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In: Journal of international trade & economic development: an international and comparative review, Band 27, Heft 7, S. 806-829
ISSN: 1469-9559
In: Emerging markets, finance and trade: EMFT, Band 54, Heft 7, S. 1557-1577
ISSN: 1558-0938
In: NBER Working Paper No. w23500
SSRN
In: CESifo economic studies: a joint initiative of the University of Munich's Center for Economic Studies and the Ifo Institute, Band 67, Heft 1, S. 78-105
ISSN: 1612-7501
Abstract
The 2008 financial crisis did not precipitate global retaliatory trade intervention, in seeming contrast to the Great Depression in 1930s. This article discusses the influence of model structure in optimal tariff (OT) calculations in explaining this puzzle. We emphasize how earlier literature reports high OTs in numerical calculation (of a hundred percent) but only uses simple trade models. We use numerical general equilibrium (GE) calibration and simulation methodology to calculate OTs both with and without retaliation in a series of observationally equivalent models and explore the influence of model structures on OT levels. We gradually add more realistic features into the basic GE model, and show sharply declined OTs, which suggests that trade retaliation incentives effectively disappear with the deepening of globalization in 2008 compared to 1930. (JEL codes: F11, C63, F13).
In: Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Band 63, Heft 3, S. 575-592
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