Suchergebnisse

The health and economic crises of 2020-21 have revived the debate on fiscal policy as a major tool for stabilization and meeting long-term goals. The massive surge in unemployment, due to the economic disruption of the lockdown measures, has increased the interest in policies that target employment directly instead of trying to achieve it via a general "demand push." One of the proposals currently under debate is the job guarantee. Under such a policy the government would act as an "employer of last resort" by offering a job to everyone that is able and wants to work but cannot find a job in the private sector. This paper argues that a carefully designed scheme of direct employment and public provision by the state - addressing both the low- and high-skill workforce - can have permanent effects and promote the economy's structural transformation, in particular by fostering energy transition and a lower carbon footprint. Starting from this point, a stock-flow consistent model is developed to study the long-run effect of the job guarantee's implementation, inspired by the work of Godin (2013) and Sawyer and Passarella (2021).

Nuestro aporte apunta a repensar el papel del tipo de cambio como herramienta para impulsar la inversión y el cambio estructural, mediante la construcción de un modelo macro analítico basado en Frenkel y Ros (2006), Ros (2015), Dvoskin y Feldman (2018). Consideramos, en particular, el costo financiero de la depreciación, que se genera por los desequilibrios en la posición del tipo de cambio en el balance de las empresas. El desequilibrio, como muestran hechos estilizados para México, se debe al exceso de bienes de capital importados y a la emisión de deuda en moneda extranjera. Los resultados del modelo muestran que las políticas cambiarias funcionan para promover la acumulación de capital y el cambio estructural, ...

This paper presents a set of growth and distribution models in developing countries which reflect distinct political economy regimes. These regimes give rise to different institutional frameworks that affect macroeconomic outcomes. We focus on three cases: (1) a pure developmentalist state, (2) conflicting claims between workers and the government, and (3) financialization under a neoliberal coalition. The equilibrium growth rate is defined, following the Keynesian tradition in open economy growth model, by the Balance-of-Payments constraint (Thirlwall, 1979). The paper relies on cumulative causation à la Kaldor in periods in which the depreciation of the real exchange rate raises temporarily the BOP-constrained equilibrium rate of growth. The transition between one equilibrium level of the RER to another allows (under certain conditions) for a process of learning that transforms the income elasticity of exports and hence the BOP-constrained rate of growth in the long run. The model produces a variety of outcomes that help explain the contradictory results reported in the empirical literature associated with different constellations of power and institutions.