Suchergebnisse

Intro -- OIL PRICES FUNDAMENTALS, FLUCTUATIONS AND IMPACTS -- OIL PRICES FUNDAMENTALS, FLUCTUATIONS AND IMPACTS -- CONTENTS -- PREFACE -- Chapter 1 SPECULATION, FUNDAMENTALS, AND OIL PRICES* -- SUMMARY -- INTRODUCTION -- OIL MARKETS, PRICES, AND DERIVATIVES -- The Mechanics of a Futures Contract -- Who Trades in Oil Derivatives Markets -- Commercial Hedgers -- Swap Dealers -- Money Managers -- Other Speculators -- SPECULATION AND HEDGING IN OIL FUTURES MARKETS -- PRICE IMPACT OF SPECULATION -- DERIVATIVES MARKETS AND PRICE DISTORTIONS -- Manipulation -- Speculation -- Theories of Speculation -- Excessive Speculation -- Arguments that Oil Speculation has been Excessive -- FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS -- Economic Growth Lifts Demand -- Supply Cannot Keep up -- Price Inelasticity of Supply and Demand Enables Large Price Swings -- CONGRESSIONAL ACTION -- CONCLUSION -- APPENDIX A. SPECULATIVE TRADING AND PRICE -- APPENDIX B. OPTIONS -- APPENDIX C. SWAPS -- End Notes -- Chapter 2 OIL PRICE FLUCTUATIONS* -- SUMMARY -- INTRODUCTION -- The U.S. Situation -- The United States in a Global Oil Market -- OIL PRICES AND THE U.S. ECONOMY -- MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: GLOBAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND -- Demand Growth Led by Developing Countries -- Challenges to Oil Supply Growth -- OPEC's Role in the Oil Market -- Peak Oil Concerns -- Refining and Crude Oil Prices -- Prices Collapse with Recession, Rebound with Recovery -- June 2011 Strategic Petroleum Reserve Release -- Future Fundamentals and the Price of Oil -- Supply and Demand Policy Measures -- Domestic Oil and Gas Drilling -- Demand Efficiency -- Alternative Fuels -- Strategic Petroleum Reserve -- Foreign Policy -- NON-FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS: SPECULATION, MANIPULATION, AND THE DOLLAR -- The Role of Speculators -- Regulation of Speculators -- Recent Legislation -- Manipulation of Physical Prices

The big oil price swing that occurred in 2007–9 has worried governments from oil-exporting and -importing countries. The main fact is well known. The price of WTI as it arises in the New York futures exchange (NYMEX) increased to an unprecedented height of more than $140 per barrel in early July 2008, and then collapsed in a free fall to a low of $32.40 per barrel in December 2008, less than six months later.

Following record low interest rates and fast depreciating U.S. dollar, crude oil prices became under rising pressure and seemed boundless. Oil price process parameters changed drastically in 2003M5-2007M10 toward consistently rising prices. Short-term forecasting would imply persistence of observed trends, as market fundamentals and underlying monetary policies were supportive of these trends. Market expectations derived from option prices anticipated further surge in oil prices and allowed significant probability for right tail events. Given explosive trends in other commodities prices, depre

Now in current situation oil prices are increasing day to day. So people have to face the problem of price inflation of oil. I have decided to focus on impact of high oil prices on Indian Economy and World Economy.Crude oil price has been increased because crude oil demand has been increased. But we have enough oil storage capacity. The average annual rate of growth of crude oil production in the country over the last 10 years was negative 0.2%. But I have observed that demand is increased every time. In 2004 the international energy agency has to revise upward its estimates for global oil demand by over 3 million barrels per day. It is one of the largest margins of such revisions in recent decades. This was mainly because of the strong demand for oil in china and the United States. Many including the electricity shortages in china have added to the demand for diesel generator. A shift in preference toward fuel inefficient vehicles in the United States was another factor. The other factor that contributed in increase in demand for oil in the United States was the sharp increase in natural gas prices. China and the United States account from around 44% of the incremental increase in global oil demand from between 1995 to 2014.