Suchergebnisse

While the pandemic and recovery unfold in real time, this article investigates some of the major themes on preparations for the next pandemic. Humanity cannot rely on modern medicine to beat the next 'disease X' and the world cannot afford the extortionate health and economic policy interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic again. From the COVID-19 pandemic we learned that the international economic organizations suffered from disaster myopia and that the self-image of the advanced economies is distorted. It also has become apparent that 'beggar-thy-neighbor' health care was generally practiced while global health care should have been the norm. A discussion on the related issues of rationing, triage and scarcity of health care during a pandemic is urgently needed. All in all, a major global investment project is necessary to reduce the vulnerability to and impact of pandemics. As inequalities to a large extent determine pandemic vulnerability and adjustment of SDGs is necessary.

This working paper studies the case of the sanctions against the Russian war with the Ukraine in 2022 against the background of four major and well-documented historical sanction episodes: (a) the anti-Apartheid sanctions of the 1980s, (b) the sanctions against the Iraqi occupation of Kuwait in 1990, (c) the sanctions against Iranian nuclear capabilities and (d) the US and EU sanctions against the Russian annexation of the Crimea. Two cases (South-Africa and Iran) have a comparatively low ex ante probability of success based on pre-sanction proportional trade linkage and regime type (the autocracy score). The key to understanding their success is in the banking channel (debt-crisis and SWIFT sanctions) and the behaviour of the private sector (divestment and over-compliance). The failure of the sanctions against Iraq underscores the importance of regime type and the need for a viable exit strategy and shows that some decision-makers cannot be influenced with economic hardship. The 2014 sanctions against Russia illustrate the comparative vulnerability of the European democracies and their weakness in organizing comprehensive sanctions that bite. Given the increased Russian resilience, the increasingly autocratic nature of President Putin's government, the credibility of his 2014 tit-for-tat strategy and the failure of European democracies to implement appropriate strong and broad-based measures smart and targeted sanctions are unlikely to influence the Kremlin's calculus. The European Union could only influence that calculus by restoring its reputation as a credible applicant of strong sanctions, including an embargo on capital goods and a boycott of Russian energy.

This paper provides a comparative economic history perspective on two significant periods of deglobalization: the Great Depression in the 1930s and the period following the Financial Crisis of 2008/9. The paper discusses differences and similarities and provides empirical results regarding the correlates of deglobalization, including the political system (institutions), level of development (GDP per capita) and the share of manufacturing.

This paper analyses drivers of imports during the major world trade collapses of the Great Depression (1930s; 34 countries) and the Great Recession (1930s; 173 countries). The analysis deals with the first year of these episodes and develops a small empirical model that shows a significant impact of the development of GDP, the share of manufacturing goods in total imports and the political system. The analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity with respect to regional importance of these drivers.

On the Brink of Deglobalization addresses the breakdown of international trade and capital flows in 2008/09 and challenges the mainstream narrative for the world trade collapse.Detailed chapters on international finance, fragmentation of production, protectionism and earlier episodes of collapsing trade reveal data that contradicts conventional explanations and demonstrates that the trade collapse was driven by the shock of (perceived) trade uncertainty. Peter van Bergeijk discusses why trade barriers and import substitution are seen as solutions during depressions while presenting empirical evidence demonstrating the risks of such policies. This book provides a broad, historical and statistical analysis relevant to understanding the recent world trade collapse.

The paper employs a multimethod approach to investigate shifts from globalization to deglobalization, presenting a novel economic theory grounded in recent data. It identifies two mechanisms driving structural deglobalization: escalating costs and diminishing benefits at the national level, hindering redistribution efforts and the challenge to sustain global public goods due to waning economic hegemony. The analysis integrates perspectives from international economics, history, hegemonic stability theory and world system theory through narrative review, descriptive statistics and econometric analyses. The multimethod examination emphasizes the complexities of deglobalization, involving international relations, history and economics. Democracy and trade composition emerge as significant factors influencing deglobalization, with varying impacts across historical contexts. Despite this, the resilience of world trade to deglobalization appears to have increased over time. The study underscores the necessity of blending methodologies from different disciplines for a comprehensive understanding of deglobalization and proposes avenues for further research in this complex, multidimensional phenomenon.

While the pandemic and recovery unfold in real time, this article investigates some of the major themes on preparations for the next pandemic. Humanity cannot rely on modern medicine to beat the next 'disease X' and the world cannot afford the extortionate health and economic policy interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic again. From the COVID-19 pandemic we learned that the international economic organizations suffered from disaster myopia and that the self-image of the advanced economies is distorted. It also has become apparent that 'beggar-thy-neighbor' health care was generally practiced while global health care should have been the norm. A discussion on the related issues of rationing, triage and scarcity of health care during a pandemic is urgently needed. All in all, a major global investment project is necessary to reduce the vulnerability to and impact of pandemics. As inequalities to a large extent determine pandemic vulnerability and adjustment of SDGs is necessary.