Suchergebnisse

AbstractThis paper explores the effectiveness of boosting, often regarded as the state of the art classification tool, in giving warning signals of recessions 3, 6, and 12 months ahead. Boosting is used to screen as many as 1,500 potentially relevant predictors consisting of 132 real and financial time series and their lags. Estimation over the full sample 1961:1–2011:12 finds that there are fewer than 10 important predictors and the identity of these variables changes with the forecast horizon. There is a distinct difference in the size and composition of the relevant predictor set before and after mid‐1980. Rolling window estimation reveals that the importance of the term and default spreads are recession specific. The Aaa spread is the most robust predictor of recessions three and 6 months ahead, while the risky bond and 5‐year spreads are important for 12 months ahead predictions. Certain employment variables have predictive power for the two most recent recessions when the interest rate spreads were uninformative. Warning signals for the post‐1990 recessions have been sporadic and easy to miss. The results underscore the challenge that changing characteristics of business cycles pose for predicting recessions.

Education experts answer Ofsted criticism of the quality of education for disadvantaged young pupils

Youth social action scheme must engage more disadvantaged young people to hit growth targets

Report on recent efforts by the Union of Arab Chambers of Commerce, the Inter-Arab Investment Guarantee Corporation and the Arab League of overcoming Arab dependence on foreign technology as well as the lack of Arab industrial integration. The remedy is seen in regionally comprehensive Arab joint ventures in electronics, chemicals, engineering, food and agro-industry. Priority suggestions include the setting-up of a large pan-Arab petrochemical company, which would buy products from producers and resell them on world markets. (DÜI-Asd)

Innovation is key to the future of Europe. This Policy Contribution, written together by Mathias Dewatripont, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management; Bruno van Pottelsberghe and André Sapir, Senior Fellows at Bruegel and professors at ULB; and Reinhilde Veugelers, senior fellow at Bruegel and professor at Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, makes suggestions based on three principles: to give primacy to merit-based selection of projects at the European level, to strengthen the single market to make it conducive for research and innovation and to remove barriers that hinder dynamic restructuring. This paper is addressed to the July 2010 informal Competitiveness Council (Research) under the Belgian Presidency.

Boosting innovation in European bioeconomy
New projects to drive innovation within the European bioeconomy being funded by the CBE JU are outlined here. The Circular Bio-based Europe Joint Undertaking (CBE JU), a €2 billion public-private partnership advancing competitive circular bio-based industries in Europe, has signed its first 21 grant agreements this year. Two hundred ninety-three beneficiaries from 27 countries will receive €116 million in funding to develop new bio-based products and materials, first-of-their-kind production facilities, and innovative processes. The new projects will boost the competitiveness and increase the resilience of Europe's bio-based economy by using often-underutilised resources to produce consumer products and industrial solutions to replace fossil-based ones. This will reduce the EU's reliance on strategic imports and create new value chains, business opportunities, and green jobs, particularly in rural areas.