Suchergebnisse

Although the human population growth rate of the world has been declining since peaking in the early 1960s, the populations of individual countries are changing at different rates. Population dynamics at national level are partly determined by levels of fertility and mortality, but the impact of international migration is playing an increasingly important role. Moreover, internal migration plays a major part in population change at the sub-national level.This fourth volume in the series "Understanding Population Trends and Processes" is a celebration of the work of Professor Philip Rees. It contains chapters by contributors who have collaborated with Phil Rees on research or consultancy projects or as postgraduate students. Several chapters demonstrate the technical nature of population projection modelling and simulation methods while others illustrate issues relating to data availability and estimation. This book demonstrates the application of theoretical and modelling methods and addresses key issues relating to contemporary demographic patterns and trends.

This paper proposes a new method for short-term county population projections. It is based on a modification of the ratio-correlation method of population estimation. The modified ratio-correlation method can produce projections with a high potential for accuracy without requiring substantial data and intensive intellectual labor inputs. Tests of accuracy are examined for the modified ratio-correlation method and two currently available alternatives using data from Washington state. The tests suggest that the new method performs well. Advantages of the modified ratio-correlation method are discussed, with particular attention given to the formal measurement of uncertainty. Forecast intervals are constructed and examined for the projections constructed for counties in Washington state. Given certain limitations, the forecast intervals appear to be robust in terms of providing accurate assessments of the precision associated with county population projections made using the modified ratio-correlation method.

The main goal of the paper is to show the application of the projection method as a tool for the analysis of transitional dynamics of endogenous growth models, the analysis which is very often omitted in common literature on the topic. The application of the method is demonstrated on an endogenous growth model with human capital accumulation and government sector. We analyze the long-run (steady states) and the short-run effects (transitional dynamics) of different fiscal policies. The transitional dynamics of the competitive equilibrium and the social optimum economies are compared. It is shown that when the economy starts with relatively abundant physical capital it is optimal to decrease its level very rapidly even at the cost of a big decline of consumption for a period of time. The introduction of education subsidies can bring the economy closer to the optimum and, therefore, improve the welfare of the society. ; Im Mittelpunkt des Papiers steht eine Anwendung der projection method am Beispiel eines endogenen Wachstumsmodelles mit Staatssektor und Humankapitalakkumulation. Bei der projection method handelt es sich um ein Instrument zur Analyse der Anpassungsdynamik in endogenen Wachstumsmodellen. In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden sowohl die Eigenschaften der langfristigen Gleichgewichtsbeziehungen als auch die kurzfristige Anpassungsdynamik unter Wettbewerbsbedingungen und unter Einbeziehung externer Effekte studiert. Es zeigt sich, daß die Einführung von Ausbildungssubventionen im Falle einer an physischem Kapital reichen Volkswirtschaft die Wohlfahrt derselben unter bestimmten Bedingungen erhöht.