Suchergebnisse

Using high-quality nation-wide social security data combined with machine learning tools, we develop predictive models of income support receipt intensities for any payment enrolee in the Australian social security system between 2014 and 2018. We show that off-the-shelf machine learning algorithms can significantly improve predictive accuracy compared to simpler heuristic models or early warning systems currently in use. Specifically, the former predicts the proportion of time individuals are on income support in the subsequent four years with greater accuracy, by a magnitude of at least 22% (14 percentage points increase in the R2), compared to the latter. This gain can be achieved at no extra cost to practitioners since the algorithms use administrative data currently available to caseworkers. Consequently, our machine learning algorithms can improve the detection of long-term income support recipients, which can potentially provide governments with large savings in accrued welfare costs.

AbstractThis article examines how a reduction in the financial resources available to lone parents affects repartnering. We exploit an Australian natural experiment that reduced the financial resources available to a subset of separating parents. Using biweekly administrative data capturing separations occurring among low- and middle- income couples, we show that the policy reform significantly increased the speed of repartnering for affected separating mothers. The results demonstrate that one way that lone mothers respond to a reduction in financial resources available at the time of relationship breakdown is by repartnering more quickly.