Suchergebnisse

The notion "political risk" in foreign political analytics was introduced in the quality of country risk component with the aim to explain a row of failure reasons of this or that country, not connecting directly with financial and economic factors. In the last decade, research of political risks is especially actual. However, because of corresponding researches interdisciplinary character, there is no proper attention to political risk in academic political science, that is why "political risk" is frequently determined as "political instability". Political leaders on data aggregation exist with a goal to form indexes (as a rule, quantitative) of political risks. Particularly, "Marsh", who in its turn rests on research data of the company "BMI Research" – the leading expert in the sphere of political analysis and credit risks. Political risks interactive map was prepared in the result of team-work in 2016. According to this research, terrorism and political violence, armed conflicts, powerful political actions, oriented to destruction of existing political systems, and also permanently low prices on commodities are considered to be the most significant political risks. "Marsh" experts from all the governments of Black sea region especially emphasize Ukraine, Moldavia and Armenia as countries with the highest index of political risk – 43,10 (in the short-run), and 39,60 (in in the longer term), 51,30 (in the short-run) and 51,10 (in in the longer term), 54,40 (in the short-run) и 59,60 (in the longer term) accordingly. At that stably medium ("orange") indexes of political risks are preserved at all the other region governments. This shows that "Marsh" experts predict violence escalation in Nagorny Karabakh in connection with Azerbaidjan threats. Nevertheless, close connection of Armenia with Russia acts as constraining factor, particularly expressing in Russian military presence on the territory of Armenia that restricts Azerbaidjan actions. Also there are the following political risks, specific for Black sea region countries:  Georgia Euro-Atlantic intensions, situated at the height of their development,  natives of the North and South Caucasus republics join the rows of prohibited in Russia terroristic organization "ISIL",  macroeconomic stability of countries in the region is under the pressure – currencies of region's countries are significantly devaluated in the height of the fast currency transfers fall from abroad and stagnation in investment sector,  social and internal political problems (mass protests and constitutional reform in Armenia, activation of oppositional "United national movement" in Georgia under the conditions of complex economic situation and non-systemic Islamic opposition in Azerbaidjan),  unstable positions of the present government in Moldova, rent by competition for the power,  conflict in the South-East of Ukraine, which complicated relations with neighboring Russia for many years, under continuing poor perspectives of the country economy,  uncertainty around possible dialogues development trends with regional powers – Turkey and Iran. The work is accomplished within the frames of State task realization on 2016 No 007-01114-16 SR, project "Geopolitical transformations in Caspian-Black region: instruments on instability maintenance" according to the program of fundamental researches of RAS № I.13 presidium.

The author describes historical and contemporary geopolitical position of the Black Sea region. Up to the present times the primary significance of the region has lain in its trade routes and other transit communications that connect Europe, the Middle East and Asia. Having such geographic position the region has been an interest sphere of great powers and regional states and conquerors. Today most of states of the Black Sea region are economically poor, have unstable political systems and burdened with constant and potential explosive problems.

The Black Sea is a vital strategic crossroads between Europe, Central Asia and the Middle East. Comprising at least ten countries, with diverse religious, cultural, political and economic backgrounds, the region was shaped historically by centuries of conflict between the Ottoman and Russian empires, and in the 20th century by the rise and dramatic collapse of the Soviet Union and the subsequent post-Cold War emergence of newly independent states. The region faces emerging security challenges of major international strategic interest, not least because 80% of all Russian gas destined for Europe transits through the Black Sea states. The nexus for unresolved territorial conflicts which have led to the establishment of intractable guerrilla regimes, the region is also a hotbed of illicit trafficking in counterfeit goods, drugs, weapons and radioactive material from discarded former Soviet facilities. This book expands on the proceedings and subsequent contributions resulting from a NATO workshop held at Oxford University. The workshop on Black Sea security cooperation brought together key government and private sector stakeholders in the region. The first part of the book covers the security challenges to the Black Sea region. The second part looks at the prospects for shaping a new security architecture in the region, highlighting various regional law enforcement and counter-trafficking cooperation initiatives and proposing a range of technical security cooperation solutions to the ongoing challenges. The final part of the book offers perspectives on the South Ossetia conflict.

The spread of novel coronavirus COVID-19 has resulted in global pandemics, which was followed by an abrupt economic crisis, as economies stood still in order to overcome the threat to people's lives. In this bulletin, we overview the readiness to the healthcare and economic crisis, the evolution of the pandemic and characteristics of the lockdown for the six countries in the Black Sea Region.

The Black Sea is a vital strategic crossroads between Europe, Central Asia and the Middle East. Comprising at least ten countries, with diverse religious, cultural, political and economic backgrounds, the region was shaped historically by centuries of conflict between the Ottoman and Russian empires, and in the 20th century by the rise and dramatic collapse of the Soviet Union and the subsequent post-Cold War emergence of newly independent states. The region faces emerging security challenges of major international strategic interest, not least because 80% of all Russian gas destined for Europ.

This book primarily deals with the role of the regional and extra-regional actors in security issues in the Black Sea region. It assesses the security context of the region in the post-Cold War period and suggests some possible future developments.This book was published as a special issue of Southeast European and Black Sea Studies.

Is the Black Sea a region? / Charles King -- Cooperative efforts in the Black Sea region / Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze -- Littoral states and region-building around the Black Sea / Arkady Moshes -- The unresolved conflicts in the Black Sea region : threats, impacts on regionalism, and regional strategies for conflict resolution / Roy Allison -- Energy and pipeline security in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea regions : challenges and solutions / A. Necdet Pamir -- National democratic security structures in the making : achievements and obstacles in the Black Sea region / Andrzej Karkoszka -- Military and naval balance in the Black Sea / Hryhoriy Perepelytsya -- New security threats in the Black Sea region / Leonid Polyakov -- Democracy in the Black Sea region : the missing link in regional security / James Sherr -- The new security environment in the Black Sea region : a role for international institutions / Sergiu Celac

The policy of Bulgaria in the Black Sea region plays an important role for the future development of the country, as well as for the development of the region as a whole. The inability to develop a national strategy aggravates a number of problems in terms of the strategic use of the resources of the Black Sea, leads to enormous losses for the country. At the present time, Bulgaria is implementing a number of policies in the Black Sea region — such as energy, trade, traffic and security, protection of the surrounding environment, regional cooperation, etc. To effectively overcome the many problems in the Black Sea region, it is necessary first of all to take collective actions that will help overcome two obstacles: the EU's interests in the Black Sea region and Bulgaria's ability to defend its national interests, not adhering to the EU's common policy.At the moment, the European Union is intensifying its efforts to create an effective policy in order to enter the Black Sea region and become one of the main players. We should not forget the interests of other Great Powers like Russia and The United States.

The article analyzes the achievements, prospects and issues of Ukrainian cultural diplomacy in the Black Sea region. It outlines different levels of cultural cooperation in the region, in which the goals of Ukraine's cultural diplomacy can be realized: cooperation within UNESCO, cooperation within the Eastern European Partnership, cooperation within the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC), cooperation within bilateral cultural contacts. It is emphasized that all formats of cultural interaction complement each other and can have a synergistic effect. It is noted that Ukraine is one of the few countries that has participated in the ICDS testing, and together with Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan can set a precedent for the regional application of this methodology by UNESCO. Ukrainian cultural diplomacy in the Black Sea region is also considered in connection with the state's European integration obligations under the "Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU". Summarizing the level of activity in the field of cultural diplomacy in the region, it is noted that Ukraine is not fully aware of the importance of cultural diplomacy tools for resolving the conflict situation related to the occupation of the Crimean Peninsula by the Russian Federation. Examining the content of the "Strategy of Public Policy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine 2021-2025", a recommendation was made to supplement the list of target regions for cultural diplomacy of Ukraine with the Black Sea region as an integral socio-cultural object.

Cover -- Half Title -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Table of Contents -- Preface -- List of Abbreviation and Acronyms -- List of Contributors -- Introduction -- 1. Is the Black Sea a Region? -- 2. Cooperative Efforts in the Black Sea Region -- 3. Littoral States and Region Building Around the Black Sea -- 4. The Unresolved Conflicts in the Black Sea Region: Threats, Impacts on Regionalism, and Regional Strategies for Conflict Resolution -- 5. Energy and Pipeline Security in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea Regions: Challenges and Solutions