Suchergebnisse

Current paper analyzes the developments of extreme fluctuations of floating African currencies in the light of developments on Euro to US dollar market between 2000 and 2015. Sample countries trade destinations are well diversified nowadays, but the US and European trade relations are still significant. Currency fluctuations are evaluated by the developments in their foreign trade and monetary policy as well, but the existing political, real and financial links were not able to cause contagion under recession periods or at extreme trading days.

The transmission mechanism has been dominated by direct monetary measures since the crisis of 2008. While the indirect impacts of the unconventional monetary instruments have not been fully explored yet. Monetary policy and funding conditions determine pricing sentiments for bond, stock and currency markets, represented by the volatilities of their main indicators: stock market indices, exchange rates, and yield premia. Our theoretical model takes spillover effects into account when it determines the variables which are responsible for volatility: the activities of international financial institutions (like the ESM or the IMF) are represented by dummy variables, while the limited autonomy in the shadow of the ECB is captured through gravity-like approaches. Six EU member states outside the Eurozone and Switzerland were analysed between 2007 and 2019 with random effect panel regression models to identify the differences in the impact of spillover effects on capital market volatilities. The results obtained are considered to be useful in mapping the potential effects of continuing monetary easing in the near future

The transmission mechanism has been dominated by direct monetary measures since the crisis of 2008. While the indirect impacts of the unconventional monetary instruments have not been fully explored yet. Monetary policy and funding conditions determine pricing sentiments for bond, stock and currency markets, represented by the volatilities of their main indicators: stock market indices, exchange rates, and yield premia. Our theoretical model takes spillover effects into account when it determines the variables which are responsible for volatility: the activities of international financial institutions (like the ESM or the IMF) are represented by dummy variables, while the limited autonomy in the shadow of the ECB is captured through gravity-like approaches. Six EU member states outside the Eurozone and Switzerland were analysed between 2007 and 2019 with random effect panel regression models to identify the differences in the impact of spillover effects on capital market volatilities. The results obtained are considered to be useful in mapping the potential effects of continuing monetary easing in the near future.

The paper tested contagion effects among free floating African currencies and Euro with a control variable like the Euro-pegged CFA Franc. Contagion should be based on deep trade, funding and political relationships which was valid for connections between African countries and such developed countries like the United States or the Eurozone. The theory suggests increased common movements under shock periods which were tested on a daily time series between 2000 and 2015, studying relationships under recession periods in the United States or the Eurozone or under days with extreme fluctuation. The results presented contagions only for the emerging South African currency while the others proved to be relatively independent.

Analysing aid activities has been in the centre of academic research; nevertheless, it is demanding to conduct long-term time series analyses due to missing data. Although there are several methods available to overcome this challenge, their distortion effect may result in unpredicted impacts on aid allocation. Thus, this paper aims to analyse the long-term motivations of US aid allocation with panel regression models. Two methods of handling missing data were tested in order to answer the question whether there is a significant difference in the results or not. Results suggest that there are several tools in the hands of a researcher to overcome missing data problems without any distorting effects. Furthermore, results reinforce the idea that US aid allocation has mainly been motivated by its economic drivers (export possibilities) rather than by war or conflict fears in the long run.

AbstractThe SARS‐CoV‐2 coronavirus pandemic has raised public debt sustainability issues, especially for Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC). Developing countries with limited fiscal space have had to take on significant external debts to help deal with the negative effects of the pandemic. This has led to further increases in the debt levels of these countries, with the potential to trigger a debt default. Addressing these issues, this study uses a framework for fiscal policy and public debt sustainability analysis. The results confirm the impact of the SARS‐CoV‐2 coronavirus pandemic on the debt levels of Ghana and Kenya. This study recommends the creation of domestic fiscal buffers and fiscal space toward the attainment of long‐term debt sustainability, contrary to the popular view of offering debt relief to these countries.