Suchergebnisse

This paper analyzes the international transmission of economic distur-bances in a three-country world where two countries have no macroeconomic impact on a third country but are large enough to influence each other un-der fixed and flexible exchange rates. While the fixed exchange rate (FER) regime is shown to insulate the domestic economy from monetary shocks, the flexible exchange rate (FLER) regime is shown to be effective in dam-pening the impact of real shocks on domestic Output. As far as the shocks coming from the large country are concemed, the exchange rate flexibility serves as an important tool in reducing the variability of output.

We present a two-country New Open Economy Macro model of the Austrian economy within the European Union's Economic & Monetary Union (EMU). The model includes both nominal and real frictions that have proven to be important in matching business cycle facts, and that allows for an investigation of the effects and cross-country transmission of a number of structural shocks: shocks to technologies, shocks to preferences, cost-push type shocks and policy shocks. The model is estimated using Bayesian methods on quarterly data covering the period of 1976:Q1-2005:Q1. In addition to the assessment of the relative importance of various shocks, the model also allows to investigate effects of the monetary regime switch with the final stage of the EMU and investigates in how far this has altered macroeconomic transmission. We find that Austria's economy appears to react stronger to demand shocks, while in the rest of the Euro Area supply shocks have a stronger impact. Comparing the estimations on pre-EMU and EMU subsamples we find that the contribution of (rest of the) Euro Area shocks to Austria's business cycle fluctuations has increased significantly.