Suchergebnisse

On the Brink of Deglobalization addresses the breakdown of international trade and capital flows in 2008/09 and challenges the mainstream narrative for the world trade collapse.Detailed chapters on international finance, fragmentation of production, protectionism and earlier episodes of collapsing trade reveal data that contradicts conventional explanations and demonstrates that the trade collapse was driven by the shock of (perceived) trade uncertainty. Peter van Bergeijk discusses why trade barriers and import substitution are seen as solutions during depressions while presenting empirical evidence demonstrating the risks of such policies. This book provides a broad, historical and statistical analysis relevant to understanding the recent world trade collapse.

Abstract
The trade developments of the first quarter of the 21st century prompt speculation on how future generations will perceive them. Will they interpret this era as one where deglobalization took root and flourished, marked by a slowdown in world trade? Or will they view it as a mere pause in globalization's upward trajectory? The literature explores these possibilities, noting the impact of events like the Financial Crisis, COVID-19 lockdowns and the Ukraine and Gaza wars on world trade. There is disagreement over whether globalization is receding or evolving. Three scenarios offer varied perspectives, from a bleak outlook of disintegrating international relations to a more optimistic view where deglobalization is seen as a temporary setback. These scenarios highlight the complexity and uncertainty surrounding (de)globalization, emphasizing the need for interdisciplinary analysis and a nuanced understanding of global trends.

ABSTRACTThis paper investigates measurement errors in generally accepted figures on international transactions that are supplied by national statistical offices to the IMF and the OECD. Implicit minimal measurement errors in bilateral trade data for Germany and the Netherlands appear to be about 1.5–3 per cent. An investigation of foreign direct investment data for 20 OECD countries in the period 1950–89 shows that their accuracy has improved little if at all since the 1970s: in 15–25 per cent of the cases, implied minimal measurement errors are in excess of 10 per cent.