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The uncovered interest rate parity condition lies at the heart of the "impossible trinity", stating that the three objectives of fixed exchange rates, free capital flows, and independent monetary policy cannot be pursued simultaneously. We argue that although monetary unification does indeed eliminate the tension between exchange rates and nominal interest rates, it does not solve the problem of the intrinsic instability of the system. By eliminating the intra-area exchange rates (with a single currency) and interest rate differentials (with a single common policy rate set by the common central bank), the problem of instability is simply transferred to inflation rate differentials, what we call the (impossibility of the) "uncovered inflation rate parity condition" in a monetary union. The analysis of the actual divergences and imbalances in the EMU, then, suggests that failure to respect the "uncovered inflation rate parity condition" in a monetary union may lead to increasing economic and political tensions. Thus we conclude with the application of the Rodrik's political trilemma to the EMU, which epitomises the existential challenges that the EU faces nowadays.

This book presents an extensive survey of the theory and empirics of international parity conditions which are critical to our understanding of the linkages between world markets and the movement of interest and exchange rates across countries. The book falls into three parts dealing with the theory, methods of econometric testing and existing empirical evidence. Although it is intended to provide a consensus view on the subject, the authors also make some controversial propositions, particularly on the purchasing power parity conditions.

Having in mind the various effects of an Economic Union with a common currency such as the EMU, we examine the existence of Real Interest Rate Parity conditions, as these are defined by the general theory of Purchasing Power Parity theory, among several European Union member states since after the introduction of the Euro an ideal setting has emerged for existence of such a parity (common currency, one central bank that regulates the markets and sets the reference interest rate for the participating members, introduction of common legislative guidelines for tax setting, removal of trade and fund transfer barriers etc.).The study contains three main sections. In the next section, we describe the establishment of the economic and monetary union. Moreover it is examined whether financial structures across European countries have become more similar after the introduction of the single currency. Section 2 assesses the progress toward financial integration in the major euro-area financial segments, namely money markets, bond markets, equity markets and banking. This section also describes some of the most interesting financial developments that occurred alongside with the integration process, partly spurred by the euro. In section 3 we present the general theory of PPP and a literature review of the previous studies in the subject of Real Interest Rate parity. In section 4 we present and our empirical analysis and the results that were derived and we conclude with Section 5.

By employing Lucas' (1982) model, this study proposes an arbitrage relationship – the Uncovered Equity Return Parity (URP) condition – to explain the dynamics of exchange rates. When expected equity returns in a country/region are lower than expected equity returns in another country/region, the currency associated with the market offering lower returns is expected to appreciate. First, we test the URP assuming that investors are risk neutral and next we relax this hypothesis. The resulting risk premia are proxied by economic variables, which are related to the business cycle. We employ differentials in corporate earnings' growth rates, short-term interest rate changes, annual inflation rates, and net equity flows. The URP explains a large fraction of the variability of some European currencies vis-à-vis the US dollar. When confronted with the naïve random walk model, the URP for the EUR/USD performs better in terms of forecasts for a set of alternative statistics.

The real interest parity (RIP) condition combines two cornerstones in international finance, uncovered interest parity (UIP) and ex ante purchasing power parity (PPP). The extent of deviation from RIP is therefore an indicator of the lack of product and financial market integration. This paper investigates whether the nominal exchange rate regime has an impact on RIP. The analysis is based on 15 annual real interest rates and covers a long time span, 1870-2006. Four subperiods are distinguished and linked to fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes: the Gold Standard, the interwar float, the Bretton Woods system and the current managed float. Panel integration techniques are applied to increase the power of the tests, where cross section correlation is embedded via common factor structures. The results suggest that RIP holds as a long run condition irrespectively of the nominal exchange rate regime. However, adjustment towards RIP is affected by both the institutional framework and the historical episode. Half lives of shocks tend to be lower under fixed exchange rates and in the first part of the sample. Although barriers to trade and capital controls have been removed, they did not lead to lower half lives during the managed float.

This paper investigates capital market integration in the major Central European emerging economies by testing the covered and uncovered interest parity conditions vis-á-vis the U.S. dollar and the DM/euro. The results for the Central European economies since 1997 are contrasted against those of the euro countries during the period preceding the introduction of the euro. This allows a comparison of conditions in the capital markets in the Central European economies versus those in the pre-euro EU. The results suggest that capital mobility and exchange rate market efficiency in Central Europe are remarkably similar to conditions in the EU during the 1990s.