Suchergebnisse

Numerous historical works have mentioned that trade routes were to blame for the spread of plague in European history, yet this relationship has never been tested by quantitative evidence. Here, we resolve the hypothetical role of trade routes through statistical analysis on the geo-referenced major trade routes in the early modern period and the 6,656 geo-referenced plague outbreak records in AD1347-1760. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimation results show that major trade routes played a dominant role in spreading plague in pre-industrial Europe. Furthermore, the negative correlation between plague outbreaks and their distance from major trade ports indicates the absence of a permanent plague focus in the inland areas of Europe. Major trade routes decided the major plague outbreak hotspots, while navigable rivers determined the geographic pattern of sporadic plague cases. A case study in Germany indicates that plague penetrated further into Europe through the local trade route network. Based on our findings, we propose the mechanism of plague transmission in historical Europe, which is imperative in demonstrating how pandemics were spread in recent human history. ; Hui Oi-Chow Trust Fund [201502172003, 201602172006]; Research Grants Council of The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China [HKU745113H, 17610715] ; This research was supported by the Hui Oi-Chow Trust Fund (201502172003 and 201602172006) and Research Grants Council of The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China (HKU745113H and 17610715).

Infectious diseases have become a rising challenge to mankind in a globalizing world. Yet, little is known about the inland transmission of infectious diseases in history. In this study, we based on the spatiotemporal information of 5559 plague (Yersinia pestis) outbreaks in Europe and its neighboring regions in AD1347-1760 to statistically examine the connection between navigable rivers and plague outbreak. Our results showed that 95.5% of plague happened within 10 km proximity of navigable rivers. Besides, the count of plague outbreak was positively correlated with the width of river and negatively correlated with the distance between city and river. This association remained robust in different regression model specifications. An increase of 100 m in the width of river and a shortening of 1 km distance between city and river resulted in 9 and 0.96 more plague outbreaks in our study period, respectively. Such relationship shows a declining trend over our study period due to the expansion of city and technological advancement in overland transportation. This study elucidates the key role of navigable river in the dissemination of plague in historical Europe. ; Hui Oi-Chow Trust Fund [201502172003, 201602172006]; Research Grants Council of The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China [HKU745113H, 17610715] ; This research was supported by the Hui Oi-Chow Trust Fund (201502172003 and 201602172006) and the Research Grants Council of The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China (HKU745113H and 17610715).