Suchergebnisse

Die Tochter, die ihr eigenes Altern vor sich sieht, erlebt das Sterben des Vaters, die Hilflosigkeit und plötzliche Vergreisung der zurückbleibenden Mutter. Die Tochter reagiert mit heftigen Gefühlsschwankungen, gegen die ihre Vernunft vergeblich protestiert: Jammer, Panik, Wut und der Wunsch nach Nähe. Sie erträgt nicht, wie die Mutter vergisst, wie sie in eine merkwürdig selektive Demenz gleitet, gerät in einen Zustand verzweifelter Auflehnung, als könnte die Mutter, wenn sie nur wollte, so bleiben, wie die Tochter sie ein Leben lang kannte. In ihre Auflehnung mischt sich Schuldgefühl: Sie organisiert den Umzug der Mutter ins Wohnstift, weil sie nicht mit ihr leben kann. Jeder Besuch, auch die Zeit zwischen den Besuchen, ist von dieser Ambivalenz der Gefühle gezeichnet. Es dauert lang, bis die Tochter sich abfinden, die Liebe wieder spüren, in Einverständnis mit der Mutter zusammen sein kann.

Abstract. In October 2023, the Baltic Sea coasts of Germany and Denmark experienced a severe storm surge, predominantly impacting the German state of Schleswig-Holstein and parts of southern Denmark. The surge led to extensive flooding in cities like Flensburg and Schleswig, causing the breaching of at least six (regional) dikes and causing over EUR 200 million in damages in Schleswig-Holstein. By chance, the peak water levels of this storm surge aligned well with those of recent hydrodynamic flood modelling studies of the region. This rare coincidence offers crucial insights for our understanding of flooding impacts, flood management, and modelling. By comparing those studies to the real-world example using extensive media reports, we aim to extract key insights and identify gaps to be tackled in order to improve flood risk modelling in the Baltic Sea region and beyond.

China experiences frequent coastal flooding, with nearly US$ 77 billion of direct economic losses and over 7,000 fatalities reported from 1989 to 2014. Flood damages are likely to grow due to climate change induced sea-level rise and increasing exposure if no further adaptation measures are taken. This paper quantifies potential damage and adaptation costs of coastal flooding in China over the 21st Century, including the effects of sea-level rise. It develops and utilises a new, detailed coastal database of China developed within the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) model framework. The refined database provides a more realistic spatial representation of coasts, with more than 2,700 coastal segments, covering 28,966 km of coastline. Over 50% of China's coast is artificial, representing defended coast and/or claimed land. Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs for China are assessed for different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) combinations representing climate change and socio-economic change and two adaptation strategies: no upgrade of currently existing defences and maintaining current protection levels. By 2100, 0.7-20.0 million people may be flooded/yr and US$ 67-56 3,308 billion damages/yr are projected without upgrade to defences. In contrast, maintaining the current protection level would reduce those numbers to 0.2-0.4 million people flooded/yr and US$ 22-60 billion/yr flood costs by 2100, with a protection investment costs of US$ 8-17 billion/yr. In 2100, maintaining current protection levels, dikes costs are two orders of magnitude smaller than flood costs across all scenarios, even without accounting for indirect damages. This research improves on earlier 4 national assessments of China by generating a wider range of projections, based on improved datasets. The information delivered in this study will help governments, policy-makers, insurance companies and local communities in China understand risks and design appropriate strategies to adapt to increasing coastal flood risk in an uncertain world.

Abstract. This study explores the uncertainty introduced in
global assessments of coastal flood exposure and risk when not accounting for
water-level attenuation due to land-surface characteristics. We implement a
range of plausible water-level attenuation values for characteristic
land-cover classes in the flood module of the Dynamic and Integrated
Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) modelling framework and assess the
sensitivity of flood exposure and flood risk indicators to differences in
attenuation rates. Results show a reduction of up to 44 % in area
exposure and even larger reductions in population exposure and expected flood
damages when considering water-level attenuation. The reductions vary by
country, reflecting the differences in the physical characteristics of the
floodplain as well as in the spatial distribution of people and assets in
coastal regions. We find that uncertainties related to not accounting for
water attenuation in global assessments of flood risk are of similar
magnitude to the uncertainties related to the amount of sea-level rise
expected over the 21st century. Despite using simplified assumptions to
account for the process of water-level attenuation, which depends on numerous
factors and their complex interactions, our results strongly suggest that an
improved understanding and representation of the temporal and spatial
variation of water levels across floodplains is essential for future impact
modelling.

China experiences frequent coastal flooding, with nearly US$ 77 billion of direct economic losses and over 7,000 fatalities reported from 1989 to 2014. Flood damages are likely to grow due to climate change induced sea-level rise and increasing exposure if no further adaptation measures are taken. This paper quantifies potential damage and adaptation costs of coastal flooding in China over the 21st Century, including the effects of sea-level rise. It develops and utilises a new, detailed coastal database of China developed within the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) model framework. The refined database provides a more realistic spatial representation of coasts, with more than 2700 coastal segments, covering 28,966 km of coastline. Over 50% of China's coast is artificial, representing defended coast and/or claimed land. Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs for China are assessed for different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) combinations representing climate change and socio-economic change and two adaptation strategies: no upgrade of currently existing defences and maintaining current protection levels. By 2100, 0.7–20.0 million people may be flooded/yr and US$ 67–3,308 billion damages/yr are projected without upgrade to defences. In contrast, maintaining the current protection level would reduce those numbers to 0.2–0.4 million people flooded/yr and US$ 22–60 billion/yr flood costs by 2100, with protection investment costs of US$ 8–17 billion/yr. In 2100, maintaining current protection levels, dikes costs are two orders of magnitude smaller than flood costs across all scenarios, even without accounting for indirect damages. This research improves on earlier national assessments of China by generating a wider range of projections, based on improved datasets. The information delivered in this study will help governments, policy-makers, insurance companies and local communities in China understand risks and design appropriate strategies to adapt to increasing coastal flood risk in an uncertain world.