Suchergebnisse

Der Artikel diskutiert und quantifiziert die Haupteinflußgrößen der sinkenden Inflationsraten mit Hilfe des OECD-INTERLINK-Modells. Als wesentlichster Grund für den Rückgang der Inflationsrate wird die restriktive Geldpolitik und der Rückgang der Ölpreise angesehen. (IAB)

This paper contains a benefit‐cost analysis of disinflation. The analysis measures the costs of disinflation by "sacrifice ratios"—the output lost during a disinflation‐induced recession. The benefits of disinflation are from recent research that associates lower inflation with higher GDP growth rates. The analysis calculates sacrifice ratios and the growth effects of disinflation and critiques the methods that economists typically use to calculate these benefits and costs. The estimates are quite fragile but nevertheless show that the lost output from a disinflation‐induced recession typically will be recouped in 10 to 15 years.

This morning’s post previewed PREFU at a high level, pointing out that both main parties had been in practice endorsing expansionary fiscal policy, and that the likely operating balance surplus that would be shown in the PREFU would really reflect nothing more solid than aspiration, even after the numbers had been gamed. Neither party seemed … Continue reading Pretend fiscal policy and immaculate disinflation

Cover -- Table of Contents -- ABSTRACT -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. A STATIC OPEN ECONOMY MACROECONOMIC MODEL -- A. Net Exports and Inflation-Reduced Form Equations -- III. ECONOMIC STABILIZATION: ELIMINATING EXTERNAL AND INTERNAL IMBALANCES -- A. Graphical Treatment in the Spirit of Mundell (1962) -- B. The Perils of Fiscal Intransigence -- C. Some Illustrative Examples (EML holds) -- D. Coordination versus Fiscal Intransigence if the EML Fails -- IV. DISINFLATION, THE EXTERNAL POSITION, AND CREDIBILITY: A DYNAMIC ANALYSIS -- A. The Toxic Mix Again: High Inflation, External Deficits, and Low Credibility -- V. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS -- VI. REFERENCES -- VII. APPENDIX -- A. Translating Percent of Potential Output into Currency Units -- B. Model Parameters -- FIGURES -- 1: The Expanded Marshall-Lerner (EML) Condition -- 2: Required Adjustments to Attain Internal Balance (?*=?) -- 3: Required Adjustments to Attain External Balance (nx*=nx) -- 4: Required Adjustments for Joint Stabilization - EML holds -- 5: Required Adjustments for Joint Stabilization - EML fails -- 6: External Debt (Percent of GDP) -- 7: Real Interest Rate (Domestic, in Percent) -- 8: Fiscal Adjustment (% of GDP -- 9: Real Exchange Rate (Appreciation +) -- 10: Risk Premium (in Percent) -- 11: Output Gap (in percent) -- TABLES -- 1: External Vulnerability and Inflation: Selected Emerging Market Countries -- 2: Adjustments Required for External and Internal Stabilization.

Stats reported yesterday: Source: TradingEconomics. Note: Scales differ. Bloomberg discusses pork prices on the eve of the Lunar New Year.