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Several theoretical standpoints argue that the news media have a strong influence on audiences' perceptions of the social opinion climate. However, these theories sometimes ignore the active & critical role played by audiences in their interaction with news sources. This paper explores the association between opinion climate perceptions & audience mistrust of the news media. Data collected during the US presidential campaign of 2000 (N = 501) are used to test the hypothesis that media skepticism plays a part in the perception of the climate of opinion. Findings show that when people did not trust the media, they tended to reject the mediated climate of opinion. On the other hand, when people had faith in the media, they tended to consistently converge with the media's election predictions. Implications for media scholars are discussed. 1 Table, 1 Appendix, 59 References. Adapted from the source document.

This 1986 survey of 432 Madison, Wisconsin, residents describes an elaborated version of Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann's model of the "spiral of silence." Consistent with her hypotheses, persons whose opinions were congruent with those of the national majority were more willing to speak to a stranger than were those whose opinions were shared only by a minority; however, the same result was not obtained for either a different mode of expression or system level. Factors such as involvement and knowledge were found to directly influence opinion expression, whereas education and gender were found to be indirectly related to expression.

A large number of studies have been devoted to the impact of perceptions of opinion distributions on the expression of public opinion. In the present study, we propose that perceptions of opinion distributions have implications that go beyond influencing individual issue stances, also influencing respondents' willingness to engage in political activities. Specifically, we examine the link between opinion perceptions & two dimensions of political participation: participatory behavior involving public expression of opinion, & participatory behavior that does not involve the public expression of a person's opinion. Based on data collected as part of the 1996 American National Election Study, we examine the role that communication variables, group membership, attitude strength, & perceptions of public opinion play in predicting public & nonpublic forms of participation in the US. Implications for research in the areas of political participation & public opinion expression are outlined. 4 Tables, 2 Figures, 29 References. Adapted from the source document.

Media contain various cues to opinions of others and therefore serve as an important source of information about the climate of opinion. We distinguish explicit cues directly describing opinion distributions in society, from implicit cues lacking such a direct reference. In an experiment, we examined the relative impact of survey data (explicit cue) and arguments (implicit cue) on climate of opinion judgments. While survey results strongly affected assessments, argumentation had an effect only when no survey information was available. However, arguments produced an indirect effect, as they strongly affected personal opinions, which in turn influenced climate of opinion judgments (projection).

This study examines some of the psychological and social structural correlates of accuracy and inaccuracy in assessments of the climate of opinion about environmental problems using data from a telephone survey of 1,002 adults. News media use, news media influence, and information seeking were associated consistently with accurate assessments of the majority opinion. Situational theory's problem and constraint recognition were associated with accurate estimates of the climate of opinion and provided a means of determining whether or not respondents were actually accurate or were simply projecting their own opinions to the majority. Interpersonal discussions and environmental concern were associated with inaccurate assessments of majority opinion.

In this issue 3 papers are devoted to expositions of a technique for relating soc structural variables to opinion called contextual analysis (See SA A4327, A4336, & A4366). This technique can take many forms; these papers are based upon climate of opinion analysis. In such studies groups are characterized by the proportion of individuals who have a given attribute (such as holding a specific opinion), & individuals within groups are scored by whether or not they themselves have this attribute. It thus becomes possible to examine the effects of various climates upon the opinions & behavior of individuals. The 3 papers by J. A. Davis, J. A. Michael, & M. L. Levin display the following similarities: (1) The R's represent the universe of the groups studies: 172 Great Books discussion groups (Davis); 518 HSch's (Michael); & 10 HSch's (Levin). (2) The group climate of opinion is in each case measured by the proportion of the members of each group who have a given attribute: playing one or more roles in the course of group discussions (Davis); having parents of high/low socio-educ'al status (Michael); & having Republican parents (Levin). (3) Each individual in the group is scored on his possession of an attribute identical or closely related to the attribute used to measure the group climate of opinion: level of activity in role playing (Davis); socio-educ'al status of parents & scholastic ability of the students (Michael); & level of interest in politics (Levin). (4) A dependent variable known to be associated with the individual variable is selected: dropping out of the group (Davis); intending to enter Coll (Michael); & deviation from parents' pol'al preference (Levin). (5) The group climate of opinion & the individual variable are alternately held constant, yielding findings which demonstrate the impact of the group climate of opinion upon the opinions & behavior of the group members. AA.

Research has shown that politicians' perceptions of public opinion are subject to social projection. When estimating the opinions of voters on a broad range of issues, politicians tend to assume that their own preferences are shared by voters. This article revisits this finding and adds to the literature in three ways. First, it makes a conceptual contribution by bringing together different approaches to the analysis of projection and its consequences. Second, relying on data from surveys with politicians (n = 866) in four countries (Belgium, Canada, Germany, and Switzerland) conducted between March 2018 and September 2019, it shows that there is more projection in politicians' estimations of their partisan electorate than in their estimations of the general public or of their geographic district. Third, comparing the data on politician projection with data from parallel surveys with citizens, the article reveals that—at least in three out of the four countries studied here—elected politicians are not better at avoiding erroneous projection than ordinary citizens. The article discusses the implications of these findings for the workings of representative democracy.

Using consistency theory on both the intra-personal & the inter-personal level, the relationship between the opinions people have about a soc issue & their knowledge of the facts about that issue is examined. By fixed-choice questionaire, 593 Coll students were examined re their opinion on the issue of federal aid to Catholic parochial Sch's, the knowledge they possessed of the facts concerning the issue, & their perception of the opinions of others on that issue. It was affirmed that in this 'real life' setting most individuals know more facts which logically support their opinion on the issue than they do facts which logically contradict their opinion, & that this association is influenced by the strength of the individual's opinion, by his perception of whether others agree or disagree with his opinion on the issue, & by the N of others the individual perceives to agree or disagree with his opinion on the issue. AA.

An examination of the progress made in the use of surveys & the place of the 3 climate of opinion studies in this issue of the journal (See SA A4327, A4336, & A4366)within this development. 2 major milestones in the use of surveys are delineated: (1) the use of surveys to study is between characteristics of the pop, thus making the survey an analytical & explanatory tool rather than solely a barometer, & (2) the use of surveys to study problems re the functioning of a soc system, the relations between people, & the effect of a person's soc context upon him. The climate of opinion studies fall into the category of studies of the effects of soc context. They manifest 2 departures from usual survey analysis: (a) the sample includes interviews from all, or a large sample of, persons in each of several soc groups, & (b) 'the individual is characterized not only by attributes taken from his interview, but by attributes of his local unit.' It is suggested that 'the future development & use of such dual-level (or multiple-level) analyses as those exemplified here depend principally on the problem focus taken by survey analysts. The developments to date have not come from technical breakthroughs, but from asking diff kinds of res questions from surveys than we have been used to asking.' I. Taviss.