Drought, Infrastructure and Conflict Risk in Sub-Saharan Africa
Recent years have seen a surge in the number of scientific studies, reports and newspaper articles portraying possible connections between climate variability and violent conflict. As sudden changes in temperature and precipitation are expected to become more frequent in certain areas due to climate change, researchers and decision-makers alike have become increasingly worried about the security implications of extreme events such as droughts and floods. Concerns are that such events could undermine people's livelihoods, exacerbate social tensions and eventually contribute to political instability and violence, with crises in Syria, Darfur and the Western Sahel being frequently mentioned as examples. Yet, despite the vocal nature of those linking climate variability and violent conflict risk and the plausibility of some of their arguments, the empirical connection between the two phenomena is far from evident. Overall, we observe that violence is a far less common reaction to climatic shocks than peaceful adaptation or just silent suffering. Where it emerges, the relationship between climate variability and violent conflict is complex and contingent on further conflict-enabling societal conditions. Systematic knowledge about these conditions and the way in which they shape climate-conflict dynamics remains currently limited, which restricts our ability to understand climate-conflict linkages and assess potential climate-security risks. The present dissertation addresses this gap. Particular emphasis is placed on road and water infrastructures and on the way in which they influence the relationship between drought and conflict risk in Sub-Saharan Africa. Extreme precipitation shortfalls and their disastrous consequences for rain-fed agriculture and pastoralism are frequently discussed in the literature as possible threats to the peace and stability of African states. At the same time, there are reasons to believe that key infrastructures, such as roads and water delivery systems, would mediate the relationship ...