Suchergebnisse

Following very strong growth during the period 2000-12, emerging market economies (EMEs) experienced a slowdown in the last couple of years. This paper examines the supply-side drivers of the strong growth performance of 63 EMEs and investigates if the recent slowdown in growth is transitory or a more permanent phenomenon. We find that on average the recent slowdown is explained equally by structural and cyclical factors, although there are large variations across countries and regions. While the cyclical component of the slowdown can be corrected by countercyclical policies (provided that the

NFP +142 vs. consensus +166. Employment has almost surely slowed (keeping in mind this is the preliminary release). What does this look like? Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment from CES (blue), Bloomberg consensus assuming no revisions to previous months (light blue), NFP early benchmark (tan), QCEW total covered employment seasonally adjusted by author using […]

Torsten Slok (Apollo) asks that question today. He summarizes: Current status as of Saturday July 20: – Daily data shows restaurant bookings remain strong – Daily data shows TSA air travel remains strong – The Fed's weekly GDP estimate is 2.2% – Atlanta Fed GDPNow is 2.7% and rising – Weekly same-store retail sales are […]

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 1980'S, EAST EUROPEAN ECONOMIES ARE AT A CROSSROADS. THE PRESSURES THAT BLEW THE LID OFF POLAND WILL INCREASINGLY BUILD BENEATH THE POLITICAL LEADERS AND CENTRAL PLANNERS OF OTHER EAST EUROPEAN COUNTRIES, FORCING THEM TO TAKE HARD DECISIONS REGARDING THEIR ECONOMIC SYSTEMS. UNDERSTANDING THE CAUSES OF THE PRESENT ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN ALLOWS SPECULATION ABOUT WHAT RESPONSES THE EAST EUROPEAN LEADERSHIP MAY MAKE.

The increase of 13·5 per cent in 1978 masks a remarkable slowdown in the rate of industrial growth in China. The data in Table 1 suggest that the gross value of industrial output (GVIO) has been growing at an annual rate of less than 5 per cent since the end of 1977 – which is less than half the average annual rate projected for the 10–Year Plan period (1976–85).

This paper documents the recent slowdown in investment in India and explores its underlying causes. The sharp investment deceleration has sparked an intense debate about the role of interest rates, as well as business confidence and economic policy uncertainty. Our results suggest that while explaining aggregate investment activity better than nominal interest rates, real interest rates account for only one quarter of the explained investment downturn. In addition, standard macro-financial variables do not fully explain the recent investment slump. Using a new measure of economic policy uncert

This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but