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This paper briefly outlines the theoretical problem of the identification of duration-of-stay effects in migration. The empirical studies are critically reviewed with particular emphasis upon their treatment of heterogeneity and nonstationarity. New statistical tests developed by the authors are applied to Wisconsin migration data. These tests suggest that although heterogeneity and nonstationarity are strongly present within the data, duration-of-stay effects appear weak.

Although there have been several empirical tests of the cumulative inertia hypothesis, the more recent theoretical work by Ginsberg (1973), McFarland (1970), and Spilerman (1972b) suggests that whereas these tests may support the existence of duration-of-stay effects they do not prove the existence of cumulative inertia as defined by McGinnis (1968). The tests are replicated and a new group of tests are applied to a data set of individual household moves for the Milwaukee metropolitan region. The new tests attempt to distinguish between the effects of heterogeneity, cumulative inertia, and changes in the rates of mobility. The results emphasize that even when cumulative inertia exists it is a very weak influence on the probability of migrating and that duration of stay since the last move is an inadequate measure of residence history effects.

Background: It can be assumed that resettlers (ethnic German immigrants from the Former Soviet Union) show similar smoking patterns as persons in their countries of origin at the time of migration. We analysed how the smoking prevalence among resettlers differs from that among the general population of Germany and whether the prevalence differs between groups with increasing duration of stay. Methods: To estimate the smoking prevalence we used the scientific-use-file (n = 477,239) of the German 2005 microcensus, an annual census representing 1% of all German households. Participation in the microcensus is obligatory (unit-nonresponse <7%). We stratified the prevalence of smoking among resettlers and the comparison group (population of Germany without resettlers) by age, sex, educational level and duration of stay. In total, 14,373 (3% of the total) persons were identified as resettlers. Results: Female resettlers with short duration of stay had a significantly lower smoking prevalence than women in the comparison group. With increasing duration of stay their smoking prevalence appears to converge to that of the comparison group (e.g.: high educational level, age group 25-44 years: short duration of stay 15%, long duration of stay 24%, comparison group 28%). In contrast, the smoking prevalence among male resettlers with short duration of stay was significantly higher than that among men in the comparison group, but also with a trend towards converging (e.g.: high educational level, age group 25-44 years: short duration of stay 44%, long duration of stay 35%, comparison group 36%). Except for female resettlers with short duration of stay, the participants with low educational level had on average a higher smoking prevalence than those with a high educational level. Conclusions: This is the first study estimating the smoking prevalence among resettlers by duration of stay. The results support the hypothesis that resettlers brought different smoking habits from their countries of origin shortly after migration. The observed convergence of the smoking habits with increasing duration of stay is in line with the hypothesis of migration as 'health transition'. However, due to the cross-sectional design of the study, further research is needed to confirm these findings.

Taking up Grosz's proposal for the `complexities of time and becoming' to be considered seriously, this article explores the status of time and the future within feminist theory through empirical research in which teenage girls describe things `staying'. Focusing on these `things that stay' and drawing on Bergson's concepts of duration and the virtual, the article argues that time is dynamic and heterogeneous; things endure through divergence and transformation. It argues that if the relations of temporality are understood as both continuous and discontinuous, enduring and changing, feminist theory orients to the future in `novel' ways.