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This title discusses the role of entrepreneurship in recessions. Simon Parker has selected the key contributions in the literature, which seek to explain why economies enter into and emerge from recession, and the involvement of entrepreneurs in this process. A central theme is the contribution of entrepreneurship to the creation and propagation of business cycles. A combination of theoretical and empirical studies is included, and there is a particular focus on a salient issue which arises in recessions, namely unemployment. The book will be a useful resource for scholars and policy-makers interested in entrepreneurship, business cycles, economic growth and recessions

Intro -- Contents -- Introduction: Finding Opportunity in Adversity -- Sect. 1: Strategy in the Recession -- Ch. 1: Adapt Your Business to the New Reality -- Ch. 2: Avoid Making This Strategic Mistake in a Recession -- Sect. 2: Managing Your Business Through the Recession -- Ch. 3: What Really Prevents Companies from Thriving in a Recession -- Ch. 4: Do You Have the Right Sales Channels for a Downturn? -- Ch. 5: Joint Ventures and Partnerships in a Downturn -- Ch. 6: Don't Cut Your Marketing Budget in a Recession -- Ch. 7: Seven Strategies for Leading a Crisis-Driven Reorg -- Sect. 3: Entrepreneurship and Startups in the Recession -- Ch. 8: You Don't Have to Pivot in a Crisis -- Ch. 9: How to Launch a Startup in the Post-Covid Era -- Sect. 4: Managing Yourself and Your Career in the Recession -- Ch. 10: How to Find a (Great) Job During a Downturn -- Ch. 11: Growth After Trauma -- About the Contributors -- Index.

From reader JohnH in September 2022, who now states he "was not cheering a recession in mid-2022". …assuming, of course that we're not already in a recession…following the major economic slowdown! Of course, the Recession Deniers try to not believe the GNP numbers–"Don't worry; be happy!" I don't have a plot of GNP, but here's […]

Interview on CNN with LingLing Wei today, she doesn't say "recession", but the idea is there ("struggling, 'big time'"I think is the phrase). Here's a picture of industrial production ex.-construction through May, and ECRI's recession dates (peak-to-trough): Figure 1: Chinese industrial production ex-construction (black, left log scale). ECRI defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded light blue. […]

Based on a discussion sponsored by the Center for a New Democracy, July 25, 1985, and moderated by Gary Hart. Avoiding another recession, consequences if one occurs, and the steps necessary to alleviate it in the U.S.

Statistical models that estimate 12-month-ahead recession probabilities using the term spread have been around for many years. However, the reliability of the term spread as a predictor may have been affected by short-term interest rates being at zero. At the zero lower bound, long-term yields cannot go too far into negative territory due to the portfolio constraints of institutional investors. Therefore, the yield curve may not invert when it should or as much as it should despite the anticipated path of the economy. I enhance the simple model with two variables that should have predictive power for recessions.

This study proposes a data-based algorithm to select a subset of indicators from a large data set with a focus on forecasting recessions. The algorithm selects leading indicators of recessions based on the forecast encompassing principle and combines the forecasts. An application to U.S. data shows that forecasts obtained from the algorithm are consistently among the best in a large comparative forecasting exercise at various forecasting horizons. In addition, the selected indicators are reasonable and consistent with the standard leading indicators followed by many observers of business cycle

If no recession is forthcoming, what can we conclude, given most term spread models were signaling a "sure bet"? Unlikely outcome (it's a probabilistic world!), breakdown in historical correlations, omitted variable problem? In order to shed some light on this question, I examine probability estimates from (i) plain vanilla spread, (ii) debt-service-ratio and foreign term […]