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This study is motivated by the stylized fact that the asymmetry in dependence usually exists in returns of financial data series. Owing to political and monetary reasons, this phenomenon may be present in daily changes of exchange rates. In this paper, we study the relationships between five currencies in Asia around the period of Asian Financial Crisis in 1997, including the Singapore Dollar, Japanese Yen, South Korea Won, Thailand Baht and Indonesia Rupiah. We employ various time-varying copula models to examine the possible structural breaks. The results indicate significant changes at the dependence level, tail behavior and asymmetry structures between returns of all permuted pairs from the five currencies before and after the crisis. Other methods for identifying structure changes are also explored to compare and contrast the findings using the copular models. The results show that the copular approach seems to have more explanatory power than the existing ones in identifying structure breaks.

Most existing studies on forecasting exchange rates focus on predicting next-period returns. In contrast, this study takes the novel approach of forecasting and trading the longer-term trends (macro-cycles) of exchange rates. It proposes a unique hybrid forecast model consisting of linear regression, multilayer neural network, and combination models embedded with technical trading rules and economic fundamentals to predict the macro-cycles of the selected currencies and investigate the predicative power and market timing ability of the model. The results confirm that the combination model has a significant predictive power and market timing ability, and outperforms the benchmark models in terms of returns. The finding that the government bond yield differentials and CPI differentials are the important factors in exchange rate forecasts further implies that interest rate parity and PPP have strong influence on foreign exchange market participants.

AbstractThis article presents a simple model that reveals the reverse relation of the ratio of current account balance to inequality in income and consumption. Consumption smoothing schemes have been aggregated, among which the linchpin is a policy intervention that mitigates the worsening consumption inequality problem. However, in the long run, short‐sighted policies could have a corresponding impact on current accounts.

Administrative factors permeate the Chinese financial market. This study provides an insight into the emerging government-dominated IPO market. Using up-to-date data from 520 listed firms and 140 rejected IPO applicants in the Chinese stock market over 2006 to 2012, this study, based on prior analytical framework (Bhattacharya et al., 2010; Hearn, 2013), includes some IPO-related administrative factors into its multivariate regression model. It aims to examine, to some degree, these determinants affect the Chinese IPO examination mechanism. It suggests that the IPO probability is determined by selected administrative factors that are ultimately decided by the authorities, once the IPO applicants satisfy the minimum financial requirements. Those applicants with strong government background are more likely to pass the IPO examination.

This paper evaluates the effects of economic growth and democracy on human development using panel data over 170 countries for the period 1980-2010. Our results show that democracy enhances human development in any level of economic development. However, economic growth increases human development only in developing countries. The interaction effect between economic growth and democracy shows that democracy increase human development in developing countries where growth level is low.

AbstractOver the past few decades there have been extensive empirical and theoretical studies of the determination of intra‐industry trade (IIT), but mostly for the industrialized countries. This paper aims to assess the trends and pattern of intra‐industry trade and structural adjustment in China's manufacturing sector associated with its trade liberalization using data spanning from 1990 to 2000. In particular, we distinguish intra‐industry trade as either horizontally or vertically differentiated, and examine how the various country‐specific factors affect the intensity of China's horizontally and vertically differentiated intra‐industry trade with its major trading partners, and how trade liberalization changes the pattern of China's IIT and integration with the East Asian region. These issues have important policy implications for product differentiation strategy and labour adjustment. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.