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Working paper
Conditional Threshold Autoregression (CoTAR)
SSRN
On continuous-time threshold autoregression
In: International journal of forecasting, Band 8, Heft 2, S. 157-173
ISSN: 0169-2070
Bayesian analysis of threshold autoregressions
In: Communications in statistics. Theory and methods, Band 21, Heft 9, S. 2459-2482
ISSN: 1532-415X
Testing for sign and amplitude asymmetries using threshold autoregressions
In: Journal of economic dynamics & control, Band 30, Heft 4, S. 623-654
ISSN: 0165-1889
Agricultural Financing and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) Analyses
This study evaluates agricultural financing and economic growth in Nigeria using threshold autoregressive (TAR) model. Examining the efficacy of agricultural financing on economic growth in Nigeria is the objective of the study. This evaluation covered but short and long run analyses. Diagnostic tests are adopted using Augmented Dickey Fuller Unit Root Test, Co-integration, and Error Correction Model. Threshold Autoregressive model (TAR) was utilized to test agricultural finance sustainability in Nigeria from 1990-2017. Findings showed that Nigeria has not reach a healthy threshold as revealed in all the regimes of GDP, the study concludes that Nigeria's agricultural financing is not healthy enough to yield greater benefits for the battled economy. This is because it has not achieved healthy threshold of significant positive impact in agriculture. The paper recommends among others that, there is great need to improve significantly government budget allocation to agriculture. Policy makers are encouraged to develop better frameworks that enhance more funds appropriated to the agricultural sector and financial institutions are expected to assist government on this struggle. Special Funds should be channeled to farmers and its relations to help boost production in the sector. This will lead to achievement of food security and high foreign exchange earnings.
BASE
Regime-dependent effects of monetary policy shocks: Evidence from threshold vector autoregressions
This paper studies regime dependence in the effects of monetary policy shocks for the U.S. using a threshold vector autoregressive model. In a high inflation regime the standard results from the literature obtain. In a low inflation regime output shows no significant response to monetary policy while the inflation response is negative. The paper endogenously determines two distinct regimes, while the literature thus far only considers alternative subsamples.
BASE
Macroeconomic dynamics and inflation regimes in the US: Results from threshold vector autoregressions
This paper studies regime dependence in macroeconomic dynamics in the U.S. using a threshold vector autoregressive model in which endogenous regime switches are triggered by the inflation rate. The model separates a high from a low inflation regime with both regimes being strongly persistent. Generalized impulse response functions highlight important across-regime differences in the responses of the economy to monetary policy and inflation shocks. Simulating both regimes with individual structural equations interchanged shows a change in inflation dynamics to be the most important source of the transition of the U.S. economy from the high into the low inflation state while the change in the monetary policy reaction functions has only very little effect. Our results indicate that favorable changes in the economic structure and less frequent and smaller shocks are important explanations for the observed decline in U.S. macroeconomic volatility since the mid 1980s.
BASE
Agricultural Financing and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Threshold Autoregressive (Tar) Analyses
In: SOCIALSCI Journal Vol 7 (2020)
SSRN
Capital Mobility and Current Account Imbalance: Nonlinear Threshold Vector Autoregression Approach
In: International interactions: empirical and theoretical research in international relations, Band 38, Heft 2, S. 182-217
ISSN: 1547-7444
Capital mobility and current account imbalance: Nonlinear threshold vector autoregression approach
In: International interactions: empirical and theoretical research in international relations, Band 38, Heft 2, S. 182-217
ISSN: 0305-0629
SSRN
Investor Sentiment, Volatility and Cross-Market Illiquidity Dynamics: A Threshold Vector Autoregression Approach
In: JBEF-D-22-00344
SSRN
Investor Sentiment, Volatility and Cross-Market Illiquidity Dynamics: A Threshold Vector Autoregression Approach
In: FINANA-D-23-00380
SSRN
Using Threshold Autoregressions to Model Farmland Prices Under Transaction Costs and Variable Discount Rates
In: Government Policy and Farmland Markets, S. 265-282