Nearly 9 years after the meltdown of the financial system of developed countries, after a violent recession followed by the euro debt crisis in 2012, a recovery finally started in late 2014. It has been pushed by a mix of fair winds, such as low oil prices, low interest rates, a lower effective exchange rate of the euro, a less negative fiscal stance in the euro area and unconventional monetary policies. Adding to those fair winds, the Juncker commission took stock of the worrying situation in 2015 and proposed the Juncker Plan to boost (mostly private) investment in the EU.
The economic, financial and institutional crisis which started in 2008 looks like it is never going to end. Nearly 9 years after the meltdown of the financial system of developed countries, after a violent recession followed by the euro debt crisis in 2012, a recovery finally started in late 2014. It has been pushed by a mix of fair winds, such as low oil prices, low interest rates, a lower effective exchange rate of the euro, a less negative fiscal stance in the euro area and unconventional monetary policies. Adding to those fair winds, the Juncker commission took stock of the worrying situation in 2015 and proposed the Juncker Plan to boost (mostly private) investment in the EU.
The economic, financial and institutional crisis which started in 2008 looks like it is never going to end. Nearly 9 years after the meltdown of the financial system of developed countries, after a violent recession followed by the euro debt crisis in 2012, a recovery finally started in late 2014. It has been pushed by a mix of fair winds, such as low oil prices, low interest rates, a lower effective exchange rate of the euro, a less negative fiscal stance in the euro area and unconventional monetary policies. Adding to those fair winds, the Juncker commission took stock of the worrying situation in 2015 and proposed the Juncker Plan to boost (mostly private) investment in the EU.
The economic, financial and institutional crisis which started in 2008 looks like it is never going to end. Nearly 9 years after the meltdown of the financial system of developed countries, after a violent recession followed by the euro debt crisis in 2012, a recovery finally started in late 2014. It has been pushed by a mix of fair winds, such as low oil prices, low interest rates, a lower effective exchange rate of the euro, a less negative fiscal stance in the euro area and unconventional monetary policies. Adding to those fair winds, the Juncker commission took stock of the worrying situation in 2015 and proposed the Juncker Plan to boost (mostly private) investment in the EU.
The economic, financial and institutional crisis which started in 2008 looks like it is never going to end. Nearly 9 years after the meltdown of the financial system of developed countries, after a violent recession followed by the euro debt crisis in 2012, a recovery finally started in late 2014. It has been pushed by a mix of fair winds, such as low oil prices, low interest rates, a lower effective exchange rate of the euro, a less negative fiscal stance in the euro area and unconventional monetary policies. Adding to those fair winds, the Juncker commission took stock of the worrying situation in 2015 and proposed the Juncker Plan to boost (mostly private) investment in the EU.
The economic, financial and institutional crisis which started in 2008 looks like it is never going to end. Nearly 9 years after the meltdown of the financial system of developed countries, after a violent recession followed by the euro debt crisis in 2012, a recovery finally started in late 2014. It has been pushed by a mix of fair winds, such as low oil prices, low interest rates, a lower effective exchange rate of the euro, a less negative fiscal stance in the euro area and unconventional monetary policies. Adding to those fair winds, the Juncker commission took stock of the worrying situation in 2015 and proposed the Juncker Plan to boost (mostly private) investment in the EU.
Previous chapters have addressed the need for a a different policy mix in Europe, with a greater emphasis on fiscal policy and for policies to address imbalances within, in particular, the Euro Area. There is a third economic policy area in which reform is under way, but in Europe needs to intensify its efforts and make careful, evidence-based choices: finance. The specific features and dysfunctionalities of economic governance in Europe have exacerbated the crisis but this, it should not be forgotten, was originally triggered by problems in the financial sector. Since then national governments, not only in Europe but across the world, have been struggling to establish a sensible regulatory framework for the financial sector, one that permits, even promotes, low-cost lending for real investment and maintains an efficient payments system, while avoiding the pathologies that have caused instability and rising inequalities. Because of the transnational nature of the financial sector, the EU-level has also been heavily involved in developing the regulatory framework. The two main "building sites" are Banking Union, on which considerable progress has already been made, and the incipient Capital Markets Union. In this concluding chapter we first consider the problem of non-performing loans and discuss the policy options availbe for addressing the problem. We then turn to Capital markets Union, describing the initiatives under discussion, with a focus on proposals to reactivate the securitization market in Europe.
The last year Report of the Five Presidents highlighted the necessity of progress in the EU in four directions: achieving "a genuine Economic Union, (…) a FinancialUnion, (…) a Fiscal Union, (and) a Political Union". The associated roadmap for completing the EMU includes a greater focus on employment, a better implementation of the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure, a better assessment of fiscal stance and fiscal sustainability, the completion of the BankingUnion and the launch of a Capital Markets Union. They thus pointed to a very large set of ambitions which renewed the debate about the consistency ofexisting 6-pack, 2-pack and Fiscal compact, which were mainly related to fiscal and competitiveness issues. This roadmap raises an important question: is it possible within the given institutional setting to close the unemployment gap (the difference between actual and natural rates of unemployment), that is to say increase the "well-being of the peoples" (Art. 3 TEU) in a sustainable way, achieve public finance sustainability, reduce macro imbalances, and ensure the liquidity and solvency offinancial institutions and other objectives at the same moment?
As we will see in this chapter, there has been some improvement in the European Labour market in the last couple of years. However, unemployment remains high, especially long-term and youth unemployment. This raises the question of human capital depreciation, stigmatisation and unemployment hysteresis. At the same time both inequality and poverty are continuing have increased since the crisis started European economic policy barely takes into account the academic consensus that measurement of economic performance and social progress is necessary and has to go beyond GDP. To facilitate evidence-based well-being oriented economic policy, we need to reform the European Economic Governance and to establish some kind of sustainable development indicators (SDI) to measure progress beyond economic growth. The SDIs should take into account the protection of the natural capital and social justice to help define and improvepolicies. SDIs show reasons for optimism in some areas, while substantial progress needs to be done in other areas, including poverty. The chapter shows a very heterogeneous Europe in terms of unemployment, inequality and sustainability. Therefore, both EU as a whole and the dispersion between countries are analyzed in this chapter.
Previous chapters have addressed the need for a a different policy mix in Europe, with a greater emphasis on fiscal policy and for policies to address imbalances within, in particular, the Euro Area. There is a third economic policy area in which reform is under way, but in Europe needs to intensify its efforts and make careful, evidence-based choices: finance. The specific features and dysfunctionalities of economic governance in Europe have exacerbated the crisis but this, it should not be forgotten, was originally triggered by problems in the financial sector. Since then national governments, not only in Europe but across the world, have been struggling to establish a sensible regulatory framework for the financial sector, one that permits, even promotes, low-cost lending for real investment and maintains an efficient payments system, while avoiding the pathologies that have caused instability and rising inequalities. Because of the transnational nature of the financial sector, the EU-level has also been heavily involved in developing the regulatory framework. The two main "building sites" are Banking Union, on which considerable progress has already been made, and the incipient Capital Markets Union. In this concluding chapter we first consider the problem of non-performing loans and discuss the policy options availbe for addressing the problem. We then turn to Capital markets Union, describing the initiatives under discussion, with a focus on proposals to reactivate the securitization market in Europe.
As we will see in this chapter, there has been some improvement in the European Labour market in the last couple of years. However, unemployment remains high, especially long-term and youth unemployment. This raises the question of human capital depreciation, stigmatisation and unemployment hysteresis. At the same time both inequality and poverty are continuing have increased since the crisis started European economic policy barely takes into account the academic consensus that measurement of economic performance and social progress is necessary and has to go beyond GDP. To facilitate evidence-based well-being oriented economic policy, we need to reform the European Economic Governance and to establish some kind of sustainable development indicators (SDI) to measure progress beyond economic growth. The SDIs should take into account the protection of the natural capital and social justice to help define and improvepolicies. SDIs show reasons for optimism in some areas, while substantial progress needs to be done in other areas, including poverty. The chapter shows a very heterogeneous Europe in terms of unemployment, inequality and sustainability. Therefore, both EU as a whole and the dispersion between countries are analyzed in this chapter.
While a Grexit was avoided in the summer 2015, the same was not true for a Brexit, as on 23 June 2016 British voters chose to leave the EU. This should, however, be a slow process since the United Kingdom and the European Union have a period of two years following notification by the British government of its decision to implement Article 50 of the Treaty on the European Union to come to an agreement specifying the conditions for withdrawal. This is triggering a new political crisis in Europe that will have long-term implications, as the agreement will redefine not only trade relations between the EU and UK but also the conditions governing the movement of people.
While a Grexit was avoided in the summer 2015, the same was not true for a Brexit, as on 23 June 2016 British voters chose to leave the EU. This should, however, be a slow process since the United Kingdom and the European Union have a period of two years following notification by the British government of its decision to implement Article 50 of the Treaty on the European Union to come to an agreement specifying the conditions for withdrawal. This is triggering a new political crisis in Europe that will have long-term implications, as the agreement will redefine not only trade relations between the EU and UK but also the conditions governing the movement of people.
As we will see in this chapter, there has been some improvement in the European Labour market in the last couple of years. However, unemployment remains high, especially long-term and youth unemployment. This raises the question of human capital depreciation, stigmatisation and unemployment hysteresis. At the same time both inequality and poverty are continuing have increased since the crisis started European economic policy barely takes into account the academic consensus that measurement of economic performance and social progress is necessary and has to go beyond GDP. To facilitate evidence-based well-being oriented economic policy, we need to reform the European Economic Governance and to establish some kind of sustainable development indicators (SDI) to measure progress beyond economic growth. The SDIs should take into account the protection of the natural capital and social justice to help define and improvepolicies. SDIs show reasons for optimism in some areas, while substantial progress needs to be done in other areas, including poverty. The chapter shows a very heterogeneous Europe in terms of unemployment, inequality and sustainability. Therefore, both EU as a whole and the dispersion between countries are analyzed in this chapter.
