Suchergebnisse

Abstract
The economic openness and reindustrialization. Can these two occurrences exist at the same time? The empirical experience of the East European countries tells us that they cannot. Trade liberalization in the transition countries implemented during the 1990s led to the process of deindustrialization which continued also during the 2000s. The goal of this paper is to present the possible directions for reform of the international trade system which would enable reindustrialization of the small countries in East Europe with simultaneous preservation of the achieved level of trade liberalization. Admittedly, we are separated from the win-win situation by the conviction that this is only possible if the compensation principle is applied on the global trade, according to which the winners in the global trade (developed countries with trade surplus), should compensate to the losers (small insufficiently developed countries) a part of their losses with mandatory support to programs of reindustrialization based on exports, for which the funds are chronically lacking. An alternative is reindustrialization based on import substitution i.e. strengthening of the protectionism, where all benefits of the free trade could vanish so in the end everybody would be in loss.

The mobility of factors of production from the very beginnings of the theory of the optimal currency area (OCA) stands out as one of the primary mechanisms for achieving a balance of payments, i.e. sustainability of the monetary union (Mundell criterion). However, there is a significant qualitative difference between the monetary union of countries with similar income levels and the one with different development stages Namely, in the first case, labor mobility, as a rule, has short-term economic effects, while it has a longer-term (more negative) impact – especially on the long-run aggregate supply (LRAS). Many Eastern European countries, which expressed a desire to become part of European integration and the monetary union after the communist ruin, experienced this. In a previous paper, the authors set the thesis about "Impossible Trinity of Developing Countries". In this paper, the aspiration is to confirm the validity of this theory by analyzing Greece within the period 1999-2020, specifically observing the impact of three variables (fiscal policy, social development level, and level of economic freedom) on the emigration of the population under conditions of monetary union and labor force mobility. The results obtained in this research indicate that the fiscal policy in the observed period was the most significant factor in explaining migration trends. The implications for developing countries that are currently entering (such as Croatia) or intend to enter the monetary union with more developed countries in the future are particularly significant.