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International audience ; Abstract Plant pest invasions cost billions of Euros each year in Europe. Prediction of likely places of pest introduction could greatly help focus efforts on prevention and control and thus reduce societal costs of pest invasions. Here, we test whether generic data-driven risk maps of pest introduction, valid for multiple species and produced by machine learning methods, could supplement the costly species-specific risk analyses currently conducted by governmental agencies. An elastic-net algorithm was trained on a dataset covering 243 invasive species to map risk of new introductions in Europe as a function of climate, soils, water, and anthropogenic factors. Results revealed that the BeNeLux states, Northern Italy, the Northern Balkans, and the United Kingdom, and areas around container ports such as Antwerp, London, Rijeka, and Saint Petersburg were at higher risk of introductions. Our analysis shows that machine learning can produce hotspot maps for pest introductions with a high predictive accuracy, but that systematically collected data on species' presences and absences are required to further validate and improve these maps.

International audience ; Abstract Plant pest invasions cost billions of Euros each year in Europe. Prediction of likely places of pest introduction could greatly help focus efforts on prevention and control and thus reduce societal costs of pest invasions. Here, we test whether generic data-driven risk maps of pest introduction, valid for multiple species and produced by machine learning methods, could supplement the costly species-specific risk analyses currently conducted by governmental agencies. An elastic-net algorithm was trained on a dataset covering 243 invasive species to map risk of new introductions in Europe as a function of climate, soils, water, and anthropogenic factors. Results revealed that the BeNeLux states, Northern Italy, the Northern Balkans, and the United Kingdom, and areas around container ports such as Antwerp, London, Rijeka, and Saint Petersburg were at higher risk of introductions. Our analysis shows that machine learning can produce hotspot maps for pest introductions with a high predictive accuracy, but that systematically collected data on species' presences and absences are required to further validate and improve these maps.

International audience ; Abstract Plant pest invasions cost billions of Euros each year in Europe. Prediction of likely places of pest introduction could greatly help focus efforts on prevention and control and thus reduce societal costs of pest invasions. Here, we test whether generic data-driven risk maps of pest introduction, valid for multiple species and produced by machine learning methods, could supplement the costly species-specific risk analyses currently conducted by governmental agencies. An elastic-net algorithm was trained on a dataset covering 243 invasive species to map risk of new introductions in Europe as a function of climate, soils, water, and anthropogenic factors. Results revealed that the BeNeLux states, Northern Italy, the Northern Balkans, and the United Kingdom, and areas around container ports such as Antwerp, London, Rijeka, and Saint Petersburg were at higher risk of introductions. Our analysis shows that machine learning can produce hotspot maps for pest introductions with a high predictive accuracy, but that systematically collected data on species' presences and absences are required to further validate and improve these maps.

Various integrated impact assessment (IIA) frameworks are used by governments and intragovernmental agencies to aid in planning and decision making for the management of natural disasters, such as floods or earthquakes, and planned interventions, such as mining operations or housing development. IIA considers economic, environmental and social impacts. IIA takes a hierarchical approach in which the impacts are decomposed in a stepwise manner down to a point at which they are concrete enough to make an assessment using data, expert judgement or models. The completed partial assessment results are combined using decision rules to achieve overarching assessments. IIA has similar objectives as pest risk analyses made by plant health authorities; however, the principles and approaches of IIA have not been widely applied in plant health. An inherent difficulty in the integrated approach is the assessment of non-monetary societal impacts. The classical approach to pest risk analysis follows the steps of entry, estab lishment, spread and impact, representing the mechanistic pathway towards harm. This approach may not necessarily provide the most effective way to assess the different kinds of impacts that need consideration, such as impacts on plant health, ecosystem functioning, and communities that depend for their livelihoods on agricultural plant production or ecosystem services. The question is what PRA can learn from the practice of IIA. As part of the Horizon 2020 POnTE Project, we will explore options to use IIA to support plant health authorities developing measures for prevention and control that deliver maximum total benefit to society. Applications will focus on Xylella fastidiosa, Candidatus Liberibacter solanacearum, Phytophthora spp. and Hymenoscyphus fraxineus.

A new method for pest risk assessment and the identification and evaluation of risk-reducing options is currently under development by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) Plant Health Panel. The draft method has been tested on pests of concern to the European Union (EU). The method is adaptable and can focus either on all the steps and sub-steps of the assessment process or on specific parts if necessary. It is based on assessing changes in pest population abundance as the major driver of the impact on cultivated plants and on the environment. Like other pest risk assessment systems the method asks questions about the likelihood and magnitude of factors that contribute to risk. Responses can be based on data or expert judgment. Crucially, the approach is quantitative, and it captures uncertainty through the provision by risk assessors of quantile estimates of the probability distributions for the assessed variables and parameters. The assessment is based on comparisons between different scenarios, and the method integrates risk-reducing options where they apply to a scenario, for example current regulation against a scenario where risk-reducing options are not applied. A strategy has been developed to communicate the results of the risk assessment in a clear, comparable and transparent way, with the aim of providing the requestor of the risk assessment with a useful answer to the question(s) posed to the EFSA Plant Health Panel. The method has been applied to four case studies, two fungi, Ceratocystis platani and Cryphonectria parasitica, the nematode Ditylenchus destructor and the Grapevine flavescence dorée phytoplasma. Selected results from these case studies illustrate the types of output that the method can deliver. ; SCOPUS: ar.j ; info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Pest control by natural enemies (natural pest control) is an important regulating ecosystem service with significant implications for the sustainability of agro-ecosystems. The presence of semi-natural habitats and landscape heterogeneity are key determinants of the delivery of this service. However, to date, synthetic and consistent indicators at large scales are lacking. We developed a pan-European, spatially-explicit model to map and assess the landscape potential to sustain natural pest control. The model considers landscape composition in terms of semi-natural habitats types, abundance, spatial configuration and distance from the focal field. It combines recent high-resolution geospatial layers with empirical results from extensive field surveys measuring the specific contribution of different semi-natural habitats to support insects flying enemies providing natural pest control. The resulting maps facilitate a comparison of the relative biological control potential of different areas and show that currently a large proportion of high-productive agricultural areas in Europe has low potential. The obtained indicator can inform the formulation of policies and planning strategies aimed at increasing biodiversity and ecosystem services and can be used to assess trade-offs between different services. Potential fields of application include the Common Agricultural Policy and the EU Biodiversity Strategy, in particular the implementation of Green Infrastructure.

Pest control by natural enemies (natural pest control) is an important regulating ecosystem service with significant implications for the sustainability of agro-ecosystems. The presence of semi-natural habitats and landscape heterogeneity are key determinants of the delivery of this service. However, to date, synthetic and consistent indicators at large scales are lacking. We developed a pan-European, spatially-explicit model to map and assess the landscape potential to sustain natural pest control. The model considers landscape composition in terms of semi-natural habitats types, abundance, spatial configuration and distance from the focal field. It combines recent high-resolution geospatial layers with empirical results from extensive field surveys measuring the specific contribution of different semi-natural habitats to support insects flying enemies providing natural pest control. The resulting maps facilitate a comparison of the relative biological control potential of different areas and show that currently a large proportion of high-productive agricultural areas in Europe has low potential. The obtained indicator can inform the formulation of policies and planning strategies aimed at increasing biodiversity and ecosystem services and can be used to assess trade-offs between different services. Potential fields of application include the Common Agricultural Policy and the EU Biodiversity Strategy, in particular the implementation of Green Infrastructure.

The Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Circulifer tenellus (Ct) and C. haematoceps (Ch) (Hemiptera, Cicadellidae) for the European Union (EU) territory. They are well‐defined insect species that can be identified on the basis of external morphology and male genitalia. Ch and Ct are considered to originate from the Old World; Ct is also present in North America and the Caribbean. In the EU, Ch is reported in 11 Member States, mostly in southern or central Europe, and Ct is reported in Spain, France, Italy and Greece. Neither species is harmful by itself, but they are vectors of Spiroplasma citri, the causal agent of, for example, citrus stubborn disease. The major impact of Ct in North America results from the transmission of Beet curly top virus to sugarbeet. Ct also transmits 'Candidatus Phytoplasma trifolii' and Ch transmits 'Ca P. asteris'. There is no transovarial transmission of the pathogens. Ch and Ct are regulated harmful organisms in the EU and listed in Annex II, Part A, Section II, of Council Directive 2000/29/EC together with Spiroplasma citri and with respect to plants of Citrus Fortunella Poncirus and their hybrids, other than fruit and seeds, despite the fact that Ct and Ch have a larger host range. Ch and Ct are likely to be disseminated by plants for planting (the eggs are laid into the leaf veins and petioles), they have also been observed to hitch‐hike on terrestrial vehicles, and Ct is known for its very high flight capacity. Both species have many hosts, in particular in the Chenopodiaceae, Brassicaceae and Asteraceae. Ecological conditions in the risk assessment area are suitable for the establishment and spread of S. citri, at least where citrus is currently grown.

The Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of the Lewis spider mite, Eotetranychus lewisi, for the European Union (EU). The Lewis spider mite is a well-defined and distinguishable pest species that has been reported from a wide range of hosts, including cultivated species. Its distribution in the EU territory is restricted to (i) Madeira in Portugal; and to (ii) Poland where few occurrences were reported in glasshouses only. The pest is listed in Annex IIAI of Council Directive 2000/29/EC. A potential pathway of introduction and spread is plants traded from outside Europe and between Member States. The Lewis spider mite has the potential to establish in most part of the EU territory based on climate similarities with the distribution area outside the EU and the widespread availability of hosts present both in open fields and in protected cultivations. With regards to the potential consequences, one study is providing quantitative data on impact showing that the pest can reduce yield and affect quality of peaches and poinsettias, and only few studies describe the general impact of the pest on cultivated hosts. Although chemical treatments are reported to be effective in controlling the Lewis spider mite, it is mentioned as a growing concern for peaches, strawberries, raspberries and vines in the Americas. Overall, Eotetranychus lewisi meets the pest categorisation criteria defined in the International Standards for Phytosanitary Measures No 11 for a quarantine pest and in No 21 for a regulated non-quarantine pest.

The Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Strawberry vein banding virus (SVBV) for the European Union (EU) territory. SVBV is a well-defined virus species of the genus Caulimovirus for which the entire genome sequence is known and molecular detection assays are available. SVBV is transmitted by vegetative multiplication of infected hosts and through the activity of aphid vectors, the most efficient being Chaetosiphon spp. The virus is reported from all continents and is present in three EU Member States: the Czech Republic, Italy and Slovakia. The host range of SVBV is restricted to cultivated and wild strawberries. It is listed in Annex IAI of Directive 2000/29/EC. SVBV is not expected to be affected by ecoclimatic conditions wherever its hosts are present and has the potential to establish in large parts of the EU territory, and to subsequently spread through the action of its Chaetosiphon fragaefolii vector, which is present in many Member States. SVBV does not cause severe symptoms, and modern cultivars are mostly symptomless if infected with SVBV alone. SVBV can, however, contribute to more severe symptoms when it occurs in mixed infections with other strawberry viruses. Despite this, SVBV is considered a minor problem in strawberry production as a consequence of modern practices including the systematic use of certified planting materials and the use of short crop cycles, which have greatly reduced the impact of strawberry viruses. Overall, SVBV does not have the potential to be a quarantine pest as, given current agricultural practices, it does not fulfil the pest categorisation criteria defined in the International Standards for Phytosanitary Measures No 11 of having a severe impact. However, SVBV has the potential to be a regulated non-quarantine pest because it fulfils all pest categorisation criteria defined in the International Standards for Phytosanitary Measures No 21.

The Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Strawberry latent C virus (SLCV) for the European Union (EU) territory. SLCV is defined only by symptoms in strawberry indicators. It has not been characterised, is not recognised as a valid species, and reliable detection assays are unavailable. SLCV is transmitted by vegetative multiplication of infected hosts and by Chaetosiphon aphid vectors. SLCV has been reported only from USA, Canada and Japan. It is listed in Annex IAI of Directive 2000/29/EC. It infects cultivated and wild strawberries, and there is no other information on its host range. SLCV is not expected to be affected by ecoclimatic conditions wherever its hosts are present, and has the potential to establish in large parts of the EU territory. SLCV can spread through the action of its widely distributed C. fragaefolii vector and through the movement of strawberry plants for planting. However, the existence of efficient and widely adopted certification systems for strawberry constitutes a very strong limitation to SLCV spread. Although latent in many strawberry varieties, SLCV can cause significant damage, in particular when in co-infection with other strawberry viruses. However, the importance and impact of SLCV have both essentially disappeared in North America, most probably as a result of modern practices including the systematic use of certified planting materials and the use of short crop cycles. Such practices are also widely used in the EU and have broadly reduced the impact of strawberry viruses. Overall, SLCV does not have the potential to be a quarantine pest or a regulated non-quarantine pest, because it does not fulfil the following pest categorisation criteria of the International Standards for Phytosanitary Measures (ISPM) No 11/21: clear identity of the pest (ISPM 11/21), presence in the PRA area (ISPM 21) and having a severe impact (ISPM 11).

The Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Elm phloem necrosis mycoplasma, now renamed Candidatus Phytoplasma ulmi (CPu), for the European Union (EU) territory. CPu is a well-defined phytoplasma species of the genus Candidatus Phytoplasma, for which molecular detection assays are available. CPu is transmitted by grafting and vegetative propagation material as well as by insect vectors. CPu is reported from North America and is present in at least four EU Member States: the Czech Republic, France, Germany and Italy. CPu distribution in Europe is suspected to be underestimated, with high uncertainty since no systematic surveys are carried out. CPu has a host range restricted to Ulmaceae species, and especially to the genus Ulmus, with some variations in susceptibility to the disease. It is listed in Annex IAI of Directive 2000/29/EC. CPu is not expected to be affected by EU ecoclimatic conditions wherever its hosts are present and has the potential to establish largely within the EU territory. Two insect vectors, Macropsis glandacea and Philaenus spumarius, are widely distributed in Europe. The uncertainty about other potential vector species, in which the phytoplasma has been detected, is considered as high. There is a lack of data to fully assess the potential consequences of the disease, with regards to the susceptibility of European elm species and virulence of European CPu strains. Data are not sufficient to reach a conclusion on pest categorisation of CPu and a full risk assessment can be conducted but is unlikely to bring any additional value unless the key additional data gaps on distribution, insect vectors, elm species susceptibility and potential consequences of the pest are filled.