Suchergebnisse

We apply decision analysis to an important decision in the sport of curling. In particular, we examine the choice between taking a single point or blanking an end in the latter stages of a curling game. There are benefits and drawbacks associated with each alternative. Taking a single point provides the team with an additional point but transfers the last-shot advantage to the opposition. Blanking an end foregoes an additional point but retains the last-shot advantage. Based on the observation of world-class competitions, North American curlers will always attempt to blank an end, while their European counterparts have been known to opt for the single point. We develop a decision tree to conceptualize the choices. Then, we use data from over 900 national championship curling games to empirically determine the expected values of each alternative. Our results indicate that blanking the end is the better alternative.

Peer Reviewed ; Undesirable delays in construction projects impose excessive costs and precipitate exacerbated durations. Investigating Iran, a developing Middle Eastern country, this paper focuses on the reasons for construction project delays. We conducted several interviews with owners, contractors, consultants, industry experts and regulatory bodies to accurately ascertain specific delay factors. Based on the results of our industry surveys, a statistical model was developed to quantitatively determine each delay factor's importance in construction project management. The statistical model categorises the delay factors under four major classes and determines the most significant delay factors in each class: owner defects, contractor defects, consultant defects and law, regulation and other general defects. The most significant delay factors in the owner defects category are lack of attention to inflation and inefficient budgeting schedule. In the contractor defects category, the most significant delay factors are inaccurate budgeting and resource planning, weak cash flow and inaccurate pricing and bidding. As for the consultant defects delay factors such as inaccurate first draft and inaccuracies in technical documents have the most contribution to the defects. On the other hand, outdated standard mandatory items in cost lists, outdated mandatory terms in contracts and weak governmental budgeting are the most important delay factors in the law, regulation and other general defects. Moreover, regression models demonstrate that a significant difference exists between the initial and final project duration and cost. According to the models, the average delay per year is 5.9 months and the overall cost overrun is 15.4%. Our findings can be useful in at least two ways: first, resolving the root causes of particularly important delay factors would significantly streamline project performance and second, the regression models could assist project managers and companies with revising initial timelines and estimated costs. This study does not consider all types of construction projects in Iran: the scope is limited to certain types of private and publicly funded projects as will be described. The data for this study has been gathered through a detailed questionnaire survey.