Suchergebnisse

PurposeFirms engaged in international business necessarily make predictions about the business environments in which they operate or seek to enter, on the basis of which they make a number of strategic decisions. The purpose of this paper is to consider the difficulties there are in making accurate predictions and how the process might be improved.Design/methodology/approachThe paper examines predictions made in 2007 by 'China experts' about what the Chinese business environment would look like in 2017. Their predictions were accurate in respect of around two-thirds of the issues they were asked to consider. This paper focuses on the one-third of issues about which they were wide of the mark and examine the likely reasons.FindingsThe predictions of the 2007 study were accurate in respect of around two-thirds of the issues the China experts on the Delphi panel were asked to consider. The reason that they were wide of the mark on about one-third of issues could be attributed to two main factors: the 2008/2009 Global Financial Crisis and the appointment in 2013 of Xi Jinping as the President of China. These events precipitated changes in direction in the Chinese business environment that had not been (and could not have been) anticipated by the Delphi panel.Originality/valueVery few Delphi studies have been subject to a follow-up examination of the accuracy of their predictions. This paper contributes a discussion the various methodologies that firms can use to improve their forecasts of international business environments.

The possession of key international technical standards in some technology-based sectors can provide considerable advantages for firms wishing to internationalize rapidly and early. Avaro, a start-up Korean company, developed and owned a critical standard in the emerging international mobile payments industry. The company also enjoyed many of the other conditions conducive to successful internationalization, such as supportive international networks, encouraging government policy, attractive international market and financing opportunities and a munificent national technological and business home base. Yet the company's efforts at rapid and early internationalization failed. A multiplicity of factors explains how, despite its advantages, the company did not internationalize successfully. The paper highlights the importance of specific national and cultural factors constraining rapid and early internationalization. It argues that the nascent research field of international entrepreneurship has fully to account for the particular characteristics of technology products and markets, national business systems, and enduring cultural influences as it develops theoretical understanding of, and guides management practices in, emerging global technology markets.

The possession of key international technical standards in some technology-based sectors can provide considerable advantages for firms wishing to internationalize rapidly and early. Avaro, a start-up Korean company, developed and owned a critical standard in the emerging international mobile payments industry. The company also enjoyed many of the other conditions conducive to successful internationalization, such as supportive international networks, encouraging government policy, attractive international market and financing opportunities and a munificent national technological and business home base. Yet the company's efforts at rapid and early internationalization failed. A multiplicity of factors explains how, despite its advantages, the company did not internationalize successfully. The paper highlights the importance of specific national and cultural factors constraining rapid and early internationalization. It argues that the nascent research field of international entrepreneurship has fully to account for the particular characteristics of technology products and markets, national business systems, and enduring cultural influences as it develops theoretical understanding of, and guides management practices in, emerging global technology markets.

This article addresses some fundamental methodological issues confronting management researchers undertaking research in China. Among other things, it considers the following: cultural factors that might impact on what is a researchable question; sampling issues; difficulties in developing valid research instruments; problems pertaining to data collection; and the challenges of data interpretation. While the issues are by no means unique to China, there are a number of matters that require special attention in the Chinese context. Failure to consider such methodological problems might potentially call into question the findings of otherwise important management studies. Specific recommendations are provided as to how these challenges can be successfully dealt with.