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Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine confirmed that revived great-power competition has heightened the prospect of global conflict, while restoring the concept of deterrence to centre stage. The stakes in a conflict in East Asia, however, would be even higher than those in Ukraine. A war over Taiwan could bring the United States and China, the world's two greatest powers, into a direct military conflict which would represent a contest for regional or global leadership and would be likely to draw other powers into the fight. Such a war - in which the nuclear question would be ever-present - can currently be described as 'possible, avoidable, but potentially catastrophic'. In this Adelphi book, Bill Emmott evaluates the diplomatic and deterrence strategies that countries in and outside the Indo-Pacific region are using to try to reduce the risk of that conflict occurring. This book examines these strategies in the light of the lessons of the Ukraine war and identifies yardsticks with which to gauge their potential effectiveness and sustainability. Our goal, Emmott argues, must be for all sides to regard such a US-China conflict as 'inevitably catastrophic and therefore inconceivable'.

Through analysis of trends and policy options, combined with interviews with 21 female role models from business to the arts, Bill Emmott takes an optimistic look at how a society with an extreme level of gender inequality, an ageing population, and slow economic growth can achieve greater social justice and sustainable prosperity for the future.

"When faced with global instability and economic uncertainty, it is tempting for states to react by closing borders, hoarding wealth and solidifying power. We have seen it at various times in Japan, France and Italy and now it is infecting all of Europe and America, as the vote for Brexit in the UK has vividly shown. This insularity, together with increased inequality of income and wealth threatens the future role of the West as a font of stability, prosperity and security. Part of the problem is that the principles of liberal democracy upon which the success of the West has been built have been suborned, with special interest groups such as bankers accruing too much power and too great a share of the economic cake. So how is this threat to be countered? States such as Sweden in the 1990s, California at different times or Britain under Thatcher all halted stagnation by clearing away the powers of interest groups and restoring their societies' ability to evolve. To survive, the West needs to be porous, open and flexible. From reinventing welfare systems to redefining the working age, from reimagining education to embracing automation, Emmott lays out the changes the West must make to revive itself in the moment and avoid a deathly rigid future"--Provided by publisher.

Intro -- Title Page -- Front -- 1. ASIA'S NEW POWER GAME -- 2. A CONTINENT CREATED -- 3. CHINA: MIDDLE COUNTRY, CENTRAL ISSUE -- 4. JAPAN: POWERFUL, VULNERABLE, AGING -- 5. INDIA: MULTITUDES, MUDDLE, MOMENTUM -- 6. A PLANET PRESSURED -- 7. BLOOD, MEMORY AND LAND -- 8. FLASH POINTS AND DANGER ZONES -- 9. ASIAN DRAMA -- Back.

Asia's new power game -- A continent created -- China's middle country, central issue -- Japan's powerful, vulnerable, aging -- India's multitudes, muddle, momentum -- A planet pressured -- Blood, memory, and land -- Flashpoints and danger zones -- Asian drama