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Abstract
This theory note argues that international norms, as currently understood by scholars of international relations, can be seen as emergent properties of a complex adaptive system (the international political system). Arising from the microlevel interactions of agents within and across various levels of analysis, they have the potential to become system properties that (a) influence the constitution, relationships, and behavior of agents within that system and (b) are not analytically reducible to the sum of the interactions between those agents. They also exhibit evolutionary dynamics common to complex, rather than merely complicated, systems. Thinking of norms in this manner helps point norms scholars toward particular spaces and methodologies of research. After a brief resume of complexity theory in IR, the note proceeds with an introduction to complex systems theory. It then explores the conceptual nexus between norms theory and complexity. It finishes by suggesting the ways in which understanding norms as complex emergent phenomena might influence norms research more broadly.

This theory note argues that international norms, as currently understood by scholars of international relations, can be seen as emergent properties of a complex adaptive system (the international political system). Arising from the microlevel interactions of agents within and across various levels of analysis, they have the potential to become system properties that (a) influence the constitution, relationships, and behavior of agents within that system and (b) are not analytically reducible to the sum of the interactions between those agents. They also exhibit evolutionary dynamics common to complex, rather than merely complicated, systems. Thinking of norms in this manner helps point norms scholars toward particular spaces and methodologies of research. After a brief resume of complexity theory in IR, the note proceeds with an introduction to complex systems theory. It then explores the conceptual nexus between norms theory and complexity. It finishes by suggesting the ways in which understanding norms as complex emergent phenomena might influence norms research more broadly.

Norms are one of the most widely studied topics of contemporary International Relations scholarship. Norms scholars have created an extensive theoretical and empirical literature to identify, describe, and analyze the emergence, diffusion, and effect of norms in the international system. However, this scholarship is inconsistent in how it treats state choice and norm diffusion; in particular, it is divided between theories that emphasize continuity and those that allow for change in the process of norm adoption and implementation. This article suggests that the problem can be remedied through a closer examination of the structure of norms themselves. It first shows that the prevailing understanding of contemporary international norms is that they have a tripartite structure, consisting of a problem, a value, and a behavior. These structural components can be combined to create norms as traditionally understood. The article also proposes a new concept — a "norm cluster" — which allows for multiple combinations of conceptually interlinked but distinct values and behaviors, offering multiple acceptable solutions to similar and interlocking problems. The actors that adopt a norm cluster, rather than a single norm or set of norms, may be recognized as a family group: although no cluster adopter need perfectly re-enact the choices of others, the resulting variation in outcomes is accepted as "close enough." The article argues that focusing on norm components and clusters, rather than on single norms as currently understood, allows for a more precise understanding of how principle-based action diffuses and evolves in the international system.

Norms are one of the most widely studied topics of contemporary International Relations scholarship. Norms scholars have created an extensive theoretical and empirical literature to identify, describe, and analyze the emergence, diffusion, and effect of norms in the international system. However, this scholarship is inconsistent in how it treats state choice and norm diffusion; in particular, it is divided between theories that emphasize continuity and those that allow for change in the process of norm adoption and implementation. This article suggests that the problem can be remedied through a closer examination of the structure of norms themselves. It first shows that the prevailing understanding of contemporary international norms is that they have a tripartite structure, consisting of a problem, a value, and a behavior. These structural components can be combined to create norms as traditionally understood. The article also proposes a new concept — a "norm cluster" — which allows for multiple combinations of conceptually interlinked but distinct values and behaviors, offering multiple acceptable solutions to similar and interlocking problems. The actors that adopt a norm cluster, rather than a single norm or set of norms, may be recognized as a family group: although no cluster adopter need perfectly re-enact the choices of others, the resulting variation in outcomes is accepted as "close enough." The article argues that focusing on norm components and clusters, rather than on single norms as currently understood, allows for a more precise understanding of how principle-based action diffuses and evolves in the international system.

Although annual data are commonly used to model linear trends and changes in trends of disease incidence, monthly data could provide additional resolution for statistical inferences. Because monthly data may exhibit seasonal patterns, we need to consider seasonally adjusted models, which can be theoretically complex and computationally intensive. We propose a combination of methods to reduce the complexity of modeling seasonal data and to provide estimates for a change in trend when the timing and magnitude of the change are unknown. To assess potential changes in trend, we first used autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to analyze the residuals and forecast errors, followed by multiple ARIMA intervention models to estimate the timing and magnitude of the change. Because the variable corresponding to time of change is not a statistical parameter, its confidence bounds cannot be estimated by intervention models. To model timing of change and its credible interval, we developed a Bayesian technique. We avoided the need for computationally intensive simulations by deriving a closed form for the posterior distribution of the time of change. Using a combination of ARIMA and Bayesian methods, we estimated the timing and magnitude of change in trend for tuberculosis cases in the United States. Published 2012. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Abstract Background Tuberculosis (TB) in developed countries has historically been associated with poverty and low socioeconomic status (SES). In the past quarter century, TB in the United States has changed from primarily a disease of native-born to primarily a disease of foreign-born persons, who accounted for more than 60% of newly-diagnosed TB cases in 2010. The purpose of this study was to assess the association of SES with rates of TB in U.S.-born and foreign-born persons in the United States, overall and for the five most common foreign countries of origin. Methods National TB surveillance data for 1996–2005 was linked with ZIP Code-level measures of SES (crowding, unemployment, education, and income) from U.S. Census 2000. ZIP Codes were grouped into quartiles from low SES to high SES and TB rates were calculated for foreign-born and U.S.-born populations in each quartile. Results TB rates were highest in the quartiles with low SES for both U.S.-born and foreign-born populations. However, while TB rates increased five-fold or more from the two highest to the two lowest SES quartiles among the U.S.-born, they increased only by a factor of 1.3 among the foreign-born. Conclusions Low SES is only weakly associated with TB among foreign-born persons in the United States. The traditional associations of TB with poverty are not sufficient to explain the epidemiology of TB among foreign-born persons in this country and perhaps in other developed countries. TB outreach and research efforts that focus only on low SES will miss an important segment of the foreign-born population.