Suchergebnisse

Background: China is the world's largest producer and consumer of cigarettes. Since 2010, the Chinese government has implemented many policies to combat the tobacco epidemic, yet little is known about their overall impacts. This study aims to investigate the trends in smoking prevalence and intensity between 2010 and 2018. Methods: We use five waves of data from China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), a nationally representative survey, to examine the trends in smoking prevalence and intensity. We use the chi-square test and t-test to examine differences across waves. Binary logistic regressions and linear regressions are applied to examine the association between smoking behaviors and risk factors. Results: The current smoking prevalence dropped from 30.30% in 2010 (90% CI 29.47–31.31) to 28.69% (90% CI 27.69–29.69) in 2018. As for smoking intensity, the average daily cigarettes consumption decreased steadily from 16.96 cigarettes (90% CI 16.55–17.36) in 2010 to 15.12 cigarettes (90% CI 15.07–15.94) in 2018. Smoking risk factors for men included marriage status, education level, employment status, alcohol consumption, and physical activities. The smoking risk was higher for women with a lower education level, lower household income, unemployment status, and alcohol consumption behavior. Conclusions: Our study shows declined trends in both smoking prevalence and intensity between 2010 and 2018, suggesting some positive progress in tobacco control in China. Nonetheless, to achieve the goal of reducing smoking prevalence among people aged 15 and above to less than 20% by 2030, the Chinese government needs to take stronger anti-tobacco measures.

AbstractIn recent years, there appears to be a growing consensus among policymakers in both the East and the West, that the decades of global peace after the Cold War has now come to an end, and that the world is facing mounting security risks to the future of humanity. Among those challenges, the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict poses particularly significant risks to regional and global security, and is closely related to many other contemporary international crises involving European states and their allies, particularly the Russo-Ukrainian War, the nuclear proliferation in Europe, and the military disputes between the Iran-backed Houthis and EU forces. But why has the U.S.-Iran relationship deteriorated so dramatically over the past years, and what are the future risks its presents to the international community? While extensive scholarly works have been conducted to examine the ideological, historical, and geopolitical variables that fuel this observed escalating antagonism, no study to date has formal-modelled the complex interactions between Tehran and Washington into a two-level game. Utilizing an infinitely-repeated game theory approach, this research presents a comprehensive analytical framework that explains how interrelated political factors at both the international and the domestic level jointly shape the dynamic of this bilateral relationship. We contend that the domestic rally effect created by risk-oriented diplomacy, incompatible ideological stances and political values, the increasing polarization within U.S. Congress, and the mounting rivalry between Israel and the Iran-led Axis of Resistance convince policymakers from both sides that their utilities can be maximized in a non-cooperative game. Based on our models, it can be forecasted that there is hardly any chance Washington and Tehran will concede to the other's security demands in the foreseeable future. Thus, the risks of high-intensity conflict escalation due to miscalculation will continue to upsurge in the future.

Abstract. Rock bridges, also known as locking masses in landslides, affect the three-dimensional (3D) stability and deformation patterns of landslides. However, it is always difficult to simulate rock bridges with continuous grid models in 3D landslides due to their discontinuous deformations. Tizicao landslide, located in Maoxian County, southwest China, is a typical landslide with a super-large rock mass volume of about 1388.2 × 104 m3 and a locking segment. To explore a better rock bridge model used to simulate 3D stability and deformations of the Tizicao landslide, this study introduced three rock bridge models into the FLAC3D program, including the intact rock mass model (IRMM), the Jennings model (JM), and the contact surface model with high strength parameters (CSM-HSP). The CSM-HSP model was eventually used in the FLAC3D program to obtain the 3D deformation characteristics of the landslide. In addition, the two-dimensional (2D) stability of the Tizicao landslide was analyzed using the GeoStudio program. The simulation results indicate that the Tizicao landslide is generally stable under current conditions owing to the existence of the locking segment in its southern front. This inference is consistent with the field deformation and monitoring data. It was found that the general stability and local deformations of the landslide are influenced by the locking segment according to the comparison between the 2D and 3D stability. There was a linear relationship between the locking ratio and the factor of safety (Fos), which applied to the 2D stability analysis of the landslides with a locking segment each, while there existed an approximate quadratic parabola suitable for the 3D stability of the landslides. Finally, this study analyzed the laws of the 3D Fos varying with the locking ratio and strength parameters of the locking masses and the sliding surface. Furthermore, it explored the advantages and disadvantages of the three rock bridge models in the simulation of the 3D stability of landslides with a locking segment.

Abstract

Background
Racial disparities have historically existed regarding HIV care outcomes, including linkage to care. This study aims to explore the contribution of contextual features (e.g., socioeconomic and structural environmental factors) to the temporal change of county-level racial disparities in linkage to care.


Methods
This is a statewide population-based retrospective cohort study. The patient-level variables in the South Carolina HIV registry system were used to calculate the aggregated county-level linkage to care percentage. Then, we used four indices to measure racial disparities in the county-level percentage of timely linkage to care, i.e., the Black-White ratio, index of disparity (ID), weighted ID, and Gini coefficient. Linear mixed-effect models were used to estimate the relationship between a variety of contextual features and disparity indexes. The analysis included data from 2013 to 2020, with 2013 as the start year due to the availability of key contextual features and 2020 as the end year based on the most recent HIV registry data available at the time of this study.


Results
Across 46 counties in South Carolina, racial disparity in linkage to care persisted between 2013 and 2020, as indicated by all four indices. When using ID, weighted ID, and Gini as outcomes, counties with lower degrees of racial residential segregation and stronger family structure were at higher risk of racial disparities in linkage to care. For weighted ID only, counties with fewer primary care providers (β =  − 4.22; 95% CI, − 7.23 ~ 1.23) had larger racial disparities in linkage to care. Furthermore, for Gini only, counties with higher income inequalities (β = 0.01; 95% CI, 0.00 ~ 0.02) had larger racial disparities in linkage to care.


Conclusion
Efforts to address racial disparities should continue, and innovative approaches, specifically those that focus on social and structural factors, should be developed and implemented for populations that have poor HIV outcomes in the USA.