Suchergebnisse

Abstract
What is the best way to communicate the risk of rare but extreme weather to the public? One suggestion is to communicate the relative risk of extreme weather in the form of odds ratios; but, to the authors' knowledge, this suggestion has never been tested systematically. The experiment reported here provides an empirical test of this hypothesis. Participants performed a realistic computer simulation task in which they assumed the role of the manager of a road maintenance company and used forecast information to decide whether to take precautionary action to prevent icy conditions on a town's roads. Participants with forecasts expressed as odds ratios were more likely to take appropriate precautionary action on a single target trial with an extreme low temperature forecast than participants using deterministic or probabilistic forecasts. However, participants using probabilistic forecasts performed better on trials involving weather within the normal range than participants with only deterministic forecast information. These results may provide insight into how best to communicate extreme weather risk. This paper offers clear evidence that people given relative risk information are more inclined to take precautionary action when threatened with an extreme weather event with a low probability than people given only single-value or probabilistic forecasts.

Foreword; 1. Introduction: Tackling the Odds in the Sub-Continental Fringes: Disaster Resilience in the Smaller Countries of South Asia; 2. An Old Hand: Comprehensive Disaster Risk Reduction Institutional Framework in Bangladesh; 3. Icy Flood: Adapting to the impacts of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in Bhutan; 4. Staying Afloat: Disaster recovery in the climate change-threatened atolls of the Maldives; 5. Rule of Thumb: Opportunities and barriers to compliance of building codes for disaster resilience in Nepal; 6. Framing Accountability: Policy implementation following floods and landslides in Sri Lanka; 7. Conclusion: Key considerations for disaster resilience in the smaller countries of South Asia; Index

Cover -- Half Title -- Title -- Copyright -- Dedication -- Contents -- List of Illustrations -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- 1 Confronting the Inevitable -- The Meeting -- The Outcome -- 2 Locating Bremer: Influences of Space and Time -- The Beginning -- Bremer Today: Deceptively Serene -- The Town Proper -- 3 Gaining Perspective: A Framework for Analysis -- A Framework for Understanding Community Change -- Community-Control Era -- The Mass Society -- Information Era -- 4 Agriculture: Reconciliation of Making a Living, Government, and a Way of Life -- How Farming Used to Be -- How Farming Is Today -- The Act of Farming -- Community Control of Bremer's Agriculture -- The Risk of Rape and Green Manure -- Keeping the Land in the Family: Lawyers and In-Laws Don't Mix -- Are You with Us or Against Us? Working with Government Agencies -- Computer Farming: National Networks and Playing the Futures -- Conclusion: Living in Three Eras -- 5 Bremer's Other Businesses: Each in Its Proper Place -- Main Street -- The Bremer Bank: Standing in Line for a Publicly Approved Loan -- The Hartford Grocery Store: Food but No Toothpaste -- The Drugstore: Orders by Computer, Delivery by Person -- The Bremer Hardware Store: Teapots and Tractors -- The Insurance Agency: Bring Your Own Cup -- Center Fertilizer and Farm Supplier: The Cost of Five-Cent Peanuts and a Misplaced Coffee Pot -- The Kholer Tractor Company: Outsiders with Names on Their Shirts -- Bremer Telephone and Cable Television Company: A Co-οp with Digital Switching and Optic Fiber Cables -- Cafe by Day and Tavern by Night: Bremer Caps and Other Local Rules -- The Requirements of Doing Business in Bremer: Complexity Hidden by Simplicity -- Conclusion -- 6 More Important than Government: The Community Club -- City Council: Keeping Everyone Happy and Moving in the "Right Direction

Given the widespread use of empirical actuarial risk tools in corrections and forensic mental health, it is important that evaluators and decision makers understand how scores relate to recidivism risk. In the current study, we found strong evidence for a relative risk interpretation of Static-99R scores using 8 samples from Canada, United Kingdom, and Western Europe ( N = 4,037 sex offenders). Each increase in Static-99R score was associated with a stable and consistent increase in relative risk (as measured by an odds ratio or hazard ratio of approximately 1.4). Hazard ratios from Cox regression were used to calculate risk ratios that can be reported for Static-99R. We recommend that evaluators consider risk ratios as a useful, nonarbitrary metric for quantifying and communicating risk information. To avoid misinterpretation, however, risk ratios should be presented with recidivism base rates.

OBJECTIVES: While ecological studies indicate that high levels of structural racism within US states are associated with elevated infant mortality rates, studies using individual-level data are needed. To determine whether indicators of structural racism are associated with the individual odds for infant mortality among white and black infants for in the United States. METHODS: We used data on 2,163,096 white and 590,081 black infants from the 2010 U.S. Cohort Linked Birth/Infant Death Data Files. Structural racism indicators were ratios of relative proportions of blacks to whites for these domains: electoral (registered to vote and voted; state legislature representation), employment (civilian labor force; employed; in management; with a bachelor's degree), and justice system (sentenced to death; incarcerated). Multilevel logistic regression was used to determine whether structural racism indicators were risk factors of infant mortality. RESULTS: Compared to the lowest tertile ratio of relative proportions of blacks to whites with a bachelor's degree or higher–indicative of low structural racism–black infants, but not whites, in states with moderate (OR=1.12, 95% CI=0.94, 1.32) and high tertiles (OR=1.25, 95% CI=1.03, 1.51) had higher odds of infant mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Educational and judicial indicators of structural racism were associated with infant mortality among blacks. Decreasing structural racism could prevent black infant deaths.

Abstract

Research background: E-commerce is developing rapidly, especially during the Covid19 pandemic. This fact can benefit individuals who want to sell their already used goods. Importantly, for sellers, it is not always a priority to get the highest price, but sometimes it is simply effective to get rid of the goods at a satisfactory price.

Purpose: The aim of this article is to analyze the impact of the broadly understood time of the end of the online auction on the success or failure of a sale.

Research methodology: In the study, the raw odds ratio was used for the effect of a single variable. Next, the impact of specific variables within the set of risk factors was determined using the logistic regression.

Results: Auctions ending in the evening were found to be more than 150% more likely to be successful, while night hours reduced the chance of success by 50%. The day's most favorable for sales are Monday and Tuesday, the opposite pattern was observed for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. An interesting relationship was found for the second half of the month, which increased the possibility of selling the goods by over 20%.

Novelty: In the literature there are almost none that would focus on the analysis of the possibility of ending the auction with a sale (i.e. success) in the context of the auction end time on the Central European market. This issue is usually discussed on the side and has not been analyzed comprehensively – this paper is a step forward in this direction.

AbstractEstimating the risk of infections or other outcomes incident to pathogen exposure is a primary goal of quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). Such estimates are useful to predict population‐level risks, to evaluate exposures based on normative or tolerable risk guidelines, and to interpret the likely public health relevance of microbial measurements in environmental media. To evaluate alternative control measures (interventions), ratio estimates of effect (e.g., odds and risk ratios) are needed that are more broadly interpretable in the health sciences and consistent with convention in epidemiology. In this paper, we propose a general method for estimating widely used ratio measures of effect derived from stochastic QMRA approaches, including the generation of appropriate confidence intervals. Such QMRA‐derived ratios can be used as a basis for evaluating interventions via hypothesis testing and for inclusion in systematic reviews and meta‐analyses in a form consistent with risk estimation approaches commonly used in epidemiology.

Malaria is hyper-endemic in Ghana, accounting for 44% of outpatient attendance, 13% of all hospital deaths, and 22% of mortality among children less than five years of age. The paper analyzed the risk factors of malaria mortality among children using a logistic regression model and also assessed the interaction effect between age and treatment of malaria patient. Secondary data was obtained from the inpatient morbidity and mortality returns register at Tamale Teaching Hospital, from 1st January 2008 to 31st December 2010. The results showed that risk factors such as referral status, age, distance, treatment and length of stay on admission were important predictors of malaria mortality. However, it was found that the risk factors; sex and season were not good predictors of malaria mortality. Finally, the interaction effect between age and treatment was found to be significant. It was recommended, among other things, that the government should provide more assessable roads and expand ambulance services to the various Districts/communities in and around the Tamale metropolis to facilitate referral cases.

It is retrospective and hospital based case control study which was conducted in the federal city of Islamabad in Pakistan in order to assess the risk factors of the urinary bladder cancer. This study was based on the 100 controls and 50 cases comprising 150 subjects which were selected for interview from the two hospitals and required information like gender, age, smoking habits, family history of cancer, etc., was achieved. Both the descriptive and analytical approaches were used to find out the dominating risk factors of the disease. Odds ratios and 95 % Confidence Intervals were obtained for analytical purpose by using the binary logistic regression model. Three factors including cigarette smoking, source of drinking water and fried items were found to be significant having odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals of (17.158, 6.244- 47.147), (0.192, 0.061- 0.603) and (12.206, 3.291- 45.275), respectively. The study revealed that cigarette smoking, consumption of tap water and high use of fried items increases the risk of developing bladder cancer. On the other hand, the use of government provided for drinking purpose is a protection against the urinary bladder cancer as compared to tap water.

AbstractThe U.S. incarceration rate rose dramatically over the past 45 years, increasing the number of marriages and cohabiting unions disrupted by a jail or prison stay. But as some have pointed out, not all unions dissolve as a result of incarceration, and there seems to be racial–ethnic variation in this tendency, with Blacks displaying higher rates of dissolution than Whites and Hispanics. Yet it is unclear what explains racial–ethnic differences in union dissolution among the incarcerated. Drawing on the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97), we examine why racial–ethnic differences in union dissolution exist among a sample of individuals who had a marital or a cohabiting union interrupted by an incarceration spell. In doing so, we draw on social exchange theory and structural and cultural theories to suggest that racial–ethnic disparities in union dissolution are explained by differential exposure to protective relationship characteristics. The results of Cox hazard models reveal that Blacks have significantly higher hazards of union dissolution than do Whites and Hispanics. These results also indicate that being married, having a child together, having full‐time employment, a longer union duration, and a shorter incarceration spell may protect against dissolution and that these factors account, in part, for the greater risk of dissolution among Blacks relative to Whites and Hispanics.

Dengue fever (DF) is the most serious mosquito-borne viral disease in the world and is significantly affected by temperature. Although associations between DF and temperatures have been reported repeatedly, conclusions have been inconsistent. Six databases were searched up to 23 March 2014, without language and geographical restrictions. The articles that studied the correlations between temperatures and dengue were selected, and a random-effects model was used to calculate the pooled odds ratio and 95% confidence intervals. Of 1589 identified articles, 137 were reviewed further, with 33 satisfying inclusion criteria. The closest associations were observed between mean temperature from the included studies (23.2–27.7 °C) and DF (OR 35.0% per 1 °C ; 95% CI 18.3%–51.6%) positively. Additionally, minimum (18.1–24.2 °C) (29.5% per 1 °C ; 20.9%–38.1%) and maximum temperature (28.0–34.5 °C) (28.9% ; 10.3%–47.5%) were also associated with increased dengue transmission. The OR of DF incidence increased steeply from 22 °C to 29 °C, suggesting an inflexion of DF risk between these lower and upper limits of DF risk. This discovery is helpful for government decision-makers focused on preventing and controlling dengue in areas with temperatures within this range.