Blueprint for offshore wind in Ireland 2020-2050: A Research Synthesis
This document is a synthesis of the research conducted by the EirWind project team, over a two-year period from August 2018 to July 2020. It presents a blueprint for consideration by policymakers. The approach to this research synthesis places the market as the central factor for analysis. As previously stated, Ireland has an abundant wind resource, requiring export markets to realise its considerable potential. The market opportunities described in this report, start with national targets for 70% of renewable electricity by 2030. In response, the Arklow project and the seven 'relevant projects' identified by the government this year, will be the game-changers; - the projects that will pave the way for future development. Effective delivery of the Renewable Energy Support Scheme (RESS) is central to this in the early 2020s. There is a considerable learning curve to be achieved in the decade ahead, to get things right for these projects which are at various stages of development. EirWind analysed three scenarios for production zones in the Irish Sea, the Celtic Sea and the Atlantic. The bottom-fixed offshore wind scenario in the Irish Sea, for a 500MW farm coming on-stream in 2025, is the most cost-effective with an estimated range of €51-66/MWh. Floating offshore wind in the Celtic Sea shows considerable potential; an estimated Levelized Cost of Energy (LCoE) range of €63-90/MWh for circa 1GW coming on stream in 2035. For the Atlantic zone, the wind resource yields a high capacity factor (62%). The estimated LCoE range (€75-107/MWh for 1GW from c.2035) is higher than the Irish and Celtic Sea scenarios, primarily due to the harsher conditions reducing the number of weather windows available to complete offshore operations. EirWind findings indicate that there is a route to market for up to 25GW of offshore wind in Ireland, with 6.5GW to 7.3GW possible by 2030, taking development scenarios for existing electricity transmission and future green hydrogen production into consideration. The potential is possibly much ...