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Access to markets and social services is a major determinant of economic status and welfare. Measurement of access is therefore of great importance for policy analysis and planning of interventions. The objective of this article is to expose readers to a new way of measuring and visualising accessibility—a potential accessibility index—and its applications. This index gauges connectivity of a specific location to large cities while taking into account the population of the cities or other destinations of interest and the transportation facilities to reach them. The potential accessibility index is used in the empirical literature to test the hypotheses from the 'New Economic Geography' regarding the impact of market access on regional economic growth. Along with recent developments in poverty mapping, this index has also been used to investigate the spatial relationship between poverty and market access. Accessibility indexes are gradually gaining acknowledgement of policy makers and development practitioners as important monitoring instruments of development. For example, a rural access indicator is part of the results measurement system for the World Bank's International Development Association (IDA) programmes.

The electricity sector in Bangladesh has been facing unprecedented challenges, with severe capacity constraints and sector subsidies that quadrupled from 0.2 percent to 0.8 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) between 2010 and 2012, driving the government's fiscal deficit deeper. This policy note examines the poverty and distribution impact of one such reform-residential electricity tariff increases-along with their fiscal implications. A challenge of such adjustments is how to minimize their impact on the poor and vulnerable. Using household survey data, this report studies the distributional and fiscal implications of the residential tariff adjustments between March 2010 and March 2012 on to inform policy dialogue on the provision and targeting of electricity subsidies. Electricity subsidies are defined as the difference between the cost of supplying a unit of electricity and the tariff the end-user is charged for a given unit. Between 2010 and 2012, real cost of supply increased almost 20 percent. This policy note focuses on just one part of a much broader and complex system of connected energy policies. The policy implications of this analysis should only be considered in light of this broader context. In particular, this note does not study in detail the complex issues of generation and operational efficiency (in transmission and distribution). Second, this note does not study the political economy of tariff and subsidy reform. Tariff increases have been a source of social unrest, and planned increases could generate additional unrest. It will be important for the government to consider the political economy of further reform carefully. Moving forward, both of the new slab systems being discussed could relieve the fiscal burden of subsidies.

Pakistan's electricity sector is in crisis: extended periods of blackouts persisted in 2010 and circular debt is increasing. Despite investments in generation capacity, electricity demand continues to exceed supply, with blackouts as long as 8-10 hours per day in cities and sometimes double that in rural areas, and is widely recognized as a severe obstacle to growth and poverty reduction. In November 2010, the government was forced to rent the world's largest power ship to boost generation capacity. Meanwhile, the government of Pakistan's (GOP) inability to finance its commitment to fund subsidies, inefficiencies of the sector entities including low collections, delays in determination and notifications, and increased cost of fuel imports contribute to an increasingly severe circular debt problem. The analysis shows that given the current cost of electricity supply, the March 2011 tariff structure will improve the benefit incidence of electricity subsidies for residential users and reduce fiscal burden significantly in comparison to March 2008. For example, our estimations suggest the share of electricity subsidies for the richest 20 percent of the population declined from nearly 40 percent in March 2008 to 29 percent in March 2011. Despite this improvement, the richest households remain the greatest beneficiaries of the subsidies. Also, while the fiscal burden of electricity subsidies increased in nominal terms during the same time period, it declined by almost 60 percent in real terms. The results of the benefits incidence and scenario analyses have a number of policy implications for the fiscal burden of subsidies, and their ability to protect the poor and vulnerable efficiently.

This paper describes the design of a multi-stage stratified sample for the Bangladesh Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2016/17. This survey instrument will be used by the Government of Bangladesh to estimate reliable poverty and welfare statistics at three different levels: (i) annual estimates at the district level, (ii) quarterly estimates at the national level, and (iii) annual estimates at the division level for urban and rural areas. The sample for this survey was designed to achieve these three objectives. The paper explains how the three objectives are prioritized and how inconsistencies in achieving more than one objective can be reconciled. Further, the paper modifies the standard formulas to estimate the optimal sample size and the allocation of the sample across strata by explicitly taking into consideration the effect of clustering in the sample.

In addition to the direct health effects of the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, the pandemic has increased the risks of foregone non-COVID-19 healthcare. Likely, these risks are greatest in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where health systems are less resilient and economies more fragile. However, there are no published studies on the prevalence of foregone healthcare in LMICs during the pandemic. We used pooled data from phone surveys conducted between April and August 2020, covering 73 638 households in 39 LMICs. We estimated the prevalence of foregone care and the relative importance of various reported reasons for foregoing care, disaggregated by country income group and region. In the sample, 18.8% (95% CI 17.8-19.8%) of households reported not being able to access healthcare when needed. Financial barriers were the most-commonly self-reported reason for foregoing care, cited by 31.4% (28.6-34.3%) of households. More households in wealthier countries reported foregoing care for reasons related to COVID-19 [27.2% (22.5-31.8%) in upper-middle-income countries compared to 8.0% (4.7-11.3%) in low-income countries]; more households in poorer countries reported foregoing care due to financial reasons [65.6% (59.9-71.2%)] compared to 17.4% (13.1-21.6%) in upper-middle-income countries. A substantial proportion of households in LMICs had to forgo healthcare in the early months of the pandemic. While in richer countries this was largely due to fear of contracting COVID-19 or lockdowns, in poorer countries foregone care was due to financial constraints.

This paper intends to inform the effort of the Sri Lankan government to reform the targeting efficacy of its social protection programs, in particular, Samurdhi, which currently distributes benefits based on self-reported income. The paper develops a proxy means test for Sri Lanka based on the Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2016 and evaluates its performance for targeting benefits of Samurdhi. The paper considers a range of models and policy parameters that could be applied depending on data availability and country preferences. The results indicate that switching to a proxy means test could considerably improve the targeting performance of Samurdhi and would significantly improve the poverty impact of the program. The analysis finds that the performance of the proposed proxy means test model suffers when the coefficients are estimated from samples smaller than 1,000 households. However, the analysis does not find a similar loss of model performance when the model is estimated from seasonal data, provided the sample size is sufficiently large. The proposed model could be applied to targeting a variety of safety net programs after validating and refining the model by conducting a pilot survey.

This paper intends to inform the effort of the Sri Lankan government to reform the targeting efficacy of its social protection programs, in particular, Samurdhi, which currently distributes benefits based on self-reported income. We develop a Proxy Means Test (PMT) for Sri Lanka based on the Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2016 and evaluate its performance for targeting benefits of Samurdhi. The paper considers a range of models and policy parameters that could be applied depending on data availability and country preferences. The results indicate that switching to a PMT could considerably improve the targeting performance of Samurdhi and would significantly improve the poverty impact of the program. We find that the performance of the proposed PMT model suffers when the coefficients are estimated from samples smaller than 1,000 households. However, we do not find a similar loss of model performance when the model is estimated from seasonal data, provided the sample size is sufficiently large. The model we propose could be applied to the targeting of a variety of safety net programs after validating and refining our model by conducting a pilot survey.

The 2014 release of a new set of purchasing power parity conversion factors (PPPs) for 2011 has prompted a revision of the international poverty line. In order to preserve the integrity of the goalposts for international targets such as the Sustainable Development Goals and the World Bank's twin goals, the new poverty line was chosen so as to preserve the definition and real purchasing power of the earlier $1.25 line (in 2005 PPPs) in poor countries. Using the new 2011 PPPs, the new line equals $1.90 per person per day. The higher value of the line in US dollars reflects the fact that the new PPPs yield a relatively lower purchasing power of that currency vis-à-vis those of most poor countries. Because the line was designed to preserve real purchasing power in poor countries, the revisions lead to relatively small changes in global poverty incidence: from 14.5 percent in the old method to 14.1 percent in the new method for 2011. In 2012, the new reference year for the global count, we find 12.7 percent of the world's population, or 897 million people, are living in extreme poverty. There are changes in the regional composition of poverty, but they are also relatively small. This paper documents the detailed methodological decisions taken in the process of updating both the poverty line and the consumption and income distributions at the country level, including issues of inter-temporal and spatial price adjustments. It also describes various caveats, limitations, perils and pitfalls of the approach taken.