Planning Foreign Policy Systematically: Mathematical Foreign Policy Planning

In: The journal of conflict resolution: journal of the Peace Science Society (International), Band 23, Heft 1, S. 139-173

Abstract

An approach to planning foreign policy systematically is presented. It is seen as an appropriate planning aid in situations where some form of goals can be stated, the subject matter is "well understood," and potential disturbances in the patterns of interrelationship between variables are identifiable. After placing this approach in the context of other planning and decision-making arguments and schemes, an example dealing with choosing a foreign assistance policy is offered to illustrate steps involved in mathematical planning. Those steps are goal setting and weighting, establishing normatively set constraints, relating variables, determining initial conditions, and numerical evaluation of alternative policies. In the foreign assistance example, computer simulation is employed to accomplish the final step.