Suchergebnisse

Abstract. Myocardial infarctions (MIs) are a major cause of death worldwide, and both high and low temperatures (i.e. heat and cold) may increase the risk of MI. The relationship between health impacts and climate is complex and influenced by a multitude of climatic, environmental, socio-demographic and behavioural factors. Here, we present a machine learning (ML) approach for predicting MI events based on multiple environmental and demographic variables. We derived data on MI events from the KORA MI registry dataset for Augsburg, Germany, between 1998 and 2015. Multivariable predictors include weather and climate, air pollution (PM10, NO, NO2, SO2 and O3), surrounding vegetation and demographic data. We tested the following ML regression algorithms: decision tree, random forest, multi-layer perceptron, gradient boosting and ridge regression. The models are able to predict the total annual number of MIs reasonably well (adjusted R2=0.62–0.71). Inter-annual variations and long-term trends are captured. Across models the most important predictors are air pollution and daily temperatures. Variables not related to environmental conditions, such as demographics need to be considered as well. This ML approach provides a promising basis to model future MI under changing environmental conditions, as projected by scenarios for climate and other environmental changes.

Objective To investigate the associations between air pollution and mortality, focusing on associations below current European Union, United States, and World Health Organization standards and guidelines. Design Pooled analysis of eight cohorts. Setting Multicentre project Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe (ELAPSE) in six European countries. Participants 325 367 adults from the general population recruited mostly in the 1990s or 2000s with detailed lifestyle data. Stratified Cox proportional hazard models were used to analyse the associations between air pollution and mortality. Western Europe-wide land use regression models were used to characterise residential air pollution concentrations of ambient fine particulate matter (PM 2.5), nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and black carbon. Main outcome measures Deaths due to natural causes and cause specific mortality. Results Of 325 367 adults followed-up for an average of 19.5 years, 47 131 deaths were observed. Higher exposure to PM 2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon was associated with significantly increased risk of almost all outcomes. An increase of 5 μg/m 3 in PM 2.5 was associated with 13% (95% confidence interval 10.6% to 15.5%) increase in natural deaths; the corresponding figure for a 10 μg/m 3 increase in nitrogen dioxide was 8.6% (7% to 10.2%). Associations with PM 2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon remained significant at low concentrations. For participants with exposures below the US standard of 12 μg/m 3 an increase of 5 μg/m 3 in PM 2.5 was associated with 29.6% (14% to 47.4%) increase in natural deaths. Conclusions Our study contributes to the evidence that outdoor air pollution is associated with mortality even at low pollution levels below the current European and North American standards and WHO guideline values. These findings are therefore an important contribution to the debate about revision of air quality limits, guidelines, and standards, and future assessments by the Global Burden of Disease.

OBJECTIVE To investigate the associations between air pollution and mortality, focusing on associations below current European Union, United States, and World Health Organization standards and guidelines. DESIGN Pooled analysis of eight cohorts. SETTING Multicentre project Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe (ELAPSE) in six European countries. PARTICIPANTS 325 367 adults from the general population recruited mostly in the 1990s or 2000s with detailed lifestyle data. Stratified Cox proportional hazard models were used to analyse the associations between air pollution and mortality. Western Europe-wide land use regression models were used to characterise residential air pollution concentrations of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and black carbon. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Deaths due to natural causes and cause specific mortality. RESULTS Of 325 367 adults followed-up for an average of 19.5 years, 47 131 deaths were observed. Higher exposure to PM2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon was associated with significantly increased risk of almost all outcomes. An increase of 5 mu g/m(3) in PM2.5 was associated with 13% (95% confidence interval 10.6% to 15.5%) increase in natural deaths; the corresponding figure for a 10 mu g/m(3) increase in nitrogen dioxide was 8.6% (7% to 10.2%). Associations with PM2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon remained significant at low concentrations. For participants with exposures below the US standard of 12 mu g/m(3) an increase of 5 mu g/m(3) in PM2.5 was associated with 29.6% (14% to 47.4%) increase in natural deaths. CONCLUSIONS Our study contributes to the evidence that outdoor air pollution is associated with mortality even at low pollution levels below the current European and North American standards and WHO guideline values. These findings are therefore an important contribution to the debate about revision of air quality limits, guidelines, and standards, and future assessments by the Global Burden of Disease.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the associations between air pollution and mortality, focusing on associations below current European Union, United States, and World Health Organization standards and guidelines. DESIGN: Pooled analysis of eight cohorts. SETTING: Multicentre project Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe (ELAPSE) in six European countries. PARTICIPANTS: 325 367 adults from the general population recruited mostly in the 1990s or 2000s with detailed lifestyle data. Stratified Cox proportional hazard models were used to analyse the associations between air pollution and mortality. Western Europe-wide land use regression models were used to characterise residential air pollution concentrations of ambient fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)), nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and black carbon. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Deaths due to natural causes and cause specific mortality. RESULTS: Of 325 367 adults followed-up for an average of 19.5 years, 47 131 deaths were observed. Higher exposure to PM(2.5), nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon was associated with significantly increased risk of almost all outcomes. An increase of 5 µg/m(3) in PM(2.5) was associated with 13% (95% confidence interval 10.6% to 15.5%) increase in natural deaths; the corresponding figure for a 10 µg/m(3) increase in nitrogen dioxide was 8.6% (7% to 10.2%). Associations with PM(2.5), nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon remained significant at low concentrations. For participants with exposures below the US standard of 12 µg/m(3) an increase of 5 µg/m(3) in PM(2.5) was associated with 29.6% (14% to 47.4%) increase in natural deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Our study contributes to the evidence that outdoor air pollution is associated with mortality even at low pollution levels below the current European and North American standards and WHO guideline values. These findings are therefore an important contribution to the debate about revision of air quality limits, guidelines, and standards, and future assessments by the Global Burden of Disease.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the associations between air pollution and mortality, focusing on associations below current European Union, United States, and World Health Organization standards and guidelines. DESIGN: Pooled analysis of eight cohorts. SETTING: Multicentre project Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe (ELAPSE) in six European countries. PARTICIPANTS: 325 367 adults from the general population recruited mostly in the 1990s or 2000s with detailed lifestyle data. Stratified Cox proportional hazard models were used to analyse the associations between air pollution and mortality. Western Europe-wide land use regression models were used to characterise residential air pollution concentrations of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and black carbon. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Deaths due to natural causes and cause specific mortality. RESULTS: Of 325 367 adults followed-up for an average of 19.5 years, 47 131 deaths were observed. Higher exposure to PM2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon was associated with significantly increased risk of almost all outcomes. An increase of 5 µg/m3 in PM2.5 was associated with 13% (95% confidence interval 10.6% to 15.5%) increase in natural deaths; the corresponding figure for a 10 µg/m3 increase in nitrogen dioxide was 8.6% (7% to 10.2%). Associations with PM2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon remained significant at low concentrations. For participants with exposures below the US standard of 12 µg/m3 an increase of 5 µg/m3 in PM2.5 was associated with 29.6% (14% to 47.4%) increase in natural deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Our study contributes to the evidence that outdoor air pollution is associated with mortality even at low pollution levels below the current European and North American standards and WHO guideline values. These findings are therefore an important contribution to the debate about revision of air quality limits, guidelines, and standards, and future assessments by the Global Burden of Disease.

International audience ; Objective To investigate the associations between air pollution and mortality, focusing on associations below current European Union, United States, and World Health Organization standards and guidelines. Design Pooled analysis of eight cohorts. Setting Multicentre project Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe (ELAPSE) in six European countries. Participants 325 367 adults from the general population recruited mostly in the 1990s or 2000s with detailed lifestyle data. Stratified Cox proportional hazard models were used to analyse the associations between air pollution and mortality. Western Europe-wide land use regression models were used to characterise residential air pollution concentrations of ambient fine particulate matter (PM 2.5), nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and black carbon. Main outcome measures Deaths due to natural causes and cause specific mortality. Results Of 325 367 adults followed-up for an average of 19.5 years, 47 131 deaths were observed. Higher exposure to PM 2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon was associated with significantly increased risk of almost all outcomes. An increase of 5 μg/m 3 in PM 2.5 was associated with 13% (95% confidence interval 10.6% to 15.5%) increase in natural deaths; the corresponding figure for a 10 μg/m 3 increase in nitrogen dioxide was 8.6% (7% to 10.2%). Associations with PM 2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon remained significant at low concentrations. For participants with exposures below the US standard of 12 μg/m 3 an increase of 5 μg/m 3 in PM 2.5 was associated with 29.6% (14% to 47.4%) increase in natural deaths. Conclusions Our study contributes to the evidence that outdoor air pollution is associated with mortality even at low pollution levels below the current European and North American standards and WHO guideline values. These findings are therefore an important contribution to the debate about revision of air quality limits, guidelines, and standards, and future assessments by the Global Burden of Disease.

International audience ; Objective To investigate the associations between air pollution and mortality, focusing on associations below current European Union, United States, and World Health Organization standards and guidelines. Design Pooled analysis of eight cohorts. Setting Multicentre project Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe (ELAPSE) in six European countries. Participants 325 367 adults from the general population recruited mostly in the 1990s or 2000s with detailed lifestyle data. Stratified Cox proportional hazard models were used to analyse the associations between air pollution and mortality. Western Europe-wide land use regression models were used to characterise residential air pollution concentrations of ambient fine particulate matter (PM 2.5), nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and black carbon. Main outcome measures Deaths due to natural causes and cause specific mortality. Results Of 325 367 adults followed-up for an average of 19.5 years, 47 131 deaths were observed. Higher exposure to PM 2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon was associated with significantly increased risk of almost all outcomes. An increase of 5 μg/m 3 in PM 2.5 was associated with 13% (95% confidence interval 10.6% to 15.5%) increase in natural deaths; the corresponding figure for a 10 μg/m 3 increase in nitrogen dioxide was 8.6% (7% to 10.2%). Associations with PM 2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon remained significant at low concentrations. For participants with exposures below the US standard of 12 μg/m 3 an increase of 5 μg/m 3 in PM 2.5 was associated with 29.6% (14% to 47.4%) increase in natural deaths. Conclusions Our study contributes to the evidence that outdoor air pollution is associated with mortality even at low pollution levels below the current European and North American standards and WHO guideline values. These findings are therefore an important contribution to the debate about revision of air quality limits, guidelines, and standards, and future assessments by the Global Burden of Disease.

International audience ; Objective To investigate the associations between air pollution and mortality, focusing on associations below current European Union, United States, and World Health Organization standards and guidelines. Design Pooled analysis of eight cohorts. Setting Multicentre project Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe (ELAPSE) in six European countries. Participants 325 367 adults from the general population recruited mostly in the 1990s or 2000s with detailed lifestyle data. Stratified Cox proportional hazard models were used to analyse the associations between air pollution and mortality. Western Europe-wide land use regression models were used to characterise residential air pollution concentrations of ambient fine particulate matter (PM 2.5), nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and black carbon. Main outcome measures Deaths due to natural causes and cause specific mortality. Results Of 325 367 adults followed-up for an average of 19.5 years, 47 131 deaths were observed. Higher exposure to PM 2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon was associated with significantly increased risk of almost all outcomes. An increase of 5 μg/m 3 in PM 2.5 was associated with 13% (95% confidence interval 10.6% to 15.5%) increase in natural deaths; the corresponding figure for a 10 μg/m 3 increase in nitrogen dioxide was 8.6% (7% to 10.2%). Associations with PM 2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon remained significant at low concentrations. For participants with exposures below the US standard of 12 μg/m 3 an increase of 5 μg/m 3 in PM 2.5 was associated with 29.6% (14% to 47.4%) increase in natural deaths. Conclusions Our study contributes to the evidence that outdoor air pollution is associated with mortality even at low pollution levels below the current European and North American standards and WHO guideline values. These findings are therefore an important contribution to the debate about revision of air quality limits, guidelines, and standards, and future assessments by the Global Burden of Disease.

International audience ; Objective To investigate the associations between air pollution and mortality, focusing on associations below current European Union, United States, and World Health Organization standards and guidelines. Design Pooled analysis of eight cohorts. Setting Multicentre project Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe (ELAPSE) in six European countries. Participants 325 367 adults from the general population recruited mostly in the 1990s or 2000s with detailed lifestyle data. Stratified Cox proportional hazard models were used to analyse the associations between air pollution and mortality. Western Europe-wide land use regression models were used to characterise residential air pollution concentrations of ambient fine particulate matter (PM 2.5), nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and black carbon. Main outcome measures Deaths due to natural causes and cause specific mortality. Results Of 325 367 adults followed-up for an average of 19.5 years, 47 131 deaths were observed. Higher exposure to PM 2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon was associated with significantly increased risk of almost all outcomes. An increase of 5 μg/m 3 in PM 2.5 was associated with 13% (95% confidence interval 10.6% to 15.5%) increase in natural deaths; the corresponding figure for a 10 μg/m 3 increase in nitrogen dioxide was 8.6% (7% to 10.2%). Associations with PM 2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon remained significant at low concentrations. For participants with exposures below the US standard of 12 μg/m 3 an increase of 5 μg/m 3 in PM 2.5 was associated with 29.6% (14% to 47.4%) increase in natural deaths. Conclusions Our study contributes to the evidence that outdoor air pollution is associated with mortality even at low pollution levels below the current European and North American standards and WHO guideline values. These findings are therefore an important contribution to the debate about revision of air quality limits, guidelines, and standards, and future assessments by the Global Burden of Disease.

International audience ; Objective To investigate the associations between air pollution and mortality, focusing on associations below current European Union, United States, and World Health Organization standards and guidelines. Design Pooled analysis of eight cohorts. Setting Multicentre project Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe (ELAPSE) in six European countries. Participants 325 367 adults from the general population recruited mostly in the 1990s or 2000s with detailed lifestyle data. Stratified Cox proportional hazard models were used to analyse the associations between air pollution and mortality. Western Europe-wide land use regression models were used to characterise residential air pollution concentrations of ambient fine particulate matter (PM 2.5), nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and black carbon. Main outcome measures Deaths due to natural causes and cause specific mortality. Results Of 325 367 adults followed-up for an average of 19.5 years, 47 131 deaths were observed. Higher exposure to PM 2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon was associated with significantly increased risk of almost all outcomes. An increase of 5 μg/m 3 in PM 2.5 was associated with 13% (95% confidence interval 10.6% to 15.5%) increase in natural deaths; the corresponding figure for a 10 μg/m 3 increase in nitrogen dioxide was 8.6% (7% to 10.2%). Associations with PM 2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon remained significant at low concentrations. For participants with exposures below the US standard of 12 μg/m 3 an increase of 5 μg/m 3 in PM 2.5 was associated with 29.6% (14% to 47.4%) increase in natural deaths. Conclusions Our study contributes to the evidence that outdoor air pollution is associated with mortality even at low pollution levels below the current European and North American standards and WHO guideline values. These findings are therefore an important contribution to the debate about revision of air quality limits, guidelines, and standards, and future assessments by the Global Burden of Disease.