Disasters Implied by Equity Index Options
In: NBER Working Paper No. w15240
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In: NBER Working Paper No. w15240
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We extend the Barro (2006) closed-economy model of the equity risk premium in the presence of extreme events (disasters) to a two-country world. In this more general setting, both the output risk of rare disasters and the associated risk of a default on Government debt, can be diversiÖed. The extent to which agents in one country can diversify away the risk of extreme events depends on the relative size of the two countries, and critically on the probability of a disaster in one country conditional on a disaster in the other. We show that, using Barroís own calibration in combination with a broad range of plausible values for the additional parameters, the model implies levels of the equity risk premium far lower than those typically observed in the data. We conclude that the model is unlikely to explain the equity risk premium.
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Working paper
In: Journal of economic dynamics & control, Band 114, S. 103899
ISSN: 0165-1889
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In: Journal of economic dynamics & control, Band 112, S. 103852
ISSN: 0165-1889
In: The Geneva papers on risk and insurance - issues and practice, Band 25, Heft 2, S. 203-219
ISSN: 1468-0440
In: Emerging markets, finance and trade: EMFT, Band 55, Heft 2, S. 251-271
ISSN: 1558-0938
In: Weather, climate & society, Band 14, Heft 4, S. 1273-1285
ISSN: 1948-8335
Abstract
Climate change increases the probability and intensity of disaster and brings adverse impacts on social and economic activities. This paper presents the impact of climate risk on the cost of equity capital (COE) and sheds light on the influence mechanisms and moderating factors between climate disaster shocks and the COE in a developing country. We first explain how climate risk represented by drought impacts the COE theoretically. Using the sample data listed in A-share market from 2004 to 2019, we find that drought leads to the rise of the COE due to the deterioration of information environment and the rise of business risk. Specifically, the influence mechanism is tested, and the results show that 1) drought increases firms' real earnings management 2) and drought has a negative impact on the firms' return on asset (ROA). Namely, the influence mechanism of drought on the COE is that drought changes the firms' information environment and business activities. Further analysis shows that the impact of drought on the COE is different in a heterogeneous firm. The drought has a significant impact on the COE in firms with low-ability managers, state-owned enterprises, and politically connected firms, but the impact is not significant in firms with high-ability managers, non-state-owned enterprises, and nonpolitically connected firms. Our research helps people to understand the consequences of climate change from the microeconomic-level firm's perspective.
Problem, research strategy, and findings: The Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) is the most common financing mechanism for subsidized housing production in America. We investigate how and to what extent states are currently using the LIHTC to prepare for and recover from disasters. We systematically code guidelines in the 2017 LIHTC qualified allocation plans from 53 states and territories to identify disaster-related provisions. Twenty-four states and territories include provisions for preparedness or recovery in their allocation plans, of which 13 include only preparedness provisions, 3 include only recovery provisions, and 8 include both types. Preparedness provisions address project design and siting, whereas recovery provisions direct credits to disaster-affected areas or the replacement of damaged units. Using t tests, we compare three sets of states—those without any disaster-related provisions, those with either preparedness or recovery provisions, and those with both types of provisions—across measures of housing cost, demographic composition, disaster exposure, and political ideology. States with higher homeownership rates, lower home values, and lower rents are more likely than other states to have either or both types of provisions. Future research should investigate state adoption of disaster-related LIHTC provisions to better inform affordable housing policy. Takeaway for practice: State governments could mitigate disaster-related hazards and help speed recovery by including locally relevant preparedness and recovery provisions in their LIHTC allocation plans. These provisions could encourage resilient construction, weigh the social costs and benefits of LIHTC construction in floodplains, or waive program rules to address postdisaster housing shortages.
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In: IJDRR-D-22-01819
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Federal financing and funding programs post-disaster -- The role of the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development in post disaster community recovery -- Beyond the Stafford Act : a human rights approach to disaster policy -- Equity in disasters : civil and human rights challenges in the context of emergency events -- Local government and interjurisdictional coordination in disaster response and recovery -- The role of nonprofits and religious organizations in emergency response -- Equity in disasters : civil and human rights challenges in the context of emergency events -- The 9/11 attack on America and lessons on how to rebuild a mixed use business district -- Small business disaster assistance -- Restoring small business : a state agency response to the 2008 Iowa disasters -- The 2008 Texas hurricanes : working for equitable and transparent redevelopment -- Public housing : to rehabilitate or replace? -- Locked out and torn down : public housing post Katrina -- Wolf at the door : protecting homeowners from predatory housing activities in the wake of disaster -- Housing choice in crisis : short term post-Katrina relief -- Disasters' long term impact on fair housing : rebuilding as an engine to perpetuate or challenge entrenched segregation -- Innovative post-disaster community-based housing strategies -- Disaster as a catalyst for collaboration and innovation : workforce development in Mississippi following hurricane Katrina
In: State and local government review: a journal of research and viewpoints on state and local government issues, Band 41, Heft 1
ISSN: 0160-323X
When disaster strikes, some populations (including low-income individuals, the disabled, the elderly, and non-English speakers) may be more vulnerable than others in terms of their capacity to cope during and after an event. Government has an important role to play in reducing these vulnerabilities by promoting social equity in the provision of services. In this study, data from 31 localities across the United States are used to examine whether (and how) county and city governments consider the needs of these vulnerable populations as they develop their emergency operations plans, which guide their response efforts to disasters. The primary findings of content analyses of the plans suggest that local governments tend to give more attention to two of these four groups: the elderly and the disabled. Recommendations for ways in which social equity concerns may be addressed in emergency operations plans are offered. Adapted from the source document.
In: Paris December 2017 Finance Meeting EUROFIDAI - AFFI
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