Suchergebnisse

Abstract
Euro Area sovereign bond yield spreads fell significantly after the creation of the monetary union and moved in unison until the recession of 2008, when investors' risk pricing changed considerably. Rising bond yield spreads caught the attention of economists who tried to find the factors influencing their size. Evolution of bond spreads was mostly related to various macroeconomic factors as well as the soundness of the countries' banking sectors and a general level of risk aversion in the financial markets. Analysis presented in this paper compares bond yield spreads of Euro Area member countries and relates them to their debt levels as well as the liquidity of the securities and a general level of risk aversion. Apart from the usual variables, we also analysed differences in purchasing power to assess the impact of the common monetary policy in the pre-crisis period. After adjusting the model to better explain movements of linear regression residuals, we could not prove a systematic assessment of the above-mentioned factors except for time periods of high market volatility. We explain sudden changes in the importance of idiosyncratic factors as consequences of policies of the European Central Bank and other European Union institutions following such time periods, which, as our analysis suggests, distorted pricing of risk in the markets.

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics ; This paper seeks to find out the determinants of the 10 year Portuguese government bond yield spread for the period between the January of 2010 and December of 2012. Fundamental factors (debt ratio and government balance in % of GDP) and contagion effects are the main drivers behind the surge of the yield spread during the first two years of the sample. Liquidity risk (measured by the bid-ask spread) and the size of the banking system are also significant determinants. These same factors however, have no significance in explaining the drop in the yield spread during the final seven months of the sample.

Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira ; Um conjunto de dados de painel de países da área do euro foi utilizado para avaliar os determinantes dos spreads de rentabilidade de títulos soberanos do primeiro trimestre de 1995 ao último trimestre de 2017. No período anterior à crise financeira, os spreads foram determinados principalmente pela dívida esperada em relação ao PIB, fator de risco de crédito e crescimento econômico. Com a erupção da crise financeira, a análise sugere que os mercados começaram a levar em consideração mais fundamentos para determinar o preço dos spreads, como risco de liquidez e risco internacional. Concluiu-se também que existe uma diferença entre os determinantes do spread entre o grupo periferico e o grupo central. ; A panel dataset of euro area countries was used to assess the determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads from first quarter of 1995 to the last quarter of 2017. In the period before the financial crisis, the government bond yield spreads were mostly determined by the expected debt to GDP, the credit risk factor and economic growth. With the eruption of the financial crisis, the analysis suggests that markets have started to take into consideration more fundamentals to determine the price of government bond yield spreads, such as liquidity risk and international risk. It was also concluded that there is a difference between the determinants of the government bond yield spread of core and periphery group. ; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

We use a panel of euro area countries to assess the determinants of long-term sovereign bond yield spreads over the period 1999.01-2010.12. We find that, unlike the period preceding the global financial crisis, European government bond yield spreads are wellexplained by macro- and fiscal fundamentals over the crisis period. We also find that the menu of macro and fiscal risks priced by markets has been significantly enriched since March 2009, including the risk of the crisis' transmission among EMU member states, international risk and liquidity risk. Finally, we find that sovereign credit ratings are statistically significant in explaining spreads, yet compared to macro- and fiscal fundamentals their role is limited.

We study the determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads across 10 EMU countries between Q1/1999 and Q1/2010. We apply a semiparametric time-varying coefficient model to identify, to what extent an observed change in the yield spread is due to a shift in macroeconomic fundamentals or due to altering risk pricing. We find that at the beginning of EMU, the government debt level and the general investors' risk aversion had a significant impact on interest differentials. In the subsequent years, however, financial markets paid less attention to the fiscal position of a country and the safe haven status of Germany diminished in importance. By the end of 2006, two years before the fall of Lehman Brothers, financial markets began to grant Germany safe haven status again. One year later, when financial turmoil began, the market reaction to fiscal loosening increased considerably. The altering in risk pricing over time period confirms the need of time-varying coefficient models in this context.

We study the determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads across 10 EMU countries between Q1/1999 and Q1/2010. We apply a semiparametric time-varying coefficient model to identify, to what extent an observed change in the yield spread is due to a shift in macroeconomic fundamentals or due to altering risk pricing. We find that at the beginning of EMU, the government debt level and the general investors' risk aversion had a significant impact on interest differentials. In the subsequent years, however, financial markets paid less attention to the fiscal position of a country and the safe haven status of Germany diminished in importance. By the end of 2006, two years before the fall of Lehman Brothers, financial markets began to grant Germany safe haven status again. One year later, when financial turmoil began, the market reaction to fiscal loosening increased considerably. The altering in risk pricing over time period confirms the need of time-varying coefficient models in this context.

We use a panel of euro area countries to assess the determinants of long-term sovereign bond yield spreads over the period 1999.01-2010.12. We find that, on top of the fundamentals themselves, changes in the sensitivity of bond prices to fundamentals are also necessary to explain yields over the crisis period. We also find that the menu of macro and fiscal risks priced by markets has been significantly enriched since March 2009, including international financial risk and liquidity risk. Finally, we find that sovereign credit ratings are statistically significant in explaining spreads, yet compared to macro- and fiscal fundamentals their role is limited.

This paper analyses the effects of newspaper coverage of macro news on the spread between the yield on the 10-year German Bund and on sovereign bonds in eight countries belonging to the euro area (Belgium, France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain) using daily data for the period 1999 - 2014. The econometric analysis is based on the estimation of a VAR-GARCH model. The results can be summarized as follows. Negative news have significant positive effects on yield spreads in all PIIGS countries but Italy before September 2008; markets respond more to negative news, and their reaction has increased during the recent financial crisis. News volatility has a significant impact on yield spread volatility, the effects being more pronounced in the case of negative news and bigger in the most recent crisis period, especially in the PIIGS countries. Further, the conditional correlations between yield spreads and negative news are significant and positive, and their increase in absolute value during the financial crisis (especially in the PIIGS countries) indicates a higher sensitivity of yield spreads to negative releases.