Suchergebnisse

Obama's foreign policies and rhetoric are a major departure from that which has prevailed in the United States for generations. Republicans have a different idea. (Survival / SWP)

Senior Project submitted to The Division of Languages and Literature and the Division of Social Sciences of Bard College.

Throughout the XXth century arms have not only been tradable goods, but also foreign policy instruments. This paper focuses on countries supplying major conventional weapons (MCW), and investigates whether changes in political conditions impact the quantity of MCW supplied to third countries. In particular, I concentrate on democratic exporters and estimate a gravity-type panel TOBIT for the years 1975-2004. Results suggest that the exporter's chief executive being right-wing has a positive and significant impact on MCW exports. This may reect a general right-wing tendency to support national industry and deregulate heavy industry exports. I also find that higher political competition is associated with higher MCW exports, and that executives serving the last year of their current term tend to increase MCW exports if they cannot be re-elected, and to decrease MCW exports if they run for re-election. ; La politique peut influencer les ventes d'armes de plusieurs façons et l'histoire indique qu'elle le fait réellement : tout au long du XXème siècle les armes ont non seulement été des marchandises commercialisables mais également des instruments de politique extérieure. Ce document se concentre sur des pays fournissant des armes conventionnelles majeures (ACM) et étudie si l'orientation politique du gouvernement en place a une importance sur la politique d'exportation d'armes. En particulier, je me concentre sur les pays démocratiques exportateurs pour vérifier comment l'orientation politique, de droite ou de gauche, a un impact sur la quantité d'armes fournis aux pays tiers. A cette fin, une équation de commerce bilatéral est estimée pour les années 1975-2004, en appliquant un modèle TOBIT en panel. Les résultats suggèrent que l'éxecutif d'un pays exportateur de droite a un impact positif et significatif sur les exportations d'ACM. Ceci peut refléter une tendance générale de droite d'abaisser les barrières douanières, avec des conséquences sur la derégulation des exportations de l'industrie lourde ou un appui ...

Die Politbarometer werden seit 1977 etwa monatlich von der Forschungsgruppe Wahlen für das Zweite Deutsche Fernsehen (ZDF) durchgeführt. Seit 1990 steht diese Datenbasis auch für die neuen Bundesländer zur Verfügung. Im Zentrum der Untersuchung stehen die Meinungen und Einstellungen der wahlberechtigten Bevölkerung in der Bundesrepublik zu aktuellen politischen Themen, Parteien und Politikern sowie dem Wahlverhalten. 1990 bis 1995 und ab 1999 wurden die Politbarometer-Umfragen in den neuen und alten Bundesländern getrennt durchgeführt (Politbarometer Ost bzw. Politbarometer West). Die monatlichen Einzelumfragen eines Jahres werden in einen kumulierten Datensatz integriert, der alle Erhebungen eines Jahres und alle Variablen des jeweiligen Jahrganges umfasst. Ab 2003 sind die Politbarometer-Kurzbefragungen, die unterschiedlich häufig im Jahr erhoben werden, in die Jahreskumulation integriert.

Spatial poverty comparisons are investigated in three African countries using multidimensional indicators of well-being. The work is analogous to the univariate stochastic dominance literature in that it seeks poverty orderings that are robust to the choice of multidimensional poverty lines and indices. In addition, the study seeks to ensure that the comparisons are robust to aggregation procedures for multiple welfare variables. In contrast to earlier work, the methodology applies equally well to what can be defined as union, intersection, and intermediate approaches to dealing with multidimensional indicators of well-being. Furthermore, unlike much of the stochastic dominance literature, this work computes the sampling distributions of the poverty estimators to perform statistical tests of the difference in poverty measures. The methods are applied to two measures of well-being, the log of household expenditures per capita and children's height-forage z scores, using data from the 1988 Ghana Living Standards Study survey, the 1993 National Household Survey in Madagascar, and the 1999 National Household Survey in Uganda. Bivariate poverty comparisons are at odds with univariate comparisons in several interesting ways. Most important, it cannot always be concluded that poverty is lower in urban areas in one region compared with that in rural areas in another, even though univariate comparisons based on household expenditures per capita almost always lead to that conclusion.