Suchergebnisse

In March 2015, the World Health Organization (WHO) published revised guidelines on sugar intake that call on national governments to institute policies to reduce sugar intake and increase the scope for regulation of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). In face of the growing threat of regulatory action on SSBs, transnational beverage companies are responding in multiple ways, including investing in the formulation and sales of artificially sweetened beverages (ASBs), promoted as healthier alternatives to SSBs. The absence of consistent evidence to support the role of ASBs in preventing weight gain and the lack of studies on other long-term effects on health strengthen the position that ASBs should not be promoted as part of a healthy diet. The promotion of ASBs must be discussed in a broader context of the additional potential impacts on health and the environment. In addition, a more robust evidence base, free of conflicts of interest, is needed.

Objective: In 2020, we developed a public health decision‐support model for mitigating the spread of SARS‐CoV‐2 infections in Australia and New Zealand. Having demonstrated its capacity to describe disease progression patterns during both countries' first waves of infections, we describe its utilisation in Victoria in underpinning the State Government's then 'RoadMap to Reopening'. Methods: Key aspects of population demographics, disease, spatial and behavioural dynamics, as well as the mechanism, timing, and effect of non‐pharmaceutical public health policies responses on the transmission of SARS‐CoV‐2 in both countries were represented in an agent‐based model. We considered scenarios related to the imposition and removal of non‐pharmaceutical interventions on the estimated progression of SARS‐CoV‐2 infections. Results: Wave 1 results suggested elimination of community transmission of SARS‐CoV‐2 was possible in both countries given sustained public adherence to social restrictions beyond 60 days' duration. However, under scenarios of decaying adherence to restrictions, a second wave of infections (Wave 2) was predicted in Australia. In Victoria's second wave, we estimated in early September 2020 that a rolling 14‐day average of <5 new cases per day was achievable on or around 26 October. Victoria recorded a 14‐day rolling average of 4.6 cases per day on 25 October. Conclusions: Elimination of SARS‐CoV‐2 transmission represented in faithfully constructed agent‐based models can be replicated in the real world. Implications for public health: Agent‐based public health policy models can be helpful to support decision‐making in novel and complex unfolding public health crises.