Suchergebnisse

Despite the evidence of benefits from GM papaya's adoption in other countries, concerns over the loss of export markets and health and environmental risks have led to great uncertainty and indecision about policies to support biotechnology in Thailand. Since 2001, field trials have been banned and the use of transgenic plants for production, consumption, or commercialization has been prohibited. Field trials in government fields were reinstated in December 2007, but agricultural biotechnology policies remain unclear. This article estimates what the economic impact of the adoption of GM papaya would be if Thailand were to authorize the use of GM technology. ; Financial support of this study was received from CropLife (Thailand) and the Biotechnology Alliance Association.

Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) white maize was field tested in El Salvador in 2009. Results showed sufficient pest abatement, eliminating the need for insecticide applications, and an average yield increase of 18% above that of the most widely cultivated conventional hybrid. This article presents an ex ante economic impact assessment of Bt maize adoption in El Salvador. Ten-year economic surplus projections show a considerable welfare gain for the overall economy, with consumers being the principal beneficiaries. Trade implications of adopting Bt maize are analyzed and appropriate alternatives to possible market shutdowns are explored. Results obtained in this study could compliment the agronomic evaluation of Bt maize and become part of the Salvadoran government decision process on Bt maize adoption.

Productive electricity use is widely believed to contribute to positive impacts of electrification projects. This paper investigates these impacts by comparing the performance of micro manufacturing enterprises in grid-covered and non-covered villages in Northern Benin. Using firm-level data, the empirical analysis employs a Propensity Score Matching. While beneficial impacts are found from firm creation after electrification, firms that existed before actually show a non-significantly inferior performance to their matched counterparts from a non-electrified region. Complementary measures that sensitize firms about the implications of a grid connection are recommended as important features of program design.

Turkey's energy demand has been growing by 4.5% per year over the last decade. As a reaction to this, the Turkish government has implemented the Strategic Energy Efficiency Plan (SEEP), which provides a guideline for energy efficiency policies in all sectors. The aim of this study is to analyse the potential of the SEEP on final energy demand in the Turkish residential sector until 2030. Three scenarios are developed based on a detailed bottom-up modelling approach using a vintage stock model to simulate the energy demand of heating systems and appliances. The results show a decreasing final energy demand in the reference scenario from about 944 PJ in 2008 to 843 PJ in 2030. This reflects a structural break, which is mainly caused by a high building demolition rate and low efficiency in the existing building stock. The SEEP achieves additional savings of around 111 PJ until 2030, while a scenario with even higher efficiency shows further savings of 91 PJ. Electricity demand increases in all scenarios - mainly due to growing ownership rates of appliances. The SEEP will achieve around 10 TWh of electricity savings in 2030 compared to the reference scenario, mainly through more ambitious end-use standards.

Ex-ante impact assessment of agricultural, environmental, and rural policies has become an integral part of political decision making processes in the EU. While there is a large variety of agri-environmental modelling tools available to analyse likely social, economic, and environmental impacts of these policies, scientifically well-founded ex-ante policy assessment tools capturing institutional dimensions are still missing. In this paper, we introduce a formalised procedure for modelling - ex-ante - institutional aspects for policy implementation: the 'Procedure for Institutional Compatibility Assessment' (PICA). It has recently been developed within the SEAMLESS project as a component of an integrative modelling framework for ex-ante assessment of policy impacts on sustainable development. PICA is based on the assumption that the effectiveness of a policy and the cost-effectiveness of its implementation largely depend on the degree of compatibility between this policy and the institutional context in the respective countries and regions. It has been designed as an explorative and flexible, yet formalised methodology that enables policy makers to identify at an early stage potential institutional incompatibilities. After providing a brief overview of relevant approaches for policy assessment we elaborate on the four distinct steps of PICA and use a core element of the EU Nitrate Directive to illustrate its function.