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Working paper
Regional Characteristics and Spatial Correlation of Haze Pollution: Interpretative System Analysis in Cities of Fenwei Plain in China
In: STOTEN-D-22-27572
SSRN
Real-Time Uncertainty Estimation of Stripe Center Extraction Results Using Adaptive BP Neural Network
In: MEAS-D-22-00149
SSRN
Real time analysis of lead-containing atmospheric particles in Guangzhou during wintertime using single particle aerosol mass spectrometry
In: Ecotoxicology and environmental safety: EES ; official journal of the International Society of Ecotoxicology and Environmental safety, Band 168, S. 53-63
ISSN: 1090-2414
Global age-structured spatial modeling for emerging infectious diseases like COVID-19
In: PNAS nexus, Band 2, Heft 5
ISSN: 2752-6542
Abstract
Modeling the global dynamics of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) like COVID-19 can provide important guidance in the preparation and mitigation of pandemic threats. While age-structured transmission models are widely used to simulate the evolution of EIDs, most of these studies focus on the analysis of specific countries and fail to characterize the spatial spread of EIDs across the world. Here, we developed a global pandemic simulator that integrates age-structured disease transmission models across 3,157 cities and explored its usage under several scenarios. We found that without mitigations, EIDs like COVID-19 are highly likely to cause profound global impacts. For pandemics seeded in most cities, the impacts are equally severe by the end of the first year. The result highlights the urgent need for strengthening global infectious disease monitoring capacity to provide early warnings of future outbreaks. Additionally, we found that the global mitigation efforts could be easily hampered if developed countries or countries near the seed origin take no control. The result indicates that successful pandemic mitigations require collective efforts across countries. The role of developed countries is vitally important as their passive responses may significantly impact other countries.