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An Analysis of Global House Price using Decision Tree Model
In: THE JOURNAL OF SOCIAL SCIENCE, Band 29, Heft 1, S. 107-122
Revisiting a Gravity Model of Immigration: A Panel Data Analysis of Economic Determinants
In: East Asian Economic Review Vol. 26 No. 2 (June 2022) 143-169, https://dx.doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2022.26.2.408
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International Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy Surprises
In: KIEP Research Paper, Working Papers 16-05
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Working paper
Foreign aid, exchange rate regime, and agricultural trade
In: Applied economic perspectives and policy
ISSN: 2040-5804
AbstractThe least developed agrarian countries often face an ironic situation where well‐intentioned foreign aid adversely influences their economies. This study explores the unintended consequences of official development assistance (ODA) from donor countries on agricultural exports from recipient countries by appreciating their domestic exchange rates. Motivated by the fact that ODA accounts for a larger share of their total GDP, we first examine whether ODA inflows increase the real effective exchange rate of the recipient country. Leveraging data from 47 countries over the period 2001–2018, we find that ODA inflows lead to real exchange rate appreciation, particularly in recipient countries with floating exchange rate regimes that are more susceptible to exchange rate fluctuations. Moreover, our results reveal that ODA inflows decrease agricultural exports in low‐income agrarian economies adopting floating exchange rate regimes. By taking a unique perspective of ODA as an inflow of foreign capital, this study highlights the importance of understanding the exchange rate regime and agricultural trade of the agrarian economy when providing international aid.
Foreign Aid, Exchange Rate Regime, and Agricultural Trade
SSRN
Effect of news and noise shocks of US monetary policy on economic fluctuations in emerging market economies
In: The Canadian journal of economics: the journal of the Canadian Economics Association = Revue canadienne d'économique, Band 55, Heft 4, S. 1862-1893
ISSN: 1540-5982
AbstractThis study investigates the effect of news and noise shocks of US monetary policy on economic fluctuations in emerging market economies. In the first part of our two‐step estimation method, the news and noise shocks of US monetary policy are estimated using dynamic structural vector autoregression identification. In the second step, the impact of the news and noise shocks on macro variables reflecting the business cycle (e.g., production, consumption, investment and trade balance) is examined using local projection. Our empirical results show no significant differences in the responses to both shocks at the early stage, when news and noise are not separable. However, when the monetary policy becomes known, emerging market economies enter a full‐scale recession with respect to a news shock of raised US interest rates. Meanwhile, emerging market economies enter an economic boom phase of the business cycle when the shock turns out to be noise. Fluctuations driven by noise are likely to incur greater costs than normal economic fluctuations because the former are out of sync with the fundamentals.
Time‐varying effect of monetary policy on capital flows in Korea
In: Pacific economic review
ISSN: 1468-0106
AbstractThis paper examines the effect of domestic monetary policy on capital flows after controlling for the effect of conventional push factors (global factors). We conduct a time‐varying coefficient vector autoregressive (TVC‐VAR) model analysis using monthly data (January 2010–July 2019) from Korea. Our empirical results show that an expansionary monetary policy shock has a short‐run (1‐ and 3‐month) negative impact on gross inflows to the equity market, which is the main driver of gross capital inflows to Korea. This negative effect increases throughout the sample period. Monetary policy easing is also associated with a decrease in outflows of equity, representing a reversal of Korean residents' foreign equity investment as the domestic policy rate decreases. This effect dampens the negative impact on gross capital inflows, which leads to mild responses of net capital inflows in the short run. We also find a clear relationship between the level of the policy rate and its impact on gross capital inflows. The lower the policy rate, the greater the negative impact of the expansionary monetary policy shock on gross capital inflows. This time‐varying effect reflects difficulties that many emerging market economies, including Korea, face in setting monetary policy when policy rates are low.
The Effect of Export Insurance and Guarantees on Export Performance: An Empirical Analysis for Korea
In: KIEP No. Working Paper 19-04
SSRN
Working paper
미국 통화정책의 국제전이: 뉴스와 노이즈 효과 분석을 중심으로(International Transmission of US Monetary Policy: Role of News and Noise Information)
In: KIEP No. Policy Analyses 19-01
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Working paper
Real and Financial Vulnerabilities from Crossborder Banking Linkages
In: IMF Working Paper No. 14/136
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Working paper
Financial Market Integration and Income Inequality
In: East Asian Economic Review Vol. 25 No. 2 (June 2021) 175-203
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Korea's Macroprudential Policies for Capital Flows: Accomplishments and Road to Improvement
In: KIEP Research Paper, World Economy Brief 21-06
SSRN
수출기업의 금융구조와 수출 간의 관계에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Relationship between Financial Structure of Korean Firm and Exports)
In: KIEP Research Paper, Policy Analyses 16-02
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Working paper
Mega Flood Inundation Analysis and the Selection of Optimal Shelters
In recent decades, extreme storm events due to climate change have frequently occurred worldwide, a few of which have even occurred consecutively; we class such rainfall events as mega events. That is to say, if the inter-arrival time between rainfall events with a 100-year frequency is less than the IETD (Inter-Event Time Definition), the event can be considered a mega event. Therefore, the aim of this study was to implement flood inundation analysis using the hypothetical mega event from two consecutively occurring events of 100-year frequency, and select the optimal shelters using a developed method for minimizing casualties from floods. The Gyeongan stream basin, which is a tributary of the Namhan River in Korea, was selected as the study area. This study calculates mega flood discharge using the SSARR (Stream Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation) model, and conducts a flood inundation analysis of mega floods via the level pool method and the HEC-GeoRAS model. An inundation map was constructed, and the inundated area was classified into three zones and five administrative districts. Sixteen shelters were selected as candidates based on the criteria of the local government safety management plans and the Guidelines for Establishing the Disaster Relief Plan of 2013. To evaluate the candidates for evacuation in each district, we selected seven evaluation indicators from the shelter criteria of several countries, and calculated the weights of the indicators using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. As a result, four optimal shelters were selected in the study area. The results of the study can be used as the basic information for analyzing mega natural disaster events and inundation, and for establishing evacuation shelters, which are one of the non-structural flood protection measures.
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