Suchergebnisse

Since 2012/13, rice exports to China (which may have reached two million tons in 2015/16) boosted total demand for Myanmar's rice and rice prices. In mid-2016, however, China stopped rice imports through the main land entry point, putting substantial downward pressure on prices. Analysis presented in this paper, based on econometric estimates of consumption parameters and a simple model of Myanmar's rice supply and demand, suggests that market prices would fall by 26 to 43 percent or more (in real terms) in the absence of increased exports to the world market and/or government domestic procurement. Such a decline in prices could have seriously harmed Myanmar's rice producers, including many poor farmers with marketable surpluses. Model simulations suggest that government procurement of about one million tons would limit the estimated price decline to only 17 to 30 percent. Further refinements in the simulations are needed to take account for the seasonal nature of paddy production in Myanmar, possible price-responsiveness of export demand and the effects of changes in paddy incomes on farmer demand for rice. Medium-term analysis of procurement, storage and future sales is needed to analyze fiscal costs under various scenarios, as well, covering alternative shocks to production, export demand and world prices. Nonetheless, the main results are clear: without substantial market interventions on the order of one million tons (milled rice equivalent), the paddy (rice) price could fall dramatically when production increases or export demand declines. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; CRP2; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; ReSAKSS Asia ; DSGD; PIM ; CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)

As a result of recent political reforms, Myanmar has the opportunity to enact major policy changes to reinvigorate its agriculture sector. In this context, Myanmar's rubber sector has the potential to become an even greater source of export earnings and rural household incomes, but there are major challenges related to low rubber productivity and poor rubber quality. Using data from the Mon State Rural Household Survey (MSRHS) conducted from May to June 2015, as well as qualitative data collected from rubber producer focus groups and other interviews with rubber producers, traders, and processors, this paper describes the cost structure of rubber production in Mon State. We then estimate smallholder production costs and the profitability of smallholder rubber production under various alternative yield and price scenarios. The results suggest that if the weaknesses hindering the profitability of the rubber sector are not addressed, the rubber sector will likely stagnate. Moreover, in the absence of a major increase in world prices (substantially above the 2000–2016 average), new rubber investments will not be profitable without major improvements in yield and quality. Further, increasing only yields or only quality, or only improving the institutional environment, will not result in positive returns on investment for smallholders; reforms are needed in all three areas. If these weaknesses are addressed, however, Myanmar's new investments will be profitable and Myanmar could become an important rubber producer and exporter on the world stage. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; Open Access; D Transforming Agriculture; CRP2 ; DSGD; PIM ; CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)

South Sudan faces serious problems of food insecurity due to low per capita levels of domestic food production, periodic droughts, widespread poverty, political unrest, and since late 2013, renewed armed conflict. Agricultural productivity is low, and the country is highly dependent on private-sector imports of cereals (maize, sorghum, wheat, and rice) from Uganda to supply domestic markets. National household survey data indicate substantial diversity in consumption of cereals across households, and our econometric estimates suggest highly price- and income-inelastic demand for the two major cereals, sorghum and maize. Drawing on a review of international experience and the constraints facing South Sudan, we conclude that a national food security reserve (NFSR) system with a small national food security stock is feasible for South Sudan. Cereal stocks would be kept mainly for targeted safety nets and emergency distribution, and market interventions would be limited in scope, in keeping with a long-run goal of market development. Nonetheless, even with a functioning NFSR, promotion of private-sector domestic and import trade will remain crucial for ensuring adequate supplies of grain and food security ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; E Building Resilience; C Improving markets and trade; CRP2; Strategic Food Reserve ; DSGD; MTID; PIM ; CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)

The purpose of this report is to provide information and analysis to government, civil society, and donors interested in improving the well-being of the rural population of Mon State, Myanmar. Specifically, the report analyzes the different sources of income for rural households, as well as their socioeconomic characteristics, with a view to helping identify constraints on growth and potential pathways to improving incomes. The overall picture that emerges is one of a struggling agricultural sector and an economy heavily dependent on services for local employment and on international migration for income. The analysis is based on a sample of 1,632 rural households, designed to be representative of rural households in Mon State as a whole. The survey included a household questionnaire and a community survey, and gathered information on demographics, all economic aspects of the household, and access to infrastructure and services at the community level. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; C Improving markets and trade; D Transforming Agriculture; Feed the Future Innovation Laboratory for Food Security Policy (FSP) ; DSGD

The purpose of this report is to provide information and analysis to government, civil society, and donors interested in improving the well-being of the rural population of Mon State. Specifically, the report analyzes the different sources of income for rural households, as well as their socioeconomic characteristics, with a view to identifying potential pathways to improving incomes, especially for poor households, and stimulating inclusive rural growth. The overall picture that emerges is one of an economy heavily dependent on services for local employment and on international migration for income. Like a two-legged stool, such an economy is potentially unstable in the face of external shocks. Diversification of the Mon State economy, including diversification and increased productivity within the agricultural sector, will lessen the relative dependence on external migration remittances and result in more resilient growth in the future. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI2; Feed the Future Innovation Laboratory for Food Security Policy (FSP) ; DSGD