Suchergebnisse

1 What is a model? -- 1.1 The concept of models -- 1.2 Word models -- 1.3 Definition of model -- 1.4 Examples -- 2 Why do I need a model? -- 2.1 Reason for use of models -- 2.2 Complexity -- 2.3 Integration and testing of compatibility of information already collected about a system -- 2.4 Simulation as a synthesis of available information -- 3 How do I start? -- 3.1 Defining the problem -- 3.2 Word models -- 3.3 Diagrams -- 4 What help can I expect from mathematics? -- 4.1 Mathematical notations -- 4.2 Families of mathematical models -- 5 Do I need a computer? -- 5.1 Access to computers -- 5.2 Computer languages -- 5.3 Using the computer -- 6 How do I know when to stop? -- 6.1 Re-examination of objectives -- 6.2 Sensitivity analysis -- 6.3 Verification -- 6.4 Validation -- Appendix: Modelling checklist -- References.

AbstractWhat is the connection between modelling thought and modelling the brain? In a model (as understood here), we strip away from the modelled system some non-essential features and retain some essential ones. What are the essential features of thought that are to be retained in the model, and conversely, what are its inessential features, that may be stripped away in the model? According to a prevalent view in contemporary science and philosophy, thought is a computation, and therefore its essential features are its computational features. A necessary part of the computational view of thought is the idea that the same computation can be realised by, or implemented in, physically heterogeneous systems, an idea known as "Multiple Realizability" of the computational features or properties by the physical ones. I will describe why the very idea of Multiple Realizability, especially in the case of mental computation, entails mind-body dualism, and explore some implications of this conclusion concerning the question of which are the essential features of thought to be retained in modeling it.

Modelling represents a core method of investigation in the sciences. Relying on a number of case studies, I want to explore the main concepts that denote the practice of modeling in pure and applied sciences. I argue that these concepts could be seen as metaphors to reflect upon when exploring how the practices of modeling are characterised across different disciplines.

A simple, general mathematical model for modern war is presented. The form of the model is Lanchester but its derivation owes approximately equal amounts to classical operational research and to later ideas associated with theoretical ecology - especially the concept of `carrying capacity'. Solutions to the equations corresponding to stalemated, steady-state outcomes in theatre are concentrated on, with empirical justification derived from the unduly neglected databased work of Voevodsky. Prolongation and stalemate are seen as the default state of modern war. War termination is discussed as a consequence of `mutually (but not equally) hurting stalemate'. Examples are given of how, in certain circumstances, stalemate may be pre-empted in theatre by striking at non-battlefield targets and light is cast on the late 20th-century strategic trend towards conducting war preponderantly from the air.

Reviews and discusses E.D. Mansfield, Power, trade, and war (Princeton, NJ, 1994). (Original abstract-amended)

"With this fourth edition, Modelling Transport has been fully updated and revised to retain its position as the market-leading text in the field of transport modelling. As with previous editions, each subject is approached as a modelling exercise with discussion of the roles of theory, data, model specification, estimation, validation and application. This edition features four significant content enhancements; a new chapter on modelling for private sector projects; a new chapter on activity-based modelling; a new section on dynamic assignment and micro-simulation; and sizeable updates to the disaggregate modelling and Stated Preference sections. It also tackles topical issues such as congestion charging, global warming and the role of GPS in travel time surveys"--Provided by publisher

This book arose out of research carried out by the authors in the period 1983-1987 whilst at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. A number of things combined to impart the basic thrust of the research: partly the developments in formulating and estimating rational expectations models, and partly actual developments in the UK economy itself. An application of recent developments in dynamic modelling to a complete macroeconometric model of the UK is presented. Rational expectations modelling, co-integration and disequilibrium modelling are covered. The book also develops computational procedures for obtaining efficient solutions to large-scale models, and illustrates model solutions assuming rational expectations and stochastic simulations. Finally, sections on the analysis of models using optimal control methods illustrate applications of a large-scale econometric model. This section also discusses policy applications, including the derivation of time-consistent policies in the presence of rational expectations, giving quantified illustrations.

Introduction --Theorising Norms --Theorising Crime --Agent-Based Modelling --The Environment and Social Norms --Punishment and Social Norms --Imitation and Social Norms --Socially Situated Social Norms --Internalisation and Social Norms --Modelling Norms --Delinquent Networks --Social Construction of Knowledge --Morality --We-Intentionality --Conclusion.