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This paper reviews the prospects for the exchange rate system in different parts of the world. It discounts radical changes like a single world currency and a trio of regional monetary unions: in Europe, where intergration is political as well as economic and financial, the euro should provide the basis for an expanding zone of monetary stability; in the Americas, in contrast, dollarization is likely to be the solution for countries with strong financial links to the USA that find it difficult to run an autonomous monetary policy; and in Asia, continued floating is the only plausible outcome, given the obstacles to the alternatives.(J.E.L.: F3)

Cover -- Half-title -- Series Information -- Title page -- Copyright information -- Table of contents -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- List of Boxes -- List of Contributors -- Preface -- Introduction: Risk conundrums in a fast and complex world -- Risk analysis: a brief history -- Risks as wicked problems -- Some fundamental questions for analysis in the age of risk conundrums -- The contributions to this book -- References -- 1 How can we be sure that we are working on the right risks? -- Technical experts versus publics -- Values: What do we know about them? How do they enter in? -- Values and culture: What are the links? -- Going wrong I -- Going wrong II -- Going wrong III -- Working on the right risks: How to move forward -- References -- 2 Whose views really matter in the end? -- The implications of psychometric studies -- Scale and time really matter -- Some silliness: knowledge deficits and NIMBYs -- Process can make a difference -- Conclusions -- References -- 3 How do we move forward when there is no trust? -- Introduction -- The nature of social trust -- The conundrums of social trust -- How do we move forward in a context of social distrust? -- Conclusion -- Acknowledgments and disclaimer -- References -- 4 How can we best deal with the unexpected? -- Introduction: surprises, uncertainty, and conundrums -- Some practical experience: four cases -- Concluding observations: moving toward greater societal resilience -- References -- 5 How can we learn more from learning about risk controversies? -- Introduction -- Learning in risk governance, risk communication, and public participation -- The conundrum of learning -- A socio-cultural approach to learning -- A way through the conundrum -- Conclusions -- Acknowledgments -- References

A risk conundrum can be viewed as a risk that poses major issues in assessment, and whose management is not easily engaged. Such perplexing problems can either paralyze or badly delay risk analysis and directions for progression. Rather than simply focusing on the progress in risk analysis that has already been made, it is crucial to consider what has been learnt about these seemingly unmanageable problems and how best to move forward. Risk Conundrums seeks to answer this question by bringing together a range of key thinkers in the field to explore key issues such as risk communication, uncertainty, social trust, indicators and metrics, and risk management, drawing upon case study examples including natural disasters, terrorism, and energy transitions. The initial chapters address risk conundrums, their properties, and the challenges they pose. The book then turns to a greater emphasis on systemic and regional risk conundrums. Finally, it considers how risk management can be changed to address these unsolvable conundrums. Alternative pathways are defined and scrutinized and predictions for future developments set out. This book will be of great interest to students and scholars of risk governance, environmental policy, and sustainable development.

The advent of a retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) could reshape the US payments system. A retail CBDC would be a digital representation of the US dollar in the form of an account or token that is widely accessible to the general public. It would be a third form of US fiat money that is created and issued by the Federal Reserve and complementary to physical cash. CBDC proposals have suggested a myriad of retail CBDC design models with an overwhelming interest in a retail CBDC that either implements a centralized ledger system or some form of a distributed ledger system to process payments. The technology of a retail CBDC would enable instantaneous payments for consumers and greater transparency for government officials. Additionally, CBDC proponents are championing retail CBDC as a tool to promote financial inclusion. However, antiquated US privacy protections may be inadequate to safeguard against the potential risks to individual privacy within digital payments and consequently undermine financial inclusion. A retail CBDC system that is under the control of the Federal Reserve could bolster regulatory compliance and oversight but also exacerbate workarounds by government entities in the current US privacy framework that are concerning for individual privacy in the age of big data and dataveillance. A proper privacy framework governing retail CBDC records would alleviate risks to privacy and enhance public trust in a retail CBDC system. Refining the Privacy Act of 1974 or creating a new regulatory framework that is informed by both the Privacy Act and the impact of innovative data analytics would help balance the inherent tension between privacy and transparency of user identity and transactions within a retail CBDC system under the control of the Federal Reserve.

Ankomah, Baffour: Solving the great conundrum

On 17th May 2006 the European Parliament voted for the agreement on the Financial Framework 2007-2013. The EU has decided that in that period a total of Euro 49.463 million will be spent on its external policy, which constitutes an average increase of 29%. This development is in line with public opinion, as according to the Eurobarometer the support amongst Europeans for an EU Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) is remarkably high. However, the new budget presents the EU and the Member States with several challenges: firstly, a lack of transparency in the allocation of funds; secondly, too little possibility for democratic control by the European Parliament; and finally, a still insufficient amount of funding. One way to diminish these deficits would be the introduction of a CFSP Fund in 2009, out of which all EU missions would be financed. If it were established, this Fund ought to be subject to scrutiny by the European Parliament, as well as being equipped with adequate financial means. (SWP Comments / SWP)