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In this article, we examine the impact of terrorist attacks on asylum-related migration flows. So far, the literature that examines the "push factors" such as terrorism that explain forced migration has omitted the fact that the vast majority of people forced to flee typically do so toward other locations within the country. The novel feature of our research is the estimation of a structural gravity equation that includes both international migration and internally displaced persons (IDP), a theoretically consistent framework that allows us to identify country-specific variables such as terror attacks. For that purpose, we use information on the number of asylum applications, the number of IDP, and the number of terrorist attacks in each country for a sample of 119 origin developing countries and 141 destination countries over 2009–2018. The empirical results reveal several interesting and policy-relevant traits. Firstly, forced migration abroad is still minimal compared to IDP, but globalization forces are pushing up the ratio. Secondly, terror violence has a positive and significant effect on asylum migration flows relative to the number of IDP. Thirdly, omitting internally displaced people biases downward the impact of terrorism on asylum applications. Fourthly, we observe regional heterogeneity in the effect of terrorism on asylum migration flows; in Latin America, terrorist attacks have a much larger impact on the number of asylum applications relative to IDP than in Asia or Africa.

This Advanced Guide to Trade Policy Analysis is a complementary follow-up to the original Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis. It provides the most recent tools for analysis of trade policy using structural gravity models. Written by experts who have contributed to the development of theoretical and empirical methods in the academic gravity literature and who have rich practical experience in the field, this publication explains how to conduct partial equilibrium estimations as well as general equilibrium analysis with structural gravity models and contains practical guidance on how to apply these tools to concrete policy questions. This Advanced Guide has been developed to contribute to the enhancement of developing countries' capacity to analyse and implement trade policy. It is aimed at government experts engaged in trade negotiations, as well as graduate students and researchers involved in trade-related study or research

AbstractWe propose a simple method to identify the effects of unilateral and non‐discriminatory trade policies on bilateral trade within a theoretically consistent empirical gravity model. Specifically, we argue that structural gravity estimations should be performed with data that include not only international trade flows but also intra‐national trade flows. The use of intra‐national sales allows identification of the effects of non‐discriminatory trade policies such as most favoured nation tariffs, even in the presence of exporter and importer fixed effects. A byproduct of our approach is that it can be used to recover estimates of the trade elasticity, a key parameter for quantitative trade models. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our techniques in the case of most favoured nation tariffs and "time to export" as representative non‐discriminatory determinants of trade on the importer and on the exporter side, respectively. Our methods can be extended to quantify the impact on trade of any country‐specific characteristics as well as any non‐trade policies.

Abstract only in English and French ; We propose a simple method to identify the effects of unilateral and non‐discriminatory trade policies on bilateral trade within a theoretically consistent empirical gravity model. Specifically, we argue that structural gravity estimations should be performed with data that include not only international trade flows but also intra‐national trade flows. The use of intra‐national sales allows identification of the effects of non‐discriminatory trade policies such as most favoured nation tariffs, even in the presence of exporter and importer fixed effects. A byproduct of our approach is that it can be used to recover estimates of the trade elasticity, a key parameter for quantitative trade models. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our techniques in the case of most favoured nation tariffs and "time to export" as representative non‐discriminatory determinants of trade on the importer and on the exporter side, respectively. Our methods can be extended to quantify the impact on trade of any country‐specific characteristics as well as any non‐trade policies. = Évaluation de l'incidence des politiques commerciales non discriminatoires au sein de modèles de gravité structurels. Dans un modèle de gravité empirique théoriquement cohérent, nous proposons une méthode simple pour identifier les effets des politiques commerciales unilatérales et non discriminatoires sur le commerce bilatéral. Plus précisément, nous affirmons que les estimations basées sur des modèles de gravité structurels doivent être réalisées en tenant compte non seulement des données relatives aux flux commerciaux internationaux, mais aussi nationaux. L'utilisation de données relatives aux ventes domestiques permet d'identifier les effets des politiques commerciales non discriminatoires, par exemple les tarifs douaniers de la nation la plus favorisée (NPF), même en présence d'effets fixes importateur et exportateur. Notre approche peut être utilisée pour redresser les estimations relatives à l'élasticité des échanges, un paramètre clé des modèles commerciaux quantitatifs. Nous démontrons l'efficacité de nos techniques dans le cadre des tarifs douaniers NPF et des délais d'exportation, facteurs déterminants, représentatifs et non discriminatoires sur le commerce, à la fois pour l'importateur et l'exportateur. Il possible d'étendre nos méthodes pour quantifier les effets de n'importe quelle caractéristique spécifique à un pays sur le commerce, ainsi que de n'importe quelle politique non commerciale. ; Benedikt Heid, Mario Larch, Yoto V. Yotov

This paper proposes a new panel data structural gravity approach for estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit. The suggested Constrained Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimator exhibits some useful properties for trade policy analysis and allows to obtain estimates and confidence intervals which are consistent with structural trade theory. Assuming different counterfactual post-Brexit scenarios, our main findings suggest that UKs (EUs) exports of goods to the EU (UK) are likely to decline within a range between 7.2% and 45.7% (5.9% and 38.2%) six years after the Brexit has taken place. For the UK, the negative trade effects are only partially offset by an increase in domestic goods trade and trade with third countries, inducing a decline in UKs real income between 1.4% and 5.7% under the hard Brexit scenario. The estimated welfare effects for the EU are negligible in magnitude and statistically not different from zero.

This paper proposes a new panel data structural gravity approach for estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit. The suggested Constrained Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimator exhibits some useful properties for trade policy analysis and allows to obtain estimates and confidence intervals which are consistent with structural trade theory. Assuming different counterfactual post-Brexit scenarios, our main findings suggest that UKs (EUs) exports of goods to the EU (UK) are likely to decline within a range between 7.2% and 45.7% (5.9% and 38.2%) six years after the Brexit has taken place. For the UK, the negative trade effects are only partially offset by an increase in domestic goods trade and trade with third countries, inducing a decline in UKs real income between 1.4% and 5.7% under the hard Brexit scenario. The estimated welfare effects for the EU are negligible in magnitude and statistically not different from zero.

This paper proposes a new panel data structural gravity approach for estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit. The suggested Constrained Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimator exhibits some useful properties for trade policy analysis and allows to obtain estimates and confidence intervals which are consistent with structural trade theory. Assuming different counterfactual post-Brexit scenarios, our main findings suggest that UK's exports of goods to the EU are likely to decline within a range between 7.2 percent and 45.7 percent (EU's exports to UK by 5.9 percent to 38.2 percent) six years after the Brexit has taken place. For the UK, the negative trade effects are only partially offset by an increase in domestic goods trade and trade with third countries, inducing a decline in UK's real income between 1.4 percent and 5.7 percent under the hard Brexit scenario. The estimated welfare effects for the EU are negligible in magnitude and statistically not different from zero.

AbstractThis paper proposes a new panel data structural gravity approach for estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit. Assuming different counterfactual post‐Brexit scenarios, our main findings suggest that the UK's exports of goods to the EU are likely to decline within a range between 7.2% and 45.7% six years after Brexit has taken place. For the UK, the negative trade effects are only partially offset by an increase in domestic trade and trade with third countries, inducing a decline in the UK's real income of between 0.3% and 5.7%. The estimated welfare effects for the EU are not different from zero, but some members like Ireland are expected to also experience welfare losses.

The study investigates the economic, geographical, institutional, and
political determinants of T?rkiye?s bilateral manufacturing exports for
2003-2018, applying the structural gravity model and considering 30 main
export partners of T?rkiye. The Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood method
results reveal that T?rkiye?s manufacturing exports are mostly directed by
its own and partners? economic sizes. While common borders and cultural
similarity positively impact manufacturing exports, distance and landlocked
position affect it negatively. The degrees of institutional quality, trade
freedom in T?rkiye, and membership of the partner countries in the World
Trade Organization are resistance factors against manufacturing exports,
whereas trade agreements encourage it. As the bilateral or multilateral
trade agreements turned out to be the driving forces of manufacturing
exports, T?rkiye should sign additional trade agreements and/or amplify
trade agreements that have already been signed rather than standard trade
policy implementations.