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This paper proposes a polynomial-time algorithm to construct the monotone stepwise curve that minimizes the sum of squared errors with respect to a given cloud of data points. The fitted curve is also constrained on the maximum number of steps it can be composed of and on the minimum step length. Our algorithm relies on dynamic programming and is built on the basis that said curve-fitting task can be tackled as a shortest-path type of problem. Numerical results on synthetic and realistic data sets reveal that our algorithm is able to provide the globally optimal monotone stepwise curve fit for samples with thousands of data points in less than a few hours. Furthermore, the algorithm gives a certificate on the optimality gap of any incumbent solution it generates. From a practical standpoint, this piece of research is motivated by the roll-out of smart grids and the increasing role played by the small flexible consumption of electricity in the large-scale integration of renewable energy sources into current power systems. Within this context, our algorithm constitutes an useful tool to generate bidding curves for a pool of small flexible consumers to partake in wholesale electricity markets. ; This research has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement no. 755705). This work was also supported in part by the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness and the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) through project ENE2017-83775-P. Martine Labbé has been partially supported by the Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique - FNRS under Grant(s) no PDR T0098.18.

AbstractMulticollinearity and nonnormal errors are problems often encountered in the application of linear regression. Estimators are proposed for dealing with the simultaneous occurrence of both multicollinearity and nonnormality. These estimators are developed by combining biased estimation techniques with certain robust criteria. An iteratively reweighted least‐squares procedure is used to compute the estimates. The performance of the combined estimators is studied empirically through Monte Carlo experiments structured according to factorial designs. With respect to a mean‐squared‐error criterion, the combined estimators are superior to ordinary least‐squares, pure biased estimators, and pure robust estimators when multicollinearity and nonnormality are present. The loss in efficiency for the combined estimators relative to least squares is small when these problems do not occur. Some guidelines for the use of these combined estimators are given.