Suchergebnisse

Urban stormwater models can be semi-distributed (SD) or fully distributed (FD). SD models are based on subcatchment units with various land use types, where rainfall is applied and runoff volumes are estimated and routed. FD models are based on the two dimensional (2D) discretization of the overland surface, which has a finer resolution with each grid-cell representing one land use type, where runoff volumes are estimated and directly routed by the 2D overland flow module. While SD models have been commonly applied in urban stormwater modeling, FD models are generally more detailed and theoretically more realistic. This paper presents a comparison between SD and FD models using two case studies in Coimbra (Portugal) and London (UK). To enable direct comparison between SD and FD setups, a model-building process is proposed and a novel sewer inlet representation is applied. SD and FD modeling results are compared against observed records in sewers and photographic records of flood events. The results suggest that FD models are more sensitive to surface storage parameters and require higher detail of the sewer network representation. ; This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No. 641931. Rui Pina acknowledges the financial support fromthe Fundação para aCiência e Tecnologia-Ministério para a Ciência, Tecnologia e Ensino Superior, Portugal (SFRH/BD/88532/2012). Susana Ochoa-Rodriguez acknowledges the support of the Interreg IVB NWE RainGain project.

Multi-step ahead inflow forecasting has a critical role to play in reservoir operation and management in Taiwan during typhoons as statutory legislation requires a minimum of 3-hours warning to be issued before any reservoir releases are made. However, the complex spatial and temporal heterogeneity of typhoon rainfall, coupled with a remote and mountainous physiographic context makes the development of real-time rainfall-runoff models that can accurately predict reservoir inflow several hours ahead of time challenging. Consequently, there is an urgent, operational requirement for models that can enhance reservoir inflow prediction at forecast horizons of more than 3-hours. In this paper we develop a novel semi-distributed, data-driven, rainfall-runoff model for the Shihmen catchment, north Taiwan. A suite of Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System solutions is created using various combinations of auto-regressive, spatially-lumped radar and point-based rain gauge predictors. Different levels of spatially-aggregated radar-derived rainfall data are used to generate 4, 8 and 12 sub-catchment input drivers. In general, the semi-distributed radar rainfall models outperform their less complex counterparts in predictions of reservoir inflow at lead-times greater than 3-hours. Performance is found to be optimal when spatial aggregation is restricted to 4 sub-catchments, with up to 30% improvements in the performance over lumped and point-based models being evident at 5-hour lead times. The potential benefits of applying semi-distributed, data-driven models in reservoir inflow modelling specifically, and hydrological modelling more generally, is thus demonstrated.

AbstractWe develop an approximate planning model for a distributed computing network in which a control system oversees the assignment of information flows and tasks to a pool of shared computers, and describe several optimization applications using the model. We assume that the computers are multithreaded, and have differing architectures leading to varying and inconsistent processing rates. The model is based on a discrete‐time, continuous flow model developed by Graves [Oper Res 34 (1986), 522–533] which provides the steady‐state moments of production and work‐in‐queue quantities. We make several extensions to Graves' model to represent distributed computing networks. First, we approximately model control rules that are nonlinear functions of the work‐in‐queue at multiple stations through a linearization approach. Second, we introduce an additional noise term on production and show its use in modeling the discretization of jobs. Third, we model groups of heterogeneous computers as aggregate, "virtual computing cells" that process multiple tasks simultaneously, using a judiciously selected control rule. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.

Credit risk is one of the most important contemporary problems for banks and insurance companies. Indeed, for banks, more than forty percent of the equities are necessary to cover this risk. Though this problem is studied by large rating agencies with substantial economic, social and financial tools, building stochastic models is nevertheless necessary to complete this descriptive orientation. This book presents a complete presentation of such a category of models using homogeneous and non-homogeneous semi-Markov processes developed by the authors in several recent papers.