Suchergebnisse

The recent decline in gross domestic product (GDP) growth in India raised a debate about whether it is a trend or a business cycle slowdown. We observe a cyclical downturn post-global financial crisis due to external and domestic conditions. With global recovery strengthening and appropriate demand management policies, the business cycle downturn can be reversed. At the same time, the economy witnessed negative shocks to trend growth caused by policy uncertainty. In this paper, we argue that these shocks are temporary. A stable policy environment can give positive shocks to growth. Policy action eliminating frictions that hamper efficient allocation of resources in factor markets can be seen as a positive shock that will pull up trend growth of output. Given that the supply of factors, namely labor, human capital, infrastructure, and non-infrastructure capital appears robust and productivity growth potentially strong, timely reforms that eliminate structural bottlenecks will enable trend growth to pick up.

The paper studies the macroeconomic effects of government spending shocks in an economy characterized by positive trend growth. It shows that the lower is the trend growth rate the less inflationary are government spending shocks and vice versa. Moreover, on impact output is higher but exhibits less persistence the lower is trend growth, an effect that also characterizes consumption and the government spending multiplier, given that consumption and labor are somewhat complementary.

This study looks at trends in Indian farm wages, analyses their linkage with food prices, and identifies factors which drove their growth in real terms. We employ quantitative and qualitative analysis techniques for this purpose. A vector-error correction model (VECM) is used to determine the linkage between farm wage inflation and food inflation, and a pooled mean group (PMG) estimation method, used for dynamic heterogeneous panels, is used to identify the drivers of growth in real farm wages. In last 20 years (1998-99 to 2017-18), wages of India's farm labourers increased at an average annual rate of 9.3 per cent in nominal and 3.2 per cent in real terms. For an average agricultural labourer, the daily wage rates increased from less than INR 45 in 1998-99 to about INR 229 in 2017-18. In real terms (2004-05 prices), this increase was from INR 50 to about INR 90 per day. The empirical analysis of the monthly wage time series identified a structural break in January 2007. Specifically, the curve is near-flat before this break-point subsequent which it rises sharply. On the relation between food inflation and wage growth, evidence was found of a food-wage spiral where changes in food prices and farm wages were estimated to impact each other. However, the impact of food inflation emerged to be stronger on wages than vice-versa and this impact was observed to strengthen post 2007-08. The panel study (1987-88 to 2015-16) on the drivers of real wage growth was conducted around the January 2007 structural break. Before this break, growth in real wages was estimated to be mostly driven by growth in the agriculture sector. Any influence of non-agricultural sectors (manufacturing and construction) did not emerge significant during this period. However, post the break, the growth witnessed in both- non-agricultural (manufacturing and construction sectors) and agricultural sectors explained the sharp increases in real farm wages. The large public rural employment program, MGNREGA (introduced in 2005) was identified as a ...